TSX futures edge higher amid Trump tariff uncertainty Investing.com - Futures linked to Canada’s main stock exchange pointed higher on Monday, as investors parsed through President Donald Trump’s comments on U.S. trade policy. By 06:23 ET (10:23 GMT), the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract had risen by 3 points, or 0.2%. Despite relatively lower volumes due to the July 4 holiday in the U.S., the S&P/TX composite index edged up by 1.9 points, or 0.01% on Friday, ending the session at a new record high of 27,036.16. The index jumped by nearly 1.3% for the week, pushing its total advance for the year up to 9.3%. Analysts suggested that the average has been bolstered by strength in banking stocks, which account for much of its weighting, as well as gains in materials stocks, especially gold-exposed names. Meanwhile, sentiment was supported by the signing of Trump’s signature fiscal bill into law, which removed a key point of uncertainty for markets. A drop in 10-year Canadian bond yields following data showing an uptick in Toronto-area home sales also boosted the index. Uncertainty surrounds Trump tariff agenda Wall Street is set to start the new week on a cautious note ahead of the expiration to a pause to Trump’s heightened reciprocal tariffs on July 9, with ongoing trade talks having only yielded preliminary deals with the United Kingdom (TADAWUL:4280) and Vietnam, as well as a truce with China. Trump has said that the White House will shortly begin to send out letters to U.S trading partners outlining their new tariff rates, although some confusion has surrounded when the levies would come into effect, with media reports suggesting that the rates may not kick in until August 1. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters on Sunday that Trump will be setting the rates and potential deals now, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had earlier said the tariffs will be imposed as outlined in April if no trade deals were reached by August 1. This left markets unclear over just how high Trump’s tariffs will be, given that the president had in early-April announced tariffs going as high as 50% on major economies. He also suggested over the weekend that the rates could reach 60% or 70%. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump also said that countries aligned with the BRICS bloc will face an extra levy over allegedly anti-American practices. U.S. stock index futures broadly fell against this backdrop. At 06:33 ET, Dow Jones Futures were mostly unchanged, while S&P 500 Futures dropped 16 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures slipped 83 points, or 0.4%. Crude bounces from OPEC+-inspired losses Crude prices rose, overturning earlier losses after OPEC+ announced plans to increase output more than expected in August. At 06:35 ET, Brent futures climbed 0.7% to $68.80 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1.0% to $67.13 a barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, announced on Saturday that it will increase oil output by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August. The hike is larger than the 411,000 bpd increases already implemented for May, June, and July. The group also warned that it will consider another 548,000 bpd hike in September at the next meeting on August 3. It marks a continued rollback of the voluntary 2.2 million bpd in cuts that major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia had initiated earlier this year to support prices. However, the market was also supported by the news that Saudi Arabia raised the August price for its flagship Arab Light crude to a four-month high for Asia, in a show of confidence in oil demand by the world’s largest crude exporter. Gold dips Gold prices were pressured by a steady dollar and more tariff threats from Trump, while strong payrolls data from last week also dented bets that interest rates will fall soon. The greenback’s biggest point of support was a sharp scaling back in expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates once again. Higher rates stand to benefit the dollar and weigh on metal prices, which are largely pegged to the currency. Spot gold was down 1.0% to $3,302.95 an ounce, while gold futures for September fell 1.1% to $3,311.62/oz by 06:40 ET.

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TSX futures inch lower as traders eye Middle East violence, Fed comments Investing.com - Futures linked to Canada’s main stock exchange edged lower on Thursday, as investors assessed ongoing violence in the Middle East and a key interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. By 06:41 ET (10:41 GMT), the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract had slipped by 5 points, or 0.3%. U.S. financial markets are due to be closed for the Juneteenth holiday. In the prior session, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose by 0.07% to 26,559.85 points, boosted by health care, information technology, industrial and real estate shares. The Fed chose to leave interest rates steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% following the conclusion of its latest two-day meeting on Wednesday, although official projections indicated that policymakers still expect to draw down borrowing costs this year. In an update to its all-important "dot plot", rates are still expected to slide by 50 basis points in 2025, matching prior predictions in March and December. Yet the pace of reductions next year and in 2027 was slowed, signalling that the Fed could be gearing up for a longer fight to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Chair Jerome Powell warned that the impact from Trump’s sweeping tariff agenda is likely coming, and could lead to a "meaningful" uptick in consumer price growth. Canadian stocks were choppy in the wake of Powell’s comments, with the S&P/TSX paring back some of its earlier gains. Markets also remained on edge as traders eyed the possible involvement of the U.S. in an intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran. Crude gains Oil prices have advanced in recent days due to the fighting, with fears surrounding its potential impact on crucial crude supply flows out of the Middle East. On Thursday, oil prices continued to edge up. At 06:57 ET, Brent futures climbed 0.9% to $77.38 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.9% to $74.19 a barrel. Direct U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran violence could widen the conflict, putting energy infrastructure in the region at higher risk of attack, especially key shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) on Wednesday said a geopolitical risk premium of about $10 a barrel is justified given lower Iranian supply and risk of wider disruption that could push Brent crude above $90 a barrel. Gold subdued Gold prices were muted as the Fed’s decision strengthened the dollar and pressured bullion, while rising geopolitical risks losses. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $3,374.21 an ounce, while gold futures for August declined 0.5% to $3,390.85/oz by 06:58 ET.

