Stocks extend gains in countdown to US payrolls: Markets Wrap - InvestmentNews Stocks extend gains in countdown to US payrolls: Markets Wrap  InvestmentNews

Click Subscribe #Stocks #USPayrolls #InvestmentNews #MarketUpdate #Finance

European stocks edge higher ahead of hotly-anticipated U.S. payrolls report Investing.com - European stock markets edged up, as traders looked ahead to Friday’s release of the latest U.S. jobs report, which could have implications for upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. By 04:04 ET (08:04 GMT), the pan-European Stoxx 600 had climbed by 0.3%, putting it on pace to end the week slightly higher. Meanwhile, the Dax in Germany added 0.1%, France’s CAC 40 rose by 0.1%, and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. advanced by 0.2%. Economists expect the data from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics to show that the U.S. added 75,000 roles in August, up slightly from 73,000 in July. Analysts have suggested that a soft or even tepid reading could all but cement expectations of a Fed rate reduction at the central bank’s September 16-17 gathering. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a nearly 100% chance of a 25-basis point drawdown in borrowing costs from the Fed’s current target range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Fed officials are facing pressures to both pillars of their mandate -- keeping price growth stable and promoting maximum employment -- although recent comments from policymakers have indicated that the supporting the labor market may be their current priority. Cutting interest rates can help to spur spending by businesses and consumers, albeit at the risk of pushing up lingering inflation. Separate labor market data earlier this week further bolstered wagers that the Fed will slash rates this month. Figures showed that private-sector hiring slowed last month, while new weekly claims for unemployment benefits inched up by more than anticipated -- both fresh indications of a possible cooling in the American jobs picture. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. In individual stocks, shares in Hexagon surged after the Swedish group announced a $3.16 billion deal to sell its design and engineering division to U.S. firm Cadence Design. The transaction is anticipated to close in the first quarter of next year. Meanwhile, Orsted shares slipped after the Danish energy company brought down its operating outlook due to lower wind speeds than usual. Banking software name Temenos also slid after it announced the immediate departure of CEO Jean-Pierre Brulard. Most investors will find it hard to answer that question with total confidence. Short of a guarantee, which no one can give you, the most successful traders stick to proven best practices without letting hype or hyper-vigilance take over their better judgment. But that doesn't mean you can't use smart shortcuts. If you're considering CDNS, try chatting with WarrenAI, our powerful AI financial assistant. It's just like ChatGPT for investors, but with access to 10 years of company data, a built-in screener, Wall Street analysts' reports, and earnings call transcripts for real-time, vetted insights. Even if you end up going with your gut feeling, at least you'll know why.

Click Subscribe #EuropeanStocks #Investing #StockMarket #USPayrolls #FinanceNews

Asian stocks track Wall Street higher, bond yields ease before US payrolls - Reuters Asian stocks track Wall Street higher, bond yields ease before US payrolls  Reuters

Click Subscribe #AsiaStocks #WallStreet #BondYields #USPayrolls #FinancialNews

US payrolls revisions jolt markets, making Fed look behind the curve By Davide Barbuscia NEW YORK (Reuters) -News of a surprise weakening in the U.S. labor market last month jolted investors on Friday, as hefty revisions to past months raised fears the Federal Reserve may have been flying blind in recent months and may need to play catch-up with interest rate cuts. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 73,000 jobs in July after rising by a downwardly revised 14,000 in June, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its employment report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by 110,000 jobs after rising by a previously reported 147,000 in June. The report comes two days after the U.S. central bank left unchanged its benchmark interest rate and avoided signaling imminent rate cuts, dialing back market expectations for an easing at the next policy meeting in September. That changed dramatically on Friday, with odds for a 25 basis point cut in September jumping to around 81% after the data from 38% on Thursday, according to CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) data. "The Fed’s job is becoming increasingly difficult based on the deterioration of the economic data," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. "These revisions are massive and really are a game changer to the Fed’s reaction function, and so I think this Fed meeting is one that they’d like to revise." Revisions for May and June came in well above the norm, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. It gave no reason for the revised data but noted that "monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors." May’s nonfarm payroll gain was slashed by 125,000, from 144,000 to just 19,000, while June’s downward revision was by 133,000. In total, employment over the two months is now 258,000 lower than initially reported. "It is painfully obvious that the U.S. government has an improper model for payroll calculations," said Michael Green, portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management. "If you don’t have reliable data, you make bad policy." Spencer Hakimian, founder of macro hedge fund Tolou Capital Management, said layoffs across several government departments, part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to reduce wasteful government spending, have prompted him to rely more heavily on alternative measures of economic strength than just government data, such as credit card data, and data from Truflation, an independent inflation index alternative to official government inflation measures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference on Wednesday the labor market remained strong, and that the central bank was still in the early stages of grasping how Trump’s overhaul of import taxes and other policy shifts would play out for inflation, employment, and economic growth. "Had those figures been the initial prints a month or two ago it would have significantly changed the labor market narrative over the entire summer," said Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors, in a note. Treasury yields, which move inversely to bond prices, dropped after the data, with benchmark 10-year yields down by a whopping 15 basis points in mid-morning trade at 4.251% from about 4.4% before the data was published - their biggest daily drop since April. Two-year yields were down by about 20 basis points to 3.753% from 3.951% earlier on Friday, registering their biggest daily decline since August last year. Stocks declined too, also weighed on by Trump’s latest tariffs salvo. The benchmark S&P 500 index . was down 1.5% in late morning trade, bringing stocks to their lowest since early July. The deterioration in the labor picture comes amid steep U.S. tariffs on large trade partners that - while not as high as feared earlier this year - are still largely expected to worsen inflation and slow economic activity. "With job creation at stall-speed levels and the tariff headwind lying ahead, there’s a strong possibility of a negative payroll print in the coming months which may conjure up fears of a recession," said Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments.

