Dow falls 400 points after hot inflation reading, Fed decision looms: Live updates The three major averages posted back-to-back gains on Tuesday, even as oil prices ended the session higher. Traders are now awaiting the Fed's policy decision.

“The hotter than expected number is specific to tariffs. This is structural inflation, not temporary …

Add in the hotter energy prices we’ve seen since the Iran War began, which have yet to show in these reports … rapidly rising prices will clearly flow down to the consumer level.”
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Food: Grocery prices jumped 0.7% in December 2025, the fastest one-month gain since 2022, driven by higher costs for meats, dairy, and coffee.

Shelter: Housing costs increased 0.4% in December and remain 3.2% higher than a year ago.

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🚨 BREAKING:

INFLATION REPORT COULD SHAKE CRYPTO MARKETS FRIDAY!

SOFTER DATA MIGHT SLASH TREASURY YIELDS, IGNITING BTC BREAKOUT ABOVE $94K!

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FED RATE CUTS STILL ON THE TABLE—THIS IS MAKE OR BREAK!

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Cooler-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data
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What are the main events for today? In the European session, the main highlight is going to be the Eurozone Flash CPI report. The headline number Y/Y is expected at 2.0% vs. 2.0% prior, while the Core measure is seen at 2.2% vs. 2.3% prior. The ECB is highly likely to have already ended the rate cut cycle and the next move could even be a rate hike as ECB's Schnabel mentioned today. The market is pricing just 6 bps of easing by year-end and 15 bps by the end of 2026. So, we will need significant reasons to price in more rate cuts. Today's inflation report might not influence expectations much unless we get notable deviations. In the American session, the focus will switch to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The latest S&P Global US PMIs were very hot and the commentary even mentioned that the data is more in line with rate hikes than rate cuts. Economic activity continues to pick up and inflationary pressures intensify. The ISM is expected at 49.0 vs 48.0 prior. The main event this week is of course the NFP report but the sentiment and positioning into Friday's release will likely be shaped by the ISM and ADP data, so that's something to be aware of. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

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Hot Inflation Report Leaves U.S. Stocks Mixed - The Wall Street Journal Hot Inflation Report Leaves U.S. Stocks Mixed  The Wall Street Journal

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PPI Numbers Just Dropped

CRASH Incoming or Massive BOOM Ahead?

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United and Delta Are S&P 500’s Top Stocks Today. Thank the Inflation Report. - MSN United and Delta Are S&P 500’s Top Stocks Today. Thank the Inflation Report.  MSN

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The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7 percent from a year ago, matching the pace of the previous month. But after stripping out volatile food and energy prices, “core” inflation jumped 3.1 percent.

Stock futures little changed ahead of July inflation report: Live updates - CNBC Stock futures little changed ahead of July inflation report: Live updates  CNBC

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Dollar steady before inflation report, US-China tariff deadline By Gregor Stuart Hunter SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar stabilised on Monday after last week’s losses, as markets await Tuesday’s key U.S. CPI report for July and focus on developments in trade talks between Washington and Beijing ahead of a deadline to avoid the imposition of higher tariffs. The dollar index was flat at 98.25 after a 0.4% decline last week. Against the yen, the dollar was unchanged at 147.685 yen, with Japanese markets closed for the Mountain Day holiday. Trade talks were in focus as Trump’s August 12 deadline for a deal between the U.S. and China loomed, particularly around chip policy. "The market has fully priced in the idea that we’re going to get an extension," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd in Melbourne, adding that another 90-day truce was most likely. With the U.S. and China seeking to close a deal that would avoid imposing triple-digit tariffs on each other’s goods, the Financial Times reported on Sunday that chip manufacturers Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) agreed to allocate 15% of their revenues from sales in China to the U.S. government under an arrangement to obtain export licences for the semiconductors. The report follows a warning that Nvidia’s H20 chips pose security concerns for China, a social media account affiliated with the country’s state media said on Sunday. "I don’t know if that’s going to be a good thing or a bad thing, but if it puts closure on the matter it’s not a bad outcome," Weston said. "If this is Trump says 15% and we’ll call it a day, that may not be too bad." The offshore yuan fluctuated between gains and losses after data on the weekend showed China’s producer prices fell more than expected in July, while consumer prices were unchanged. The Australian dollar fetched $0.6515, down 0.2% in early trade ahead of a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday, where the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.60% after inflation for the second quarter missed expectations and the jobless rate hit a 3-1/2-year high. The kiwi last traded at $0.59455, down 0.13%, while the British pound traded at $1.34405, down 0.1% so far on the day. In crypto markets, bitcoin rose 0.7% to $119,154, not far from its previous record, while ether was up 1.1% at $4,267, after reaching its highest since December 2021 on Sunday. Elsewhere, personnel moves at key U.S. monetary policy institutions were also in focus. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the new Federal Reserve chair should be someone "who can examine the whole organisation" as the Fed’s mission has included so many things outside of monetary policy and has put its independence at risk, Japan’s Nikkei newspaper reported. The Trump administration was also interviewing candidates to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics including E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing a senior administration official.

