Goldman downgrades Evolution, Newmont ahead of Australia gold earnings season
Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs downgraded Evolution Mining to Sell and Newmont Corporation’s ASX-listed shares to Neutral, given valuation concerns and lacklustre production growth ahead of June-quarter results and 2026 outlooks from Australian gold producers.
The brokerage flagged a “broadly flat” gold production profile for Evolution over the next two years, with output expected to dip slightly in FY26 and further in FY27 due to stockpile reliance at its Cowal operation.
While study updates at Ernest Henry and Northparkes could offer some upside, Goldman noted these were already anticipated by the market.
Shares of Evolution are trading at a premium to large-cap peers, the note said, despite limited growth visibility.
FY26 output is forecast at 735,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$1,585/oz, following FY25 production of 747,000 ounces at A$1,635/oz.
Newmont, which reports on a calendar year, remains one of the more defensive names in the sector, according to Goldman.
However, recent share price outperformance has brought valuations in line with peers, leading to the downgrade. Second-quarter production is expected to total 1.38 million ounces at a gold AISC of about US$1,850/oz, helping generate estimated EBITDA of US$2.63 billion.
Goldman reaffirmed its Buy rating on Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST), citing solid FY25 sales of 1.634 million ounces and FY26 guidance of up to 1.85 million ounces.
Still, cost pressures are mounting: NST’s FY26 AISC guidance of A$2,300–2,700/oz came in above expectations, reflecting sector-wide inflation and increased capital intensity.
Among mid-cap producers, the bank continues to prefer Westgold and Valor, and maintains a Sell on Regis Resources (OTC:RGRNF).
Don't miss out on the next big opportunity! Stay ahead of the curve with ProPicks – 6 model portfolios fueled by AI stock picks with a stellar performance this year..
In 2024 alone, ProPicks' AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record.
With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech Stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.
So if RGRNF is on your watchlist, it could be very wise to know whether or not it made the ProPicks lists.
