Fed Officials Resist Rate Cuts
Most Fed officials oppose additional rate cuts as inflation remains high & labor market stabilizes, contradicting Warsh's vision for lower rates $JPM
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As bitcoin falls toward $80k, here's why Fed Chair Warsh may not be enough to revive the crypto

Bitcoin Plummets Toward $80k! Will $JPM-backed Fed nominee Kevin Warsh spark a crypto revival?
Fed may shift tone to favor rate cuts as Trump picks Warsh to replace Jerome Powell
#Crypto #Bitcoin #FedRateCuts

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Major Investment Banks Predict a Weaker Dollar | Business Turkey Today Major banks including Bank of America and Commerzbank expect the US dollar to weaken as Fed rate cuts narrow interest differentials and political risks rise, while the euro gains strength against the ...

Major Investment Banks Predict a Weaker Dollar businessturkeytoday.com/major-invest...

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📉 Fed: 25bp rate cut likely in Dec. 2025, third in a row.
⚖️ 2026: Slower cuts, one per quarter expected.
🏠 Mortgages: Rates moderate, stay mid-low 6% range.

#FedRateCuts #InterestRates #EconomicOutlook #MortgageRates
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Is another ‘risk management’ Fed rate cut coming this week? - Scotsman Guide Fed weighs October rate cut as inflation rises and job growth slows, though a government data blackout clouds the outlook.

🤔 Possible Fed rate cut on the horizon folks! It's a tricky balance between global risks and a strong domestic economy. Let's keep an eye on this.
#KBRGInsights #FedRateCuts #InterestRates

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The Fed’s Rate Cuts: Steering Through Economic Uncertainty in 2025 Introduction The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to lower interest rates has captured headlines, signaling a shift in its approach to managing the U.S. economy. On September 18, 2025, the Fed cut it...

The Fed just cut rates to 4%-4.25%, the first drop in 9 months! Aimed at a wobbly job market, but inflation and Trump’s pressure complicate things.

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et Volatility Ahead | Before the Bell Stocks head into today’s session on edge as the risk lies to the downside if the Fed disappoints. Adding to the mix, a record options expiration Friday could bring heightened volatility for the rest of the week. Money flows continue to chase equities, but the biggest rallies have come from the most-shorted stocks. International and emerging markets are also showing strong momentum, with many trading well above their moving averages. Still, a widening gap persists between S&P equal-weight and market-cap indexes, as AI-driven tech remains the primary driver of gains. Meanwhile, bond yields keep sliding as markets price in rate cuts, but that message may be signaling deeper economic concerns. Are stocks right to keep rallying, or is the bond market flashing the real warning? 👉 In this pre-market video, we break down: The Fed’s influence on stocks and bond yields How options expiration could fuel volatility Why AI stocks continue to dominate while the broader market lags What international markets are signaling for investors Stay ahead of the market—subscribe for daily updates. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next RIA Dynamic Learning Series event, "Savvy Medicare Planning," September 18, 2025: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/savvy-medicare-planning-what-baby-boomers-need-to-know-about-medicare/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #StockMarketToday #FedRateCuts #OptionsExpiration #AIStocks #BondYields #SP500 #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Markets are betting on Fed rate cuts and tax cuts, but the Bond market is signaling different concerns; which one is right?
Catch Lance Roberts' latest Before the Bell Report on our YouTube channel now:
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US Stocks Rise as Strategists See Fed Rate Cuts Spurring Gains - Bloomberg.com US Stocks Rise as Strategists See Fed Rate Cuts Spurring Gains  Bloomberg.com

