Caveat…machine learning/AI in weather prediction are useful but have bias issues and require correction, they do represent a new era of helpful tools for potential pattern recognition for weather hazards. weather.ou.edu #OSSTahoe 1/13/2026
Hill: Forecast verification for high impact rain events days in advance are improving with the machine learning / AI assist, including for California flooding events and severe weather…”signal” pattern heads up 6-8 days in advance #OSSTahoe 1/13/2026
Dr Aaron Hill @ousom leads the CHAOS research group, which specializes in Convection and weather Hazards with Artificial intelligence, Observations, and Simulations, showcasing benefits of machine learning/AI on weather hazards forecasting #OSSTahoe 1/13/2026
Weather team assembled w/ @jimcantore.bsky.social @weatherkatie.bsky.social morning temps in the 20s outbound to @Sierra_at_Tahoe #OSSTahoe 1/13/2026
An incredible day at #Heavenly #SkiCalifornia #OSSTahoe #SkiHeavenly #TahoeIsHeavenly #Heavenly70! #VisitLakeTahoe
Between two states of mind… from the @skiheavenly Observation Deck platform #CAwx #NVwx 1/12/2026 #OSSTahoe
Detecting wildfire arson w/ AI: Meteorologist Ben Cathey talks using AI/machine learning to improve wildfire arson detection and probability - for more rapid detection / response and ID’ing previously unknown causes of wildfires with potential arson connections at #OSSTahoe
The @OpenSnow’s Bryan Allegretto & Andrew Brady showing how AI-boosted mountain weather forecasts are improving speed and accuracy in the complex Sierra microclimates. #OSSTahoe 1/12/2026
Recently at Operation Sierra Storm #OSSTahoe I interviewed Craig Fugate, former head of FEMA. He says that climate change's impact on the insurance industry is the "canary in the coalmine" and the insurance model is buckling, so to speak. Here's more in today's Berardelli Bonus…
Tahoe mood 😎 ⛄️for now 🙌🏻
Next two days maybe the last dry days for awhile … looks more active into February with some high snow level events early on then potential for better accumulations moving forward. #CAwx #OSSTahoe 1/28/2025
On the #DixieFire, radar shows bookend vortices develop as fire ramps up intensity/spread, including an area w/ “EF-1” estimated strength (nearly 100 mph) but with fire. This includes the “hook echoes” on radar #OSSTahoe 1/28/2025 #CAwx
And… fire vortices, counter rotating pairs w/ flow splitting around the fire aka “splitting plumes” #OSSTahoe 1/28/2025
Evolution of the #CampFire ember fallout and long range spotting & fire spread in less than one hour #OSSTahoe #CAwx 1/28/2025
Long range spotting behavior occurred / near peak plume development & fire intensity (Dixie Fire shown) enabling spot fires 15-20km away from column plume updraft, about 18 minutes later #CAwx #OSSTahoe
What the radar sees: “pyrometeors” not smoke, mainly ash and embers lofted #OSSTahoe #CAwx 1/28/2025
University of Nevada Reno atmospheric sciences professor @neillareau.bsky.social discussing the use of weather radar to detect pyrocumulus clouds and long-range spotting.
During extreme fire behavior embers can spark new fires miles or tens of miles downwind. #OSSTahoe
Wildland fire uses for weather radar: track plume dynamics, fire generated vortices, pyro Cb, and long range spotting - vertical wind speeds 70 mph+ can loft large embers far @nplareau #OSSTahoe 1/28/2025
PG&E meteorologist Scott Strenfel discussing public safety power shutoffs and enhanced powerline public safety. Enhanced modeling and powerline deenergization has improved greatly in the past few years, but still a long way to go. #OSSTahoe
PG&E has added 1,582 weather stations to boost weather model accuracy including 1,400 machine learning (AI) models deployed. Strenfel - fuel conditions are most impactful in a warming climate - the need for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity #OSSTahoe 1/28/2025
PG&E’s Senior Director of Meteorology Operations and Fire Science Scott Strenfel speaking at #OSSTahoe moving the utility into an era of public safety power shutoffs since the 2017 North Bay fires and more targeted shutoffs, HD cams/AI, fire threat index modeling and down conductor detection.
Got 8” of snow the other night atop Heavenly, but other parts of Tahoe/Sierra weren’t so lucky. The dry streak at @cssl.bsky.social reached 25 days, the third-longest winter dry spell in the past 34 years.
CA-wide snowpack is down to 65% of normal after being at 108% three weeks ago.
#OSSTahoe
Also more methane released from natural sources (cattle) than the oil and gas industry … re-purposing of methane release can lead to additional energy sources in the future (PG&E working a similar project in Solano County) #OSSTahoe 1/27/2025
@gcarbonproject Rob Jackson at #OSSTahoe talking about Methane’s share of Climate heating. Much of excess methane is from Ag (cow burps) and biomass, but the portion that comes from fossil gas is not from “burning” it’s from leaks in the extraction/ supply chain. Rob’s team… 1/
“We’ve done more to clean the air outside but have done little to improve the air quality inside our homes” re: methane release related to use of gas stoves. Electric stoves don’t cause the same heating of the air and NOx/benzene emissions - Jackson #OSSTahoe 1/27/2025
Solutions: fixing / upgrading systems for fewer methanr emissions, lowering risk of failure w/ the Cincinnati example here and addressing landfill emissions #OSSTahoe 1/27/2025