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UK inflation on the agenda today The expectation is that we are not likely to see that happen though. While food prices do present considerable uncertainty coming into the June report, the main focus stays on services inflation for the most part. And for that, it is expected to ease further from 4.7% to 4.5% year-on-year. So, that should reaffirm BOE rate cut expectations even if the headline and core figures should come in more or less the same as in May. Here are the overall estimates: * Headline monthly inflation: 0.2% (prior 0.2%) * Headline annual inflation: 3.4% (prior 3.4%) * Core monthly inflation: 0.2% (prior 0.2%) * Core annual inflation: 3.5% (prior 3.5%) Just be wary that there's also some debate on the index date that the ONS will be taking in calculating consumer prices for this month. The expected is cutoff is 10 June but if they do take 17 June, there could be upside risks to prices - particularly on the services side. That might stem from the likes of higher travel and accommodation prices in general ahead of the summer holidays. As for the drop off in services prices as noted above, it is also in part due to Taylor Swift's concerts in the UK in June last year. So, there is also some base effect tied to that. Either way, the main figures are the thing to watch out for first before drilling down to services inflation and then food price inflation - which has been edging a little higher as of late. If all of that falls in line, it will reaffirm a BOE rate cut for August. Otherwise, things will be tricky and will require more supportive data like the one we might get from the labour market tomorrow. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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USA inflation slows to 4.5% in 2025, easing pressure on consumers but long-term challenges remain in balancing growth & price stability. #InflationReport #EconomyNews learn how i got $1256 grant for my business: tinyurl.com/financialhel...

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Japan’s food inflation to intensify in July, survey shows TOKYO (Reuters) -Japanese households will get no respite from rising living costs with a five-fold increase expected in the number of food items set to experience price rises in July, a private think tank survey showed on Monday. The finding highlights mounting inflationary pressure in Japan’s once deflation-prone economy, which some policymakers view as an early sign of widespread, sustained price rises that may require raising interest rates further. A survey conducted on 195 major food makers showed they expect to hike prices for 2,105 items in July - up fivefold from year-before levels - by an average 15%, Teikoku Databank said. Aside from rising raw material prices and utility bills, companies cited increasing transportation and labour costs as reasons for the price hikes, the report released by Teikoku Databank showed. "The momentum for food and beverage price hikes is stronger in 2025 than that of the previous year," the report said. Prices were set to rise for a range of items including those made of rice, as well as chocolate, chewing gum, potato chips and pasta sauce. Among companies that announced plans to hike prices from July 1, Ajinomoto AGF plans to raise prices for its coffee items by about 25-55%, and Meiji will increase prices for cheese and milk by up to 11%. A renewed rise in crude oil prices due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East could spark a revival of the price hike rush Japan experienced in 2022, when prices increased for a total of 25,768 food and beverage items, Teikoku Databank said. After raising its short-term policy rate to 0.5% in January, the BOJ has kept borrowing costs steady despite core consumer inflation hitting a more than two-year high of 3.7% in May, exceeding its 2% target for well over three years. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the need to move cautiously in raising rates until inflation is driven more by solid consumption and higher wages, rather than rising raw material costs. But the central bank’s argument that rising food and fuel costs are likely temporary, and not a justification for raising rates, is being tested by persistent rises in the cost of living that may affect public perceptions of future price moves, analysts say. The BOJ’s quarterly "tankan" survey on companies, due on Tuesday, will highlight the challenge it faces in balancing mounting inflationary pressure, and risks to Japan’s fragile economy from steep U.S. tariffs. The focus would be on whether companies will retain their solid capital expenditure plans despite uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. Big firms surveyed in the tankan are expected to increase capital expenditure by 10% in fiscal 2025 from year before levels, the Reuters poll showed. Don't miss out on the next big opportunity! Stay ahead of the curve with ProPicks – 6 model portfolios fueled by AI stock picks with a stellar performance this year.. In 2024 alone, ProPicks' AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech Stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies. So if 2802 is on your watchlist, it could be very wise to know whether or not it made the ProPicks lists.