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Fed rate cuts, U.S. growth seen supporting S&P 500 gains, Goldman analysts say Investing.com - "Imminent" Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a re-acceleration of growth next year will help support more gains in the benchmark S&P 500, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. In a note to clients, the strategists led by David Kostin said the bank’s economists anticipate that the Fed will slash its key funds rate three times over the rest of this year. The Fed is widely anticipated to slash borrowing costs by at least 25 basis points at its upcoming gathering next week, as officials look to bolster what appears to be a slowing labor market. But some debate continues to hover around the Fed’s outlook for the rest of the year, especially as inflation -- the other pillar of the central bank’s dual mandate -- lingers above its 2% target level. More U.S. inflation data points, including a look at consumer and producer prices, are set to be released in the coming days. Still, the Goldman analysts predicted that the U.S. economy is likely to avoid a recession, despite the impact of sweeping import tariffs slapped on a number of trading partners by President Donald Trump. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500, which Goldman noted has "typically generated positive returns" during past Fed rate-cutting cycles in which the economy has expanded and averted a downturn, is seen rising by 2% through the end of 2025 and 6% by the middle of next year. This would correspond to an end-2025 price level of 6600 and 6900 by mid-2026, the analysts said. The S&P finished on Friday at 6481.50. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. They added that earnings will likely be the main drivers of these higher returns, flagging that recent lofty valuations are already embedding in "an optimistic economic and fundamental outlook." So-called "catch up" trades in lagging pockets of the market could also be seen, although a potential unwinding of the multi-year boom in enthusiasm around artificial intellgience may lead to a reversal in other parts of the index, the analysts argued. Heading into the final quarter of 2025, they recommended that investors keep tabs on alternative asset managers, "whose valuations have yet to recover back" to highs notched after the 2024 U.S. presidential election even as capital market conditions improve. Companies with high floating rate debt are also projected to benefit from interest rate cuts, while gold mining stocks are tipped to be boosted by a jump in bullion prices. Which stocks should you consider in your very next trade? The best opportunities often hide in plain sight—buried among thousands of stocks you'd never have time to research individually. That's why smart investors use our Stock Screener with 50+ predefined screens and 160+ customizable filters to surface hidden gems instantly. For example, the Piotroski's Picks method averages 23% annual returns by focusing on financial strength, and you can get it as a standalone screen. Momentum Masters catches stocks gaining serious traction, while Blue-Chip Bargains finds undervalued giants. With screens for dividends, growth, value, and more, you'll discover opportunities others miss. Our current favorite screen is Under $10/share, which is great for discovering stocks trading under $10 with recent price momentum showing some very impressive returns!

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GBPUSD erased all the losses following the soft NFP report. What's next? Fundamental Overview The USD sold off across the board on Friday following another soft NFP report. The dovish bets on the Fed increased as a result and the market is now expecting three rate cuts by year-end (70 bps). Moreover, we have also an 8% probability of a 50 bps cut in September but that will likely happen only if we get a soft CPI report on Thursday. In that case, the greenback will likely weaken further into the FOMC meeting. Overall, if one zooms out, the US dollar continues to range although the dovish bets on the Fed keep weighing on the currency. Part of that could be the fact that the bearish positioning on the dollar could be overstretched and we might be at the peak of the dovish pricing. In fact, if the Fed cuts trigger stronger economic activity in the next months, the rate cuts in 2026 could be priced out and support the dollar. Nevertheless, the trend is still skewed to the downside, and we might need strong data to reverse it. On the GBP side, nothing has changed fundamentally. The BoE delivered a hawkish cut at the last meeting and since then the data has been coming on the hotter side. In fact, the latest UK CPI surprised once again to the upside and the latest Flash PMIs, although mixed, showed strength and persistent inflationary pressures. Last week, we got a selloff in the pound across the board as the UK 30yr yield jumped to a new cycle high. That was eventually erased in the following days and especially after the soft NFP report. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe On the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD sold off all the way back to the key 1.3368 support after the UK 30yr yields jumped to a new cycle high but eventually bounced off of the support. The price is now back near the 1.3590 resistance. If the price gets there, the sellers will likely step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop back into the 1.3368 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.3790 level next. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to position for a drop into the 1.3368 support next. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce around the trendline, while the sellers will look for a break. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming Catalysts On Wednesday we get the US PPI report. On Thursday, we get the US CPI report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the UK GDP and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

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🎯 Las Vegas Buyers: Mortgage Rates Are Dropping!

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Hits $3,560, Can Rally Extend Toward $4,000? Trading New Gold (XAU/USD) climbs above $3,560 to record highs as Fed rate cut bets, dollar weakness, and central bank demand fuel a bullish push toward $3...

🚨 Gold prices soar to new heights as Fed uncertainty and central bank demand fuel rally 📈

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Hits $3,560, Can Rally Extend Toward $4,000? Trading New Gold (XAU/USD) climbs above $3,560 to record highs as Fed rate cut bets, dollar weakness, and central bank demand fuel a bullish push toward $3...

