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China’s Last ‘Too-Big-to-Fail’ Housing Giant Loses State Support | Bloomberg

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China’s new homes demand to remain well short of 2017 peak, says Goldman Sachs BEIJING (Reuters) -Demand for new homes in China is likely to remain substantially below the market’s 2017 peak over the next few years, Goldman Sachs said late on Monday in a projection suggesting that the world’s second-biggest economy faces a long property slump. China’s property sector, which accounted for roughly a quarter of economic activity at its peak, entered a prolonged slump in 2021, with market sentiment hammered by the struggles of debt-laden developers trying to deliver homes for which buyers had already paid. Demand for new homes is likely to be less than 5 million units per year, significantly below the 2017 peak of 20 million units, the investment bank said. New home prices fell in May, extending a two-year stagnation, official data showed on Monday, highlighting sectoral challenges despite several rounds of economic policy support measures. "Our earlier estimates did not account for the fact that investment demand in China could turn negative as owners sell vacant apartments, and that the 2015-18 government-led shanty town redevelopment should result in fewer demolitions in subsequent years," Goldman Sachs said. With the government’s focus shifting towards urban renewal and rehabilitation rather than demolition, average demand for homes due to demolition will decline from 4.7 million units in the 2010s to 2.7 million units in the 2020s, the bank added.

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China’s home prices dip in May, extending two-year stagnation BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s new home prices fell in May, extending a two-year long stagnation, official data showed on Monday, highlighting challenges in the sector despite several rounds of policy support measures. New home prices fell 0.2% month-on-month in May after showing no growth the previous month, according to Reuters calculations based on data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). From a year earlier, prices fell 3.5% in May from a 4.0% decline the previous month. The property sector, once a key driver of growth for the world’s second-largest economy and accounting for roughly a quarter of economic activity at its peak, holds around 70% of Chinese household wealth. The market entered a prolonged slump in 2021, with debt-laden developers struggling to deliver homes that buyers had already paid for, further denting consumer confidence. After policymakers announced supportive policies in recent months as Beijing braced for extended trade tensions with the U.S., positive signs have emerged in the housing market. A private survey by property researcher China Index Academy showed the average price of new homes across 100 cities in China climbed 0.30% in May, more than doubling from a month earlier. Some cities in China have also been easing restrictions on housing provident fund programmes for individual mortgage loans in recent weeks, as the central bank’s rate cut for the loans went into effect in early May. Still, challenges persist. Separately, official data on Monday showed property investment fell 10.7% year-on-year, while sales by floor area dropped 2.9% in the January-May period. At a cabinet meeting on Friday, Chinese leaders pledged to optimise policies to boost demand, improve supply, and stabilise the property market more effectively. Which stock should you buy in your very next trade? With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

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UBS survey on China housing shows cooling purchase intentions in lower-tier cities Investing.com -- UBS Evidence Lab’s 20th China Housing Survey reveals a softening in home purchase intentions across China, with tier 1 cities showing more stability than lower-tier markets. The survey, conducted from March 28 to April 21, gathered responses from 2,500 participants and found purchase intentions had weakened compared to September 2024 findings. Housing price expectations remain pessimistic, with 42% of respondents anticipating further price declines over the next 12 months. Among these respondents, 47% expect prices to fall by up to 10%, while 37% predict declines between 10-20%. The survey also revealed that 47% of homeowners now report paper losses, up significantly from 29% in September 2024. Regional disparities are evident in the findings, with tier 1 cities maintaining small paper gains for homeowners while those in tier 2 and tier 3 cities reported net paper losses. This negative wealth effect may continue to pressure household consumption across China, according to UBS. The survey identified several factors dampening market sentiment, including concerns about stalled construction projects, soft income outlook, and expectations of further price declines. More potential buyers than in previous surveys cited housing inventory destocking as an important consideration in their purchasing decisions. UBS forecasts China’s property market downturn will continue through 2025, though with a less severe decline in property activities compared to 2024. The firm suggests the government needs additional pro-growth policies, further mortgage rate cuts, improvements to destocking programs, and increased financing support for both developers and homebuyers to improve market conditions. This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Despite government stimulus like mortgage cuts, property investment fell 10.3% and sales shrank 2.8% in early 2025. Developers’ debt troubles and weak buyer confidence continue to weigh on the market.
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