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TSX futures dip ahead of key tech earnings, crucial U.S. economic data Investing.com - Futures tied to Canada’s main stock exchange edged lower on Wednesday, as investors eyed a bevy of corporate earnings and key U.S. economic data against indications of a possible easing in aggressive U.S. tariffs. By 07:10 ET (11:10 GMT), the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract had fallen by 4 points, or 0.2%. Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended higher by 75.89, or 0.3%, at 24,874.48, notiching its highest closing level since April 2. The uptick came after current Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals topped the rival Conversatives in a parliamentary election on Monday. The Liberals’ victory was partly fueled by a widespread backlash to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada and threats to annex the country. Carney has adopted a tough line with Trump, and has vowed to shepherd the economy through a trade war by lifting public spending. U.S. futures mixed U.S. stock futures hovered around both sides of the flatline ahead of the release of a deluge of economic data and major corporate earnings, as a volatile month comes to an end. At 07:11 ET, Dow Jones futures gained 49 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 Futures fell 10 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures slipped 71 points, or 0.4%. The main stock indices closed higher Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.8%, and both the S&P 500 index and the NASDAQ Composite adding 0.6%. It has been a turbulent month on Wall Street, with the major averages gradually narrowing the month’s losses after the announcement of U.S. tariffs at the start prompted heavy selling. The S&P 500 briefly entered a bear market early in April, but is now down just 0.9% this month. The Dow is on pace for a 3.5% loss in April, while the Nasdaq is about 0.9% higher. Easing trade tensions help tone Sentiment has been improving on the hope that the worst of the tariffs announcements may be behind the market, helped by Trump’s move to sign two orders on Tuesday to ease the impact of auto tariffs, offering tax credits and tariff relief on materials. The decision came as Trump visited Michigan, a major auto manufacturing hub, just before a new set of 25% tariffs on auto parts were about to begin. In another positive note, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC that the U.S. had reached a deal with one foreign country to permanently ease Trump’s so-called "reciprocal" tariffs. Lutnick did not name the country. Q1 growth data, PCE inflation awaited That said, some economic damage may already have been done, as data on Tuesday showed that the consumer confidence index dropped to its lowest reading since May 2020. Additionally, JOLTS job openings for March fell to 7.192 million from 7.48 million. The spotlight will now be on the advance GDP estimate for the January-March quarter due later in the session, amid expectations this will show the weakest growth rate since the second quarter of 2022, with a negative read possible. The other two key releases today are the ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) employment figures for April and March’s core PCE - the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. These data points could offer an early indicators of whether Trump’s tariffs are denting the wider economy -- an outcome that has been predicted by many economists. Meanwhile, a busy earnings week, with about one-third of S&P 500-listed firms slated to post results, continues, with the focus mostly on numbers from software giant Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Facebook-owner Meta (NASDAQ:META) Platforms after the close Wednesday. Crude set for monthly drop Oil prices fell Wednesday, on course for their largest monthly drop in more than three years as the global trade war hit demand growth forecasts. Both contracts have lost over 15% so far this month, the biggest percentage drop since November 2021. Worries about demand amid the trade war have weighed on investor sentiment, while weak Chinese manufacturing activity data, released earlier Wednesday, has also played into this narrative. Gold extends losses Gold prices extended declines, as the Trump administration reduced the impact of auto tariffs, while investors cautiously awaited key U.S. data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. Despite the dip, gold was set for its fourth consecutive monthly rise, with a nearly 6% jump in April so far. As of 07:17 ET, spot gold fell 1.2% to $3,278.15 per ounce, while gold futures expiring in June lost 1.4% to $3,286.56 an ounce. (Peter Nurse and Reuters contributed reporting.)

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TSX futures rise as investors assess tariff developments (Reuters) - Futures tied to Canada’s main stock index edged higher on Thursday, after the index declined in the previous session as U.S. President Donald Trump imposed auto tariffs. June futures on the S&P/TSX index were up 0.3% at 06:22 a.m. ET, (1022 GMT), mirroring a recovery on Wall Street. Trump unveiled a 25% tariff on imported vehicles on Wednesday, set to take effect on April 3, a day after he plans to announce reciprocal tariffs. Fourth quarter U.S. GDP reading is due before the bell, before a crucial inflation reading in the United States on Friday. Precious metal miners would also be in focus on Thursday, as prices of both gold and silver ticked up amid the tariff uncertainty. Materials and mining stocks account for more than 12% of the TSX, according to LSEG data. Global markets had rallied earlier this week when Trump indicated that not all of his threatened reciprocal levies would be imposed on April 2 and that some countries may get breaks. But the Canadian benchmark fell 0.7% in the last session, bogged down by losses in mining and technology shares, coming off its more than three-week high notched on Tuesday. The index is now down more than 2% from its all-time high in January.

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