Now officially named Tropical Storm #Sara
#TD19 has strengthened & is now officially Tropical Storm Sara. Life-threatening flash flooding & mudslides are expected in #Honduras through weekend. Warnings: Tropical storm conditions along parts of northern Honduras coast. #TSSara
#TD19 strengthens into Tropical Storm #Sara off the coast of Honduras over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
🔴While the winds may not be too strong, the associated rainfall will lead to flooding, land , & mudslides.
🔴The cone still shows entrance in the Gulf by next week.
Tropical Storm #Sara has now formed from #TD19, and the eastern Gulf needs to keep an eye on this system for mid-week next week. #Tropics
From here, the Gulf high moves east and steers #TD19 over the Yucatan Peninsula, drying the storm out. Some ensembles show an attempt to reorganize moisture and strengthen. There is an outside shot at a helpful interaction with a jet streak. But mainly shear increases throughout and TD19 dissipates.
Over the next day, the storm was to stop and the trough off the east coast was going to slide #TD19 east. But the trough is now forecast to be less amplified and the TD is further south. The distance between the TD and 5820m height contour at 500mb is ~150nmi further apart now -> No eastward slide.
Basically none of the modeling to date indicated what is now #TD19 to be very organized, and indeed it isn't this afternoon. But the earliest models didn't know whether it would be closer to Honduras or the Cayman Islands by now. Well the answer is definitively on the south side of those options. 🧵
Look at #TD19… could be #Sara soon!
Will meander over the Yucatán by Tuesday.
Still too early for to know with certainty what it will look like once in the Gulf.
Could be anything from a remnant low to organized storm. Something to watch but expect elevated rain chance Wed/Thu across #Florida.
A late-season African easterly wave intensified to become #TD19. This was located near Cabo Verde on November 1 and made a slow trek across the deep tropics. It's now centered off the eastern tip of Honduras and is close to becoming the 18th named storm, #Sara.
bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2024/11/td-1...
The new forecast for Tropical Depression 19 #TD19 indicates that the system will slow down significantly as it moves along the coast of Honduras. This is really bad, as it could cause extreme rainfall totals of over 30 in ( 750 mm) in some regions. Let's hope for the best.
The tropical depression which could be named #Sara will produce intense rain leading to widespread flooding in Central America
#wxsky #wxBlueSky #hurricaneseason #TD19 #HondurasWx
#TD19 Cone w models.
🔴The system is forecast to exit Yucatan by Monday. As you can see, the cone takes all the models into account.
🔴After that, it all depends how healthy it is and how fast an approaching front moves into the Gulf. That will ultimately determine where the system will go.
TROPICS UPDATE: Depression #TD19 soon to be #Sara to stall this weekend. Forecast trends are good for Florida due to a track over land in Central America, but if Sara stays over the water longer, it could still be strong near Florida. Watch for updates over the weekend. More at HurricaneIntel.com
Tropical Depression Nineteen is now present in the Caribbean. It seems more likely now that this system will suffer from land interaction as it hugs the coast of Honduras over the next few days. Significant rainfall event for Honduras still forecast. #TD19
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