🚨 Gold prices soar to new heights as Fed uncertainty and central bank demand fuel rally 📈

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Fed rate cuts and doubts over independence to keep U.S. dollar under pressure: Reuters Poll By Sarupya Ganguly BENGALURU (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar will weaken over coming months as market participants ponder the Federal Reserve’s future independence and how many more rate cuts it may deliver, a Reuters survey of foreign exchange strategists showed on Wednesday. The greenback, down nearly 10% against a basket of major currencies this year, has been the worst performer among them. The short-dollar trade has dominated FX markets since late March, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Worries about the inflationary impact of tariffs, an enormous tax cut and spending law and repeated White House attempts to interfere with the world’s most powerful central bank have reversed the dollar’s fortunes after a multi-year run of strength. A weaker dollar trend will likely persist in the near-term as interest rate futures show markets fully pricing in two Fed cuts this year and possibly another in early 2026. Nearly 80% of respondents, 39 of 50, said net-short bets would either rise further by end-September or remain around current levels, according to the August 29-September 3 Reuters poll. The remaining 11 said short bets would decrease. No one chose "a reversal to net-longs". "A big risk is the fact everybody seems to think the dollar is likely to weaken, which means that positioning is all one way. That’s sometimes a factor that should make us a little bit more wary," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. "If we get a lot of inflationary news from the U.S., there certainly would be room for pullbacks in favor of the dollar." FX strategists in Reuters polls, who have broadly accurately predicted the dollar’s slide this year, forecast the euro, currently $1.17, to climb steadily to a median $1.18 and $1.19 in three and six months respectively. It was then predicted to trade at $1.20 in a year: the highest survey median since September 2021. In the meantime, U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated pressure on Chair Jerome Powell to slash rates to 1% and his efforts to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage fraud allegations are testing the boundaries of presidential power. Trump’s Fed board nominee Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, has called for sharply lower rates, argued tariffs have little inflationary impact and proposed Fed governance reforms that would give the president greater control, including the power to dismiss its leadership at will. "The dollar will face some pressure to soften into the end of the year and it’s going to be a function of two things: one, a resumption of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle and second, the market’s questions with regard to the Fed’s independence," said Paul Mackel, head of FX research at HSBC. (Other stories from the September foreign exchange poll) AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes dozens of winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. Year to date, 3 out of 4 global portfolios are beating their benchmark indexes, with 98% in the green. Our flagship Tech Titans strategy doubled the S&P 500 within 18 months, including notable winners like Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). Which stock will be the next to soar?

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7 portfolio stocks that stand to benefit most from Fed rate cuts - CNBC 7 portfolio stocks that stand to benefit most from Fed rate cuts  CNBC

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Morgan Stanley sees Fed rate cuts beginning in September Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley now expects the Federal Reserve to begin lowering interest rates in September, citing a shift in tone from Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole. “We now forecast Fed rate cuts beginning in September,” analysts at Morgan Stanley wrote, adding that Powell “signaled increased concern over labor market risks and leaned toward rate cuts for risk management.” The bank’s baseline is for a 25 basis point reduction next month, followed by another 25 basis point cut in December. Morgan Stanley projects the Federal Open Market Committee will then move to “quarterly cuts of 25bps to a terminal of 2.75-3.0% by end-2026.” That compares with a prior forecast that the Fed would stay on hold until March 2026 before cutting to a 2.50-2.75% range by year-end. The firm cautioned that “a September cut is not a certainty,” noting that “payrolls of 225k in August and another clear acceleration in tariff-related inflation could keep them on hold.” Analysts also said a larger up-front move would require “sizeable payroll declines,” with potential dissents at the September meeting. Morgan Stanley emphasized that “the net effect of our change in the Fed’s policy path is fairly minor. We project the Fed to cut sooner, but finish its cutting cycle about where we had forecasted previously. On net, we have 25bp fewer rate cuts now than before. A Fed that cuts sooner may cut less.” 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. The note added that “what has changed, in our mind, is the Fed’s reaction to this data flow,” with policymakers “putting more weight on downside risks to labor markets” despite inflation likely staying above the 2% target into year-end. ProPicks AI analyzes thousands of stocks using 100+ institutional-grade financial metrics to identify the strongest opportunities. With 80+ strategies across global markets, you might be surprised where MS appears. Our flagship Tech Titans strategy doubled the S&P 500 within 18 months, including notable winners like Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). Each strategy refreshes monthly with 10-20 high-conviction picks. Even if MS isn't currently featured, you'll discover similar opportunities in the same industry or theme—stocks the AI identifies before they breakout. Now up to 50% off while our Summer Sale lasts.