Click Subscribe. #USPayrolls #MarketNews #FedPolicy #EconomicTrends #Investing

European stocks rise on trade optimism; U.S. payrolls loom large Investing.com - European stocks rose Thursday on continued trade optimism, although gains have been tempered by caution ahead of the release of the widely-watched monthly U.S. jobs report. At 03:05 ET (07:05 GMT), the DAX index in Germany gained 0.4%, the CAC 40 in France climbed 0.3% and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. rose 0.5%. Trade optimism after Wall Street highs European equities have benefited from the positive tone seen on Wall Street overnight – with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite indices posting respective record highs – after President Donald Trump said the U.S. had reached a trade agreement with Vietnam. Although details remain unclear, this announcement has raised hopes that more deals will be announced before the July 9 deadline, in line with the previously announced trade deal with China, which resulted in the Trump administration overnight lifting restrictions on chip design software sales in China. The European Commission, which is negotiating on behalf of the EU, is set to hold meetings with the Trump administration this week. U.S. payrolls loom large The European data slate includes services activity data for the eurozone as a whole later in the session, but the day’s main risk event will be the U.S. payrolls report. Analysts are forecasting a rise of 110,000 in June, a drop from May’s 139,000, with the jobless rate ticking up to 4.3%, but the possibility of a weaker number exists given Wednesday’s private sector payrolls report recorded the first fall in over two years. The resilience of the U.S. labor market has helped reassure the majority of Federal Reserve members that they can afford to hold off on cutting rates until they can gauge the real impact of tariffs on inflation. The market currently sees around a 25% probability for a July Fed rate cut, but a weak report could see these odds increase substantially. U.K. political turmoil Investors will also be keeping a close eye on events in the U.K. after gilt yields jumped sharply on Wednesday on investor anxiety over Britain’s finances after the government’s reversal on welfare reforms, with U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves appearing visibly upset in Parliament. The government said Reeves was dealing with a “personal matter” and Prime Minister Keir Starmer later said she has his full support. Currys boosted by solid sales growth In the corporate sector, Currys (LON:CURY) posted stronger-than-expected annual results, as solid sales growth and tight cost control helped the British electronics retailer offset inflationary pressures and higher wage costs. Watches Of Switzerland (LON:WOSG) projected full-year revenue growth of 6% to 10%, after the British luxury retailer’s U.S. business revenue surpassed the $1 billion mark for the first time, driven by strong consumer demand. Oil prices retreat Crude prices fell Thursday, handing back some of the previous session’s gains after an unexpected build in U.S. inventories and ahead of an upcoming OPEC+ meeting, which is expected to result in an output hike. At 03:05 ET, Brent futures dropped 0.8% to $68.58 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.8% to $66.90 a barrel. Both contracts gained around 3% on Wednesday, rising to their highest in one week as Iran suspended cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, raising concerns the lingering dispute over the Middle East producer’s nuclear program may result in a disruption to supply from this region. U.S. oil inventories grew by 3.85 million barrels last week, government data showed on Wednesday, raising questions about just how strong fuel demand will be this summer season. OPEC+, a group of top producers, will meet over the weekend, and is expected to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in August.

