Hong Kong Dollar Bounces Back on Stock Inflows, Hibor Surge - Bloomberg.com Hong Kong Dollar Bounces Back on Stock Inflows, Hibor Surge  Bloomberg.com

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BofA forecasts HIBOR to stay low, unlikely to return to 4% Investing.com -- Bank of America (BofA) has expressed the view that the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) is unlikely to revert back to 4%, despite questions from clients. This follows the recent drop in 1-month HIBOR from 4% to 0.58%. The bank has based its opinion on the workings of the Linked Exchange Rate System (LERS). According to BofA, the front-end HIBOR will only match the US Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) if the market is inclined to execute the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) carry trade and reduce the aggregate balance’s outstanding size. BofA highlighted that the current market situation differs significantly from previous weak-side convertibility undertaking (CU) cycles. During these periods, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) would sell US dollars to maintain the 7.85-level. However, the current US dollar environment is bearish, and the market is factoring in Federal Reserve cuts. Furthermore, inflows into the HKD remain robust due to the positive momentum in Chinese equities. BofA believes these factors will result in HIBOR and the HKD carry trade behaving differently than in previous weak-side CU cycles. Given the global interest in the USD carry trade is weak, BofA suggests that the current market interest to buy USDHKD at 7.85, which triggers USD selling by the HKMA, will be relatively limited compared to previous cycles when the HIBOR-SOFR gap was wide. This reasoning has led BofA to project that HIBOR will likely maintain a lower level for a longer period. This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Hong Kong: What caused a HIBOR drop? Investing.com -- Investors recently witnessed a significant decline in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR), with analysts at Bank of America (BofA) attributing the sharp fall to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s (HKMA) unprecedented intervention on May 7. This led to the largest single-day jump in Aggregate Balance, which is a key factor in the drop of HIBOR. The HKMA’s intervention was in response to a lack of interest in carry trades and the unprecedented appreciation of the Taiwan Dollar (TWD) against the US Dollar (USD) in early May. This combination of factors reduced buying interest in the USDHKD currency pair, prompting the HKMA to purchase USD in large quantities at a rate of 7.75, while selling HKD. Despite the wide interest rate differentials between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and HIBOR, there has not been sufficient carry trade activity to push the USDHKD to the weak side of 7.85. If overnight HIBOR continues to remain at its current level, analysts expect the HIBOR curve to continue flattening. This trend could affect the longer end of the HIBOR curve over time and potentially have a more material impact on the real economy. In terms of the residential property market, BofA analysts predict only limited support as a result of the lower HIBOR. While a sustained lower HIBOR may bolster homebuying sentiment and drive investment demand, the elevated supply in the housing market is likely to prevent any significant rebound in property prices. The lower HIBOR is expected to impact net interest income for banks negatively, but financial institutions are anticipated to find ways to mitigate this effect. Possible strategies include balance sheet adjustments, higher loan growth, and tapping into opportunities in the wealth management business. Moreover, the majority of service sectors are likely to benefit from a sustained lower HIBOR, according to BofA’s financial analysts. Finally, BofA’s outlook on economic growth remains cautious. They believe that global trade tensions are the primary driver of this year’s growth outlook, rather than the lower interest rates. BofA had previously downgraded Hong Kong’s GDP growth forecast for 2025/26 to 1.3%/1.7%, assuming the US maintains 100% tariff rates on China (and Hong Kong) throughout FY25. However, should a US-China trade deal materialize, BofA acknowledges there could be upside risks to their growth forecast. This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. Which stock should you buy in your very next trade? AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes 6 winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. Which stock will be the next to soar?

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HIBOR供樓又平咗? | 閒聊 港元匯率與香港銀行同業拆息（HIBOR）之間的互動關係，本質上反映聯繫匯率制度下的貨幣機制運作。當港元匯率持續走強，觸及強方兌換保證（7.75港元兌1美元）時，金管局會被動向市場投放港元以維持匯率穩定，此舉將直接增加銀行體系流動性，進而壓低HIBOR水平。

HIBOR供樓又平咗?

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港元匯率與香港銀行同業拆息（HIBOR）之間的互動關係，本質上反映聯繫匯率制度下的貨幣機制運作。當港元匯率持續走強，觸及強方兌換保證（7.75港元兌1美元）時，金管局會被動向市場投放港元以維持匯率穩定，此舉將直接增加銀行體系流動性，進而壓低HIBOR水平。

#閒聊, #HeaTalk, #HIBOR, #港元匯率, #經濟, #美元, #美國, #通脹, #金管局, #香港, #香港銀行同業拆息

香港銀行同業拆息（HIBOR）供樓的利弊 | 閒聊 市場上主流的按揭利率類型包括香港銀行同業拆息（HIBOR）按揭和最優惠利率（P按）按揭。

香港銀行同業拆息（HIBOR）供樓的利弊

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市場上主流的按揭利率類型包括香港銀行同業拆息（HIBOR）按揭和最優惠利率（P按）按揭。

#閒聊, #HeaTalk, #HIBOR, #同業拆息, #最優惠利率, #經濟, #美國, #聯儲局, #香港

随着资金流入香港市场，海外资本对离岸人民币需求持续升温，缓解了香港流动性紧张局面。#离岸人民币 香港银行间同业拆借利率(CNH HIBOR)继续下行，其中一年期 #HIBOR 跌至2.23%，创2024年9月9日以来新低。
来源：#边际Lab x #FinGraph财经图集