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The US is Responsible for its Decision to Attack Iran - PRIF BLOG There is a growing tendency in American politics to attribute Trump's decision to go to war with Iran to his being misled by Netanyahu. While this may explain his choice, it obscures the structures that enable one person to destabilize global security with minimal domestic or international support. Moreover, narratives emphasizing external influence on Trump misrepresent the U.S.-Israel power balance and exaggerate the influence of pro-Israel organizations on American policy. This allows U.S. leaders to deflect blame for an unpopular war abroad rather than confront the reality that America's massive military—controlled largely by the presidency and a hawkish foreign policy establishment with limited democratic oversight—created the structural conditions for this conflict.

⁉️Did Netanyahu influence Trump's decision to attack Iran? Sidney Michelini argues that this narrative in U.S.-American politics misrepresents the balance of power between the U.S. and Israel, enabling U.S.-American politicians to deflect blame. 💡Read more on #PRIFblog

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Fragile Polls: Political Deadlock and Insurgencies Cloud Elections in the Horn of Africa - PRIF BLOG On 10 April, Djibouti will kick off one of the four elections in the Horn of Africa in 2026—Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan. Conflict trends across the region indicate that these upcoming elections will act as stress multipliers, amplifying existing tensions rather than creating new ones. This has the potential to worsen ongoing insurgencies and unresolved political disputes, and to significantly increase the risk of electoral violence. Drawing on recent peace and conflict research and data from the region, this article provides a comparative assessment to anticipate the risk of election-related instability and violence in this region.

📣 Starting tomorrow, four states in the Horn of Africa will hold elections in 2026. In a new post on #PRIFblog, Jalale Getachew Birru argues that these elections could act as stress multipliers due to existing conflicts in the region: the risk of instability and violence could increase. Learn more ⬇️

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Die Angriffe auf iranische Nuklearanlagen haben das Nuklearprogramm zurückgeworfen, trotzdem ist eine iranische Kernwaffe weiterhin möglich. Statt weiterer Militärschläge muss die internationale Überwachung des Nuklearprogramms wieder etabliert werden. Das durfte ich im #PRIFBlog etwas ausführen 👇

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In Trümmern, aber tatsächlich zerstört? Eine Bestandsaufnahme des iranischen Nuklearprogramms - PRIF BLOG Nach den US-amerikanischen Militärschlägen im vergangenen Sommer gegen den Iran verkündete US-Präsident Trump sämtliche Nuklearanlagen des Landes seien vernichtet worden. Während andere Stimmen wenige...

Wie steht es nach den Angriffen um das iranische Nuklearprogramm? Für das Ziel, eine iranische Atombombe zu verhindern, sind Militärschläge kontraproduktiv, argumentiert @fabianunruh.bsky.social auf #PRIFblog.
blog.prif.org/2026/04/08/i...

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Blinded by the Zeitenwende: Rüstungs(export)politik falsch gemacht - PRIF BLOG Wenn die Bundesregierung ihren Kurs fortsetzt und Rüstungsexporte auch an Staaten jenseits von EU und NATO primär als Instrument von Außen-, Sicherheits- und Wirtschaftspolitik sieht, besteht die Gefa...

Laut @sipri.org baut Deutschland seine Rolle als weltweit bedeutender Waffenexporteur weiter aus.
Simone Wisotzki und Max Mutschler kritisieren auf #PRIFblog: Eine echte Zeitenwende würde auf europäische Integration setzen, statt Waffenexporte auch in problematische Weltregionen zu erleichtern ⬇️

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Instrumentalization, not Termination – What Trump’s Board of Peace actually Tells us about the Decline of Multilateralism - PRIF BLOG This article argues that the Board of Peace reveals a persistent pattern: ad hoc organizations like the BoP must the co-opt funding, legitimacy, and organization capacity of other institutions to succ...

📣 Trump’s “Board of Peace” (BoP) represents another escalation – but does it mean the end of multilateral cooperation in the peace and security domain?
💡Serena Bernstein and Ilai Yaron Levy argue that ad-hoc organizations like the BoP will still depend on established institutions.
Now on #PRIFblog ⬇️

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Blue Nile State: How Gulf Rivalries Are Redrawing Sudan’s War Map - PRIF BLOG Sudan’s Blue Nile state is becoming a strategic node where the country’s civil war intersects with wider regional power competition. Allegations that neighboring Ethiopia has facilitated Rapid Support...