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Wall Street Slips as Boeing Stumbles and Oracle Soars Wall Street Slips as Boeing Dives, Oracle Soars, and Inflation Cools June 12, 2025 – NEW YORK — U.S. markets

Boeing Stock Plunges After Dreamliner Crash as Wall Street Slips

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US Stock Market LIVE Updates: Stocks tick higher after tame May inflation report - CNBC TV18 US Stock Market LIVE Updates: Stocks tick higher after tame May inflation report  CNBC TV18

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I've had to accept that whenever Trump's on the run you can be sure it will turn around the next week. It doesn't mean he can't be beaten (2020) but it does mean that you can't ever relax. It's a roller coaster. You just have to hope he's at a low point at the right time.

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Lower Thai inflation reflects energy and policy measures, ministry says BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand’s lower-than-expected March inflation rate was mainly due to lower energy prices and government policies to alleviate cost of living pressures, the commerce ministry said on Monday, and did not reflect a slowdown in economic activity. It added that slower global growth could weigh on prices. A global economic slowdown brought on by U.S. tariffs would impact prices, Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, head of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office said, noting that foreign exporters impacted by the tariffs may also ship cheaper goods to Thailand. Thai March inflation of 0.84% came in below forecast and lower than the central bank’s target range of 1% to 3%. In the first quarter as a whole, inflation was at 1.08%, the ministry said, with second-quarter inflation of 0.15%. The central bank said earlier it would ensure inflation was not too low or too high.

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Dow Jones Futures Fall With Fed's Inflation Report Due; CoreWeave IPO Is Latest Bad Sign For AI Stocks - Investor's Business Daily Dow Jones Futures Fall With Fed's Inflation Report Due; CoreWeave IPO Is Latest Bad Sign For AI Stocks  Investor's Business Daily

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Mexico headline inflation likely down in first half of March: Reuters poll MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico’s annual inflation likely slowed in the first half of March, according to a Reuters poll, supporting bets that the central bank will lower its benchmark interest rate again next week by half a percentage point. The median estimate from 10 participants forecast an annual rate of 3.76% for the general consumer price index in the first two weeks of the month, below the rate of 3.81% registered in the second half of February. Core inflation, which strips out especially volatile food and energy prices, is estimated to decrease to 3.56%, its lowest level since May 2020. "Given that inflation has stayed within the Bank of Mexico’s target range over the last five fortnights, we continue to expect a 50 basis point (bp) cut at the March 27 meeting," the financial group Actinver said in an analysis note. Poll participants expect prices to have risen by 0.22% compared to the prior two-week period, while the core index is expected to increase by 0.24%. The official data will be released on Monday. The central bank, which has an inflation target range of 3%, plus or minus one percentage point, accelerated its pace of cuts last month, lowering its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 9.5%. The bank has stated that it will consider similar adjustments in the future if inflation keeps cooling and allows for it. Adding pressure on the monetary authority, the economy contracted by 0.6% at the end of 2024 and analysts do not rule out a new setback in the current first quarter due to looming trade tensions with the United States.

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