Click Subscribe #EuropeanStocks #TradeOptimism #USPayrolls #StockMarket #Investing

Asian shares tick up ahead of US payrolls test; Trump’s tax bill in focus By Stella Qiu SYDNEY (Reuters) -Asian shares edged higher on Thursday as investors braced for a key U.S. jobs report that may justify imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and waited on the passage of a massive U.S. tax and spending bill in Congress. Wall Street climbed overnight to close at new record highs after President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. has struck a trade deal with Vietnam, including a 20% tariff on exports to the U.S. That fuelled hopes that more deals will be forthcoming, with negotiations underway for a trade agreement with India. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced 0.2% to hover just below a near four-year top. Japan’s Nikkei was flat. China’s blue chips edged up 0.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.6% after data showed China’s services activity expanded at the slowest pace in nine months in June. Both Nasdaq futures and S&P 500 futures were little changed in Asia [.N] Investors were waiting for Trump’s massive tax and spending bill to pass the House of Representatives for possible final approval. The bill is expected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt, slash taxes and reduce social safety net programs. The main risk event for markets will be the U.S. payrolls figures due later in the day. Analysts are forecasting a rise of 110,000 in June with the jobless rate ticking up to 4.3% but the stakes are high after a private sector payrolls report surprised with the first fall in over two years. The resilience of the labour market is a major reason the majority of Federal Reserve members say they can afford to hold off on cutting rates until they can gauge the real impact of tariffs on inflation. "These labour market indicators warn of the risk that the unemployment rate could spike to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021," said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG. "This would quickly increase the probability of a July Fed rate cut to around 70%." Futures imply just a 25% probability for a rate cut this month from the Fed, which has not eased policy at all this year, drawing the ire of Trump who reiterated his call on Wednesday for Chair Jerome Powell to resign. The Treasuries market was tense before the data as a weak jobs report would send yields sharply lower. Ten-year Treasury bond yield slipped 2 basis points to 4.265% on Thursday, while two-year yields eased 2 bps to 3.77%. The dollar is again under pressure, having caught some relief overnight. Concerns about the Fed’s independence in the wake of Trump’s criticism have driven the dollar to its lowest against its peers in over three years. Trump, who said rates should be cut to 1% from the current Fed benchmark rate of 4.25% to 4.50%, has repeatedly railed against Powell for not lowering borrowing costs since his return to the White House in January. The euro inched up 0.1% to $1.1807, just a whisker away from a nearly four-year top of $1.1829 hit on Tuesday, while sterling added 0.1%, recovering a steep 0.8% fall overnight, as fears about the future of its finance minister Rachel Reeves eased. Investor anxiety over UK finances after the British government’s reversal on welfare reforms caused gilt yields to jump overnight, up nearly 23 basis points at one point, the most since October 2022. In commodities markets, oil prices were slightly lower after jumping 3% overnight as Iran suspended cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog. U.S. crude futures slipped 0.4% to $67.20 a barrel while Brent was at $68.84 per barrel, also 0.4% lower on the day. Gold prices eased 0.4% to $3,342 an ounce.

Click Subscribe. #AsianMarkets #USPayrolls #TrumpTaxBill #StockMarket #EconomicNews

Dollar drifts as traders hunker down for US payrolls By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The dollar wobbled on Thursday after a trade agreement between the United States and Vietnam fuelled optimism over potential future deals ahead of a July 9 tariff deadline, while investors looked to payrolls to assess the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Sterling firmed slightly after a sharp drop the previous session as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office rushed to give Finance Minister Rachel Reeves his full backing, hoping to allay investor worries about Britain’s finances. The pound dropped nearly 1% and British government bonds tumbled on Wednesday, as a tearful appearance by Reeves in parliament a day after the government backed down on its welfare reforms reignited concern over Britain’s finances. The pound last fetched $1.3647, slightly higher in Asian hours, while the euro was steady at $1.1806, hovering close to the September 2021 top it touched earlier this week. The yen firmed a bit to 143.56 per dollar. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six other units, was at 96.701, still near the 3-1/2-year lows it has been rooted to this week. The index is on course for a 0.5% drop in the week. Investor attention will be on the U.S. Labor Department’s comprehensive employment report for June, due to be released on Thursday ahead of the July 4 holiday after data showed private payrolls fell for the first time in more than two years in June. The ADP report released on Wednesday pushed traders to shift expectations of when the Fed will cut interest rates. Traders are pricing in 25% chance of the Fed moving in July versus 20% a day earlier, CME FedWatch tool showed. "The ADP print has certainly raised the stakes for nonfarm payrolls today," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore. "What could earlier have been interpreted as ’bad news is good news’ (softer data pushing the Fed to cut) may now simply be seen as bad news, especially if recession concerns take hold." Ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline, President Donald Trump announced Vietnam had struck a trade deal with the U.S. and could push other countries to reach similar agreements on duties. Although details were scant, Trump said Vietnamese goods would face a 20% tariff and trans-shipments from third countries through Vietnam will face a 40% levy. "What’s important to watch now is how China responds, given that the move directly targets trans-shipped goods at a higher 40% tariff rate," said Saxo’s Chanana. "It’s a clear signal that global supply chains are being reshaped, and more disruption may be ahead." Meanwhile, Republicans in the House of Representatives struggled to pass Trump’s massive tax-cut and spending bill as a handful of hardliners withheld their support over concerns about its cost. The bill is expected to add $3.3 trillion to the already swelling national debt, stoking fiscal worries. Bond investors around the world are growing increasingly nervous about government deficits from Japan to the United States. Eddy Loh, chief investment officer at Maybank Wealth Management, said the U.S. government may be "somewhat constrained about how much fiscal support they can do to boost the economy without creating too many deficit concerns." With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