After allegations that Ethiopia has been supporting RSF, the Sudanese Armed Forces, RSF, and allies have mobilized forces in Sudan's Blue Nile state. In a new post on #PRIFblog, Jalale Getachew Birru shows how in Blue Nile the country’s civil war intersects with wider regional power competition.

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Negotiations in the Ukraine War – Europe on the Menu - PRIF BLOG Europe would emerge from the war as the strategic loser. Not because of Putin or Trump's ruthlessness, but because it refused to stand up for its own interests against its opponent and defend them in ...

📣Now also in English: Sascha Hach’s analysis of negotiations in Russia's war against Ukraine. What have the diplomatic efforts of the past four years achieved? And: Which role should Europe play in the negotiations?

💡Lean more on #PRIFblog:

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A Seat at the Table: Germany's Role in the War Between the US, Israel and Iran - PRIF BLOG Since the US and Israel launched their military campaign against Iran, many in Israel have framed the conflict as the "last war". Yet military action alone cannot secure long-term stability. Germany o...

Many in Israel have framed the war with Iran as the “last war”. However, without Palestinian statehood, long-term stability in the Middle East will not be possible, argues Ilai Levy. Germany should use its diplomatic ties to move Israel toward a process of confidence-building. Now on #PRIFblog

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Securitizing Borders and Local Conflict Dynamics – Insights from Benin - PRIF BLOG In past years, the Benin government has significantly increased its military presence in Northern regions and has set up various national initiatives to securitize its borders with Burkina Faso, Niger...

📣 New #PRIFblog: Affected by increasing extremist violence, Benin's government has increased its military presence at its northern borders. Kamal Donko and Simone Schnabel show how this security focus creates new grievances and vulnerabilities among the local populations living in affected areas ⬇️

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Verhandlungen im Ukrainekrieg: Europa auf der Speisekarte - PRIF BLOG Von Beginn an wird im russischen Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine nicht nur gekämpft, sondern auch verhandelt. Europa blieb diplomatisch zurückhaltend. Mit US-Präsident Donald Trump schlüpften die USA ...

🔦 Neues PRIF Spotlight: Seit vier Jahren wird in Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine nicht nur gekämpft, sondern auch verhandelt. Was haben die diplomatischen Bemühungen gebracht? Und: Welche Rolle sollte Europa in den Verhandlungen einnehmen?

💡Zum gesamten Text von @Sascha Hach auf dem #PRIFblog:

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Jenseits der Zapfsäule: Wie der Krieg am Persischen Golf eine Energie- und Rohstoffkrise zugleich ist - PRIF BLOG Der US-amerikanisch-israelische Krieg gegen Iran weitet sich mittlerweile zu einem regionalen Krieg aus und die Schließung der Straße von Hormus könnte die größte Ölangebotskrise seit Generationen bed...

Von Computerchips bis Düngemittel: Weitere Auswirkungen des Iran-Kriegs könnten in Asien wie auch Europa bald spürbar sein. Im #PRIFblog beleuchten @ptrckflmm.bsky.social und @lukaswagner.bsky.social die globalen Verknüpfungen zwischen Petrochemie, Energieströmen und Ernährungssicherheit. ⬇️

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Staging Law & Order: Public Trials and Rebel Legitimacy in Northern Myanmar - PRIF BLOG The idea of publicly staged trials may appear grotesque or outdated to citizens of modern, functioning states. Yet, for non-state armed actors in contested environments, the power of judicial procedur...

When being seen to govern is as important as governing itself: on #PRIFblog, Yaolong Xian and Jan Kubandt analyze rebel groups' practices of staging justice in a fragmented border region, targeting locals – and signaling responsibility to China.
blog.prif.org/2026/03/09/p...

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Hezbollah is Weak, but not yet Defeated - PRIF BLOG Hezbollah has been severely weakened since 2024, having lost its longest-serving Secretary General and numerous founding-generation commanders. Now, faced with escalating war against its main backer I...

Hezbollah has been severely weakened while the war against its main backer, Iran, has worsened its prospects. However, the organization is not yet defeated and still dangerous. Read the analysis by Elisabeta Dinu on #PRIFblog.
blog.prif.org/en/2026/03/0...

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Attacking Iran Isn't Just Illegal, it's Illegitimate and Dangerous - PRIF BLOG European leaders should clearly oppose the American and Israeli attacks on Iran. Yet for the most part they have called for more negotiations and condemned Iran. While European leaders may appear to h...