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12 Small-Cap Stocks That Should Outperform as the Fed Cuts Rates - Barron's 12 Small-Cap Stocks That Should Outperform as the Fed Cuts Rates  Barron's

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The bond market is flashing a potentially worrisome sign about Fed rate cuts The Treasury yield curve has been steepening on rate-cut expectations — but also for inflation concerns

@MarketWatch #MarketWatch
The #bondmarket is flashing a potentially worrisome sign about #Fedratecuts
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Fed Rate Cuts on the Horizon – But Mortgage Rates May Not Follow The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, but will mortgage rates follow? Learn why mortgage rates move differently, what drives volatility, and how buyers can prepare in 2025.

The chatter about Fed rate cuts in 2025 is everywhere, but what does it mean for your mortgage rate? 🧐

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Hedge funds snap up US stocks ahead of likely Fed rate cuts, says Goldman Sachs LONDON (Reuters) -Hedge funds bought U.S. stocks at the fastest pace in seven weeks during the week to August 15, in anticipation of a long awaited interest rate cut expected from the Federal Reserve in September, according to a Goldman Sachs client note. Hedge funds bought indices and financial products that rise and fall on economic health, said the Goldman note seen by Reuters on Monday. That move into U.S. shares comes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s annual central bank gathering in Jackson Hole later this week at which Fed chief Jerome Powell could shed more light on the rate outlook. Investors price in a roughly 85% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed cut next month, money market pricing suggests. Recent data has suggested that while U.S. tariffs have not filtered into headline consumer prices yet, jobs market weakness could nudge the central bank to take a more dovish stance. According to the Goldman note, speculators dumped defensive stocks meant to do well in harsher economic circumstances, such as health care and consumer staples. They also exited trades on utilities stocks which are often used as a proxy for interest rate trading. Utilities, staples and health care stocks were sold in the largest amounts in four months, said Goldman. Financials stocks were also modestly net sold yet saw the largest increase in gross trading activity since November 2024 and the second largest in five years. All geographic regions benefited from hedge fund stock buying except for Europe. Don't miss out on the next big opportunity! Stay ahead of the curve with ProPicks AI – 6 model portfolios fueled by AI stock picks with a stellar performance this year... In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech Stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies. So if GS is on your watchlist, it could be very wise to know whether or not it made the ProPicks AI lists.

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Morgan Stanley outlines five paths to possible Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025 Investing.com - A deterioration in the labor market that extends beyond government and manufacturing and into the key services sector could persuade the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates by the end of this year, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. However, in a note, the analysts led by Michael Gapen said they still anticipate that the central bank will leave rates unchanged for the remainder of 2025. The Fed is set to kick off its latest two-day gathering on Tuesday, with policymakers widely projected to keep borrowing costs steady at the end of the meeting. Many officials have backed a wait-and-see attitude to future rate actions, citing uncertainty around the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda on the wider economy. But the Morgan Stanley strategists suggested that more impetus for a cut could come from a sharp drop in U.S. payrolls of 50,000 or more per month, "centered in services." The services sector is major driver of the broader economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of overall activity. A bevy of labor market data is due out this week, including the all-important monthly jobs report. Economists project that the U.S. added 108,000 roles in July, down from 147,000 in the previous month. Unexpected immigration changes could also lead the Fed to roll out earlier rate reductions, the Morgan Stanley analysts predicted. Although they anticipated that stronger immigration controls will sharply curtail growth in the labor force, the brokerage noted that the projection could be proved wrong if there are more undetected border crossings than they expect. This could support participation in the labor market, bolstering the case for a Fed cut. Another scenario revolves around disinflation in the services sector, which could offset an upward impulse on prices from tariffs, the analysts noted. This may give the Fed more confidence that trade-related inflationary pressures are "transitory," they added. The argument for a rate drawdown by December could also be boosted by a "low, but elongated" pass-through of tariff costs to consumers from companies that leaves the Fed’s preferred inflation metric at between 2.6% to 2.8% year-over-year, they said. Should firms opt to absorb tariff expenses, and subsequently post more negative earnings that dent share prices, a Fed cut may also come sooner than anticipated, the analysts said. With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

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Does The President Wield Influence Over The Fed And Future Rate Decisions? - DayTrading.com

With Trump eyeing more control over rate cuts, this is a red flag for markets.🚩

But how much control over the Fed does he really have?

Find out here.👉
www.daytrading.com/opinion/does...

