What do cancelled China freight orders mean for supply and demand?
Investing.com -- A steep drop in outbound shipments from China to the U.S. has prompted fresh concerns about inventory shortages, but the retail sector appears well-stocked in the near term due to earlier import surges, according to Bernstein research.
China-to-U.S. container volumes fell 35% from March to mid-April, and data from the Port of Los Angeles projects a 30% year-over-year decline in scheduled arrivals for May.
Blank sailings by ocean carriers on Pacific routes have surged, rising from 60,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in week 15 to 367,800 across weeks 16 through 19.
Freight rates from Asia to the U.S. have dropped by about two-thirds between January and April, reflecting weak shipping demand, Bernstein said.
Despite these declines, retailers are not facing immediate stockouts. The slowdown in April and May follows a surge in import activity earlier this year.
U.S. importers had boosted orders in late 2024, anticipating policy shifts following the November election.
As a result, January through March import volumes rose 10% to 25% year over year across key discretionary categories, with apparel up 14%, home goods up 14%, and footwear up 8%.
This early-year pull-forward, particularly from China, was most visible at the Port of Long Beach, where inbound volumes rose 27% year over year in the first quarter. China accounts for roughly two-thirds of cargo entering the port.
The backdrop for demand also helps mitigate inventory concerns. Over the last decade, U.S. discretionary goods imports have shown minimal annual growth, about 1% for apparel and footwear and 5% for home goods.
This year’s gains, driven by front-loaded shipments, are atypical and provide a buffer against current declines.
Bernstein notes that warnings of “Covid-like shortages” are overstated, particularly given the current slowdown in consumer demand.
While retailers may be insulated for now, logistics providers are likely to feel the impact sooner. With inbound volumes set to decline sharply, ripple effects are expected across rail intermodal, port drayage, and trucking.
“Import volumes are expected to be down 30% or more on the West Coast, with more significant declines expected on the US East Coast,” the brokerage said.
Longer term, rising inventory costs from tariffs may increase demand for faster freight solutions, with shippers favoring speed over scale.
But in the near term, the steep cut in China freight orders signals weaker shipping and transport activity, not a supply crisis, at least not yet.