Why European leaders should oppose the attacks on Iran and affirm the limits on the use of force established by the UN Charter: in the latest #PRIFblog post, Sidney Michelini offers political, strategic, and moral reasons.
blog.prif.org/2026/03/03/a...

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More Gradualism than Shock? Observations on how Syria’s New Islamist Rulers Are Building a State - PRIF BLOG When Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies swept into Damascus in December 2024, many observers feared a replication of the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan. After all, HTS was a group with roots...

📢 New #PRIFblog: Syria's political transition is driven by gradual institution-building rather than revolutionary zeal. As @reginesonja.bsky.social, Ammar Hassan and Samer Massoud argue, this approach’s success will be decisive for the country's stability.
➡️ blog.prif.org/2026/02/26/m...

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The Risks Surrounding IS Detention Facilities Amid Renewed Conflict and Shifting Power Dynamics in Northeastern Syria - PRIF BLOG Amid renewed violence and shifting power dynamics in northeastern Syria, recent mass breakouts from detention facilities holding Islamic State (IS) detainees show that Islamist terrorism thrives where...

📢 New #PRIFblog: Islamist terrorism thrives where governance vacuums emerge. In light of the recent mass escapes from IS detention facilities in northeastern Syria, Masood Al Hakari assesses the risks and security implications for the region and beyond.
➡️ blog.prif.org/2026/02/26/t...

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Wie Deutschland die russische “Schattenflotte” ergreifen und die Internationale Ordnung mitgestalten kann - PRIF BLOG Die jüngste Taktik der “Schattenflotte”, ohne gültige Nationalflagge zu fahren, bietet den europäischen Staaten eine seltene Gelegenheit, im Rahmen des Völkerrechts entschlossen gegen sie vorzugehen. ...

📣 Nun auch auf Deutsch: Seit letztem Jahr fahren Schiffe der „Schattenflotte“ zunehmend ohne gültige Flagge ⛵
Cornell Overfield erklärt im #PRIFblog: Diese Taktik eröffnet europäischen Staaten eine seltene Chance, im Einklang mit dem Völkerrecht entschieden gegen sie vorzugehen. Mehr erfahren ⬇

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How Germany Can Act Against the "Shadow Fleet" and Shape International Order - PRIF BLOG Since the “shadow fleet” adopted the tactic of sailing under false flags, maritime security and law experts have asked why European Sea states lack the will to seize both the opportunity and the state...

📢 New #PRIFblog: Can Germany act against the “shadow fleet”? 🚢
With regard to its latest tactic, Cornell Overfield argues: ships sailing without valid national registration are vulnerable to seizure under international law – but for Germany, this will likely require domestic legal reforms ⬇️

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Frieden trotz Trump? Stand und Zukunft des Russland-Ukraine-Kriegs an seinem vierten Jahrestag - PRIF BLOG Vor fast vier Jahren, am 24. Februar 2022, begann die russische Vollinvasion der Ukraine. Über diesen Zeitraum haben die USA diesen Krieg maßgeblich mitgeprägt. Unter Präsident Biden unterstützten sie...

Zum vierten Jahrestag der russischen Vollinvasion zieht Jonas J. Driedger Bilanz: Wie hat sich die zweite Amtszeit von Trump auf das Kriegsgeschehen ausgewirkt? Und welche Perspektiven gibt es im fünften Jahr für Frieden in der Ukraine? Jetzt auf dem #PRIFblog
blog.prif.org/2026/02/19/f...

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25 Years of Women, Peace and Security: Envisioning A Future by Centering on Hope - PRIF BLOG In this piece, we turn towards hope as an inherently feminist concept and a guide to upholding principles of solidarity, community and care.

📣 What does hope mean in the contemporary world? 🕊️
On #PRIFblog, Diksha Poddar and Madita Standtke-Erdmann argue: It is a powerful, feminist tool and anchor for the irrevocable belief in achieving social justice and security - which can help us to re-imagine the future of the UN's #WPS-Agenda ⬇️

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Energy Affordability Under Pressure: What the EU’s new climate policy mechanism means for the Western Balkans - PRIF BLOG The newly introduced Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) exposes long-standing weaknesses in the Western Balkans Nations' coal-based energy systems.