Not financial advice. Informational content only.

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BofA warns low unemployment could mean fewer Fed rate cuts Investing.com - Bank of America analysts suggest that the recent drop in the U.S. unemployment rate could lead to fewer Federal Reserve interest rate cuts than markets currently expect. The unemployment rate (U3) fell to 4.1% last week, coming in below all estimates in the Bloomberg survey and below all Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) estimates for the end of 2025. According to Bank of America, this 4.1% unemployment rate was driven by increased hiring and a smaller labor force, creating labor market conditions that diverge significantly from current market expectations for monetary policy. The bank’s analysis indicates that if unemployment remains at 4.1%, standard Taylor rule calculations suggest "a very different Fed outcome versus market pricing," as shown in their research. While Bank of America does not anticipate the Federal Reserve will raise rates by the end of 2025, they believe the strong labor market combined with persistent inflation implies no interest rate cuts for the remainder of this year. This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes 6 winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. Which stock will be the next to soar?

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Summertime data to pave way for Fed rate cuts, or further conflict with Trump By Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir WASHINGTON (Reuters) -An unexpected pickup in underlying inflation last month nudged price pressures further from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, putting this summer’s data in the spotlight for whether the central bank can resume cutting interest rates and ease ongoing tension with President Donald Trump. Friday’s Commerce Department data painted a potentially worrisome picture for Fed policymakers. Personal spending and income both dropped in May, a possible sign of weakening economic growth, while core inflation increased at a 2.7% annual rate, faster than in April and higher than anticipated. Overall inflation, used to set the Fed’s inflation target, grew more modestly at 2.3%, but still moved away from target, and April’s rate was revised higher. Investors initially keyed on the spending weakness, boosting bets the Fed would cut rates by 75 basis points this year, faster than Fed policymakers project. With households pulling back after a surge of preemptive buying to avoid Trump’s import tariffs, "I think the real worry here is personal income and spending moving lower," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. "All signs point to a weakening economy." The report, though, provided little clarity for Fed policymakers worried inflation pressures may build in coming months in response to Trump’s import taxes, not all of which are fully set. "The report is a wash for the FOMC and won’t alter its wait-and-see stance," wrote Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "The slightly warmer core price increase doesn’t settle the debate about how much tariffs will impact inflation." Ahead of their September meeting, Fed officials will receive reports on consumer prices for June, July and August that Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week said should show whether tariffs are flowing through to consumer prices, as many economists anticipate, or whether those concerns prove overblown. In addition, jobs reports for those three months will show whether the labor market remains solid, or whether slowing job growth and rising joblessness offer a different reason to consider cutting rates. Referring to the Fed’s current outlook that inflation is about to rise due to tariffs, Powell in a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday said "we should start to see this over the summer, in the June number and the July number...If we don’t we are perfectly open to the idea that the pass-through (to consumers) will be less than we think...That will matter for policy." It could also figure into Trump’s approach to Powell’s final months as Fed chair, with his term ending in May 2026. The Fed’s benchmark rate has remained between 4.25% and 4.50% since December. Trump has said repeatedly it should be much lower and is angered by Powell’s approach. Trump and his aides have mused since last year about naming a successor earlier than usual, hoping the nominee could exert pressure on Powell through public comments that try to steer other policymakers or financial markets toward different outcomes. It is an untested strategy, and not without risks. "Would I put any weight on a shadow Fed rates strategy that deviates from what Powell has articulated? Not really," said Ed Al-Hussainy, senior interest rate and currency analyst for Columbia Threadneedle. The "big caveat," he said, is that "market psychology could shift meaningfully in some unpredictable way," and not necessarily in ways beneficial to the economy or Trump. "The reward strikes me as very small, and the risk very large," said Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. "To anoint a shadow chair who spends months and months outside the Fed seems like a bad idea for the president. Odds are it would push up longer rates, not down," if markets began pricing in the implications of a less independent Fed on expected U.S. inflation. The clock is also ticking on the idea, with just seven Fed meetings until Powell’s term expires. Trump does have an opportunity to name a Fed governor in February, when the term of Adriana Kugler expires, but that would potentially add a dissenting voice only a couple of months before Powell’s term as chair ends. Among those thought to be on Trump’s short list for chair, the only one currently at the Fed is Governor Christopher Waller, a Trump appointee who is already influential in the policy debate. Since the time of four-term Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, presidents generally have nominated a new Fed leader in October or November just before the existing chair’s term expires, with Senate confirmation following and the new leader assuming office in February. President Barack Obama renominated Ben Bernanke as chair early, in August 2009, while Powell’s second term started late, in May 2022, after controversy over other Fed nominees delayed Senate confirmation. By this year’s September meeting, the conversation is likely to have changed, with the Fed either proven correct in anticipating higher inflation, or coalescing around rate cuts as Trump has wanted. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Friday before the data was released that with little impact from tariffs on inflation so far he is ready to cut in September "barring some surprising development before then." If inflation shows up later, he said, "we could hold the policy rate at the new level until we gained greater confidence that inflation was headed back to our target." With FED making headlines, savvy investors are asking: Is it truly valued fairly? In a market full of overpriced darlings, identifying true value can be challenging. InvestingPro's advanced AI algorithms have analyzed FED alongside thousands of other stocks to uncover hidden gems. These undervalued stocks, potentially including FED, could offer substantial returns as the market corrects. In 2024 alone, our AI identified several undervalued stocks that later surged by 30 or more. Is FED poised for similar growth? Don't miss the opportunity to find out.