📣Out now: The EU’s new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will increase the pressure to speed up the green transition in the Western Balkans. However, on #PRIFblog, Finn Irmer argues: this transition might come with socio-economic trade-offs related to the affordability of energy.
💡Learn more:

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The Women We Don’t See: Considering Intersectional and Decolonial Approaches in Ghana’s WPS Agenda - PRIF BLOG A close examination of GHANAP2 reveals how well-meaning policies can unintentionally perpetuate exclusion from implementing the WPS Agenda.

💡 ♀️ Why just talking about “women and girls” is not enough: On #PRIFblog, Grace Dankwa argues that to build a more inclusive and sustainable #WPS framework, Ghana’s next NAP must meaningfully account for the diverse realities shaping women’s security.

➡️ Learn more now: blog.prif.org/2026/02/11/t...

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Pushing Back the Pushback? WPS, Power Politics, and Liberal Retreat - PRIF BLOG Twenty-five years after its adoption, the Women, Peace and Security agenda is operating within a different political landscape. Power politics is returning, militarization is accelerating, and the ant...

Shrinking political will, illiberal backlash, and gender backsliding: 25 years after its adoption, the Women, Peace and Security agenda is operating within a different political landscape. @leoniestamm.bsky.social outlines the changed context and possible avenues forward in the new #PRIFblog.

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What the West Got Wrong About Russian “Hybrid Warfare”: Understanding Russian Unconventional Activities Will Determine Future Strategies and the Resilience of Europe - PRIF BLOG Alongside Russia's full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, non-military operations across Europe have also been on the rise, blending methods of espionage, disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks and ...

New #PRIFblog: Since the full-scale invasion on Ukraine, Russian “hybrid warfare” and how to address it have been central points of debate. In this context, it is important to understand the evolution of Russian interference and the reasoning behind it, argue Sascha Hach and Austin Wright.

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Disarmed but Not Invisible: Former FARC-EP Combatants Shaping Peace Beyond WPS Frameworks - PRIF BLOG In the rural zone of La Montañita, the grassroots initiative ASMUPROPAZ brings together women and men – ex-combatants and victims. Their everyday work reveals a form of peacebuilding that unsettles th...

📣New #PRIFblog: In Colombia, the ASMUPROPAZ brings together ex-combatants and victims to turn aromatic plants into essential oils – and conflict into cooperation.
➡️ Laura Camila Barrios Sabogal on how their work unsettles categories of “victim” and “perpetrator” in the #WPSagenda:

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Reimagining the UN’s Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda: Climate Resilience and Women’s Peacebuilding in Lake Chad - PRIF BLOG As Lake Chad’s waters shrink and droughts intensify, pastoralists and farmers clash over the remaining oases. Amid this crisis, rural women – farmers, water-keepers, and mediators – hold the keys to p...

📣 New #PRIFblog: Rural women are not just victims of environmental crises – they are vital agents of peace and resilience. Lake Chad region shows: integrating climate action into the Women, Peace and Security agenda can recognize and amplify women’s leadership.
blog.prif.org/2026/01/26/r...

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Frieden und Demokratie auf dem Rückzug – was nun? - PRIF BLOG Das neue Jahr beginnt mit düsteren Aussichten. In der Ukraine geht der verbrecherische Zermürbungskrieg Russlands in den vierten Winter. Im Nahen Osten nimmt die Gewalt kein Ende. Im Sudan tobt ein we...

📣Hinterhofpolitik und Großmachtstreben sind zurück.
Doch während Russland - und neuerdings auch die USA - offen danach trachten, die EU zu spalten, macht Bruno Schoch Mut:

Der Siegeszug von Autokraten und Aggressoren ist kein Naturgesetz. Jetzt schlägt die Stunde Europas.

💡Im #PRIFblog lesen ⬇️

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Between Window Dressing and Political Perspective: Regime Change in the Controversy over the US Intervention in Venezuela - PRIF BLOG The argument that the US military strike could lead to a democratic transition in Venezuela does little to lend legitimacy to the US intervention, which violates international law. Nevertheless, many ...

📣 New #PRIFblog - Now also in English: While regime change in Venezuela seems to have played a marginal role for Trump so far, members of the Venezuelan diaspora are hoping for democracy.

➡️ Jonas Wolff and @solveigrichter.bsky.social
on how Europe can support democratic change in Venezuela:

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💡Jetzt lesen: Wie ordnen Friedens- und Konfliktforscher*innen die US-Außenpolitik und ihre Folgen ein?

➡️ Zum #PRIFblog: www.prif.org

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