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Hopes for Fed rate cuts keep US Treasury yield views low ahead of supply deluge: Reuters poll BENGALURU (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury yields are set to decline further according to bond strategists who are clinging to expectations the Federal Reserve resumes cutting interest rates after pausing for more than half a year even as dealers are set to underwrite a deluge of new supply. A slight majority now expect another sell-off in longer-dated bonds, the maturities most at risk, by the end of this month. Concerns that President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill will add trillions of dollars to an already-staggering $36.2 trillion debt pile by 2034, along with tariff brinkmanship already have many holders of U.S. assets scrambling for the exit. The rising "term premium" – what investors demand as compensation for holding longer-dated debt – leaves the market more vulnerable, particularly among foreign investors, ahead of upcoming Treasury bond auctions. "The amount of debt we need to issue keeps rising and there doesn’t appear to be anyone in Washington on either side that really has a plan to bring down deficits and address our fiscal situation," said Collin Martin, fixed income strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research. "That’ll weigh on the long end of the curve where we need to see yields rise a bit to attract that marginal buyer." Global sovereign bond yields have mostly risen in tandem over the past two months. A rapid sell-off in benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasuries in April pushed the yield up around 60 basis points. That yield, which rises when prices fall, has since steadied, oscillating around 4.50%. Median forecasts from nearly 50 bond strategists in a June 6-11 Reuters survey, most from dealers and sell-side firms, predicted the 10-year yield would decline a modest 13 bps to 4.35% in three months and to 4.29% in six from its current 4.48%. Despite predicting a decline, more than half upgraded their forecasts from a May survey with many flagging the risk of yields moving higher. "The 10-year will probably trade range-bound for a while between 4-4.50% and maybe even rise a little bit further, particularly given deficit concerns. The yield curve should continue to steepen as short-term yields drift gradually lower as the Fed cuts rates one or two more times by year-end," Schwab’s Martin added. The more interest rate-sensitive 2-year yield was forecast to decline a slightly steeper 17 bps to 3.85% in three months and to 3.73% by end-November, the survey showed. Most economists polled by Reuters predict two or fewer rate cuts this year while rate futures are currently pricing two. An ongoing auction for three-year Treasury notes has been met with somewhat tepid demand though markets will be paying closer attention to sales of longer-dated 10- and 30-year bonds this week. "Given recent market behavior and the pressure we’ve seen on yields, it seems the long end of the yield curve is most susceptible to a supply-demand imbalance leading to higher rates," said Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management. "There has been some disruption at the long end of the curve and the 30-year Treasury bond supply is the biggest question mark for the week in light of all the supply that is hitting. But that isn’t to say threes and 10s are going to be necessarily easy either." A Reuters survey of foreign exchange strategists conducted last week showed a near-90% majority expecting a decline in demand for dollar-denominated assets this year with Europe widely slated to be the biggest beneficiary. "On the bond side European investors who are looking at the U.S. market would normally hedge currency risk, but that’s become very expensive. So on a hedged basis, Treasuries are just not very attractive to European investors anymore," said Chris Iggo, CIO of AXA IM Core, AXA Investment Managers. "There’s been a lot of talk about defence spending and infrastructure but you know ’Show me the money!’ - we haven’t really seen the opportunity set increased massively just yet." With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

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