Click Subscribe. #Dollar #Forex #USPayrolls #Trading #Economy

Click Subscribe #TSXFutures #USPayrolls #StockMarket #Investing #TradeDeal

April US payrolls growth slows before full tariff impact felt (Reuters) -U.S. job growth slowed marginally in April, but the outlook for the labor market is increasingly darkening as President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policy heightens economic uncertainty. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 jobs last month after rising by a downwardly revised 185,000 in March, the Labor Department said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 130,000 jobs added last month after a previously reported 228,000 advance in March. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. It is too early for the labor market to show the impact of Trump’s on-and-off again tariffs policy. Amid the uncertainty, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep benchmark interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range next week. Economists expect companies will reduce hours before resorting to mass layoffs. MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: S&P 500 E-minis added to gains and were up 0.85%, pointing to a solid open on Wall Street BONDS: The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notesrose to 3.2676%, the two-year note yield rose to 3.744%FOREX: The dollar index pared a loss and was 0.30% lower, while the euro extended 0.27% higher COMMENTS: MARK MALEK, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, SIEBERT NXT, NEW YORK “We are expecting a slow decline in a non-farm payroll growth and while it’s not positive by any means it’s better than could’ve been expected. I think there were whisper numbers around there that were significantly less and I think people were somewhat braced for a bigger potential drop. The unemployment rate remains the same that was pretty positive.” ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH, FAIRFIELD, CONNECTICUT "The economy isn’t collapsing as people were worried about. We came in better than expected, both on the nonfarm payrolls report itself, but then it didn’t show any real increase to average hourly earnings and so that came in a little bit lighter than expected. So that takes the concerns of wage pressures a little bit out of the picture." "The market likes the news. There’ll be some out there that will point to a lagging indicator the fact that the Liberation Day sort of came and didn’t necessarily get completely factored into non farm payrolls. But I really wouldn’t worry too much about that yet. I would focus more on the positive aspect of this report -- the positivity that the US economy is continuing to move forward and still healthy enough, not gangbusters, but still healthy enough." MARK MALEK, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, SIEBERT NXT, NEW YORK “The numbers are holding up: so obviously the survey was worth for 138,000 and we came in slightly higher but last month was revised significantly downward. I think it just reflects what the consensus is expecting. We are expecting a slow decline in a non-farm payroll growth and while it’s not positive by any means it’s better than could’ve been expected. I think there were whisper numbers around there that were significantly less and I think people were somewhat braced for a bigger potential drop. The unemployment rate remains the same that was pretty positive.” SAMEER SAMANA, HEAD OF GLOBAL EQUITIES AND REAL ASSETS, WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA "We’ve reached a steady state for the labor market. We went from too hot to kind of just right in terms of job growth, in terms of wage growth, in terms of the unemployment rate. So again until something more meaningful changes with respect to the supply or demand for labor it’s fair to say that it’s going to just keep chugging along." "Probably the big risk to the downside is that trade tensions flare up again. At least right now with the 90-day delay there’s still some hope that things get worked out." "Consumers are still spending and that’s driving continued job growth. The number was better than expected for this time, but it was revised lower for last time so if you take the two of them together its basically kind of right in line. So, the labor market is almost acting exactly as expected. It’s just settling into normal." "If anything, it probably reinforces the Fed’s stance of being on hold for longer because continued steadiness in the labor market is what they’re pointing to as the reason why it might take them some time to cut." CHRIS ZACCARELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER FOR NORTHLIGHT ASSET MANAGEMENT IN CHARLOTTE (by email) "Markets breathed a sigh of relief this morning as the jobs data came in better than expected. While recession fears are still simmering on the back burner, the buy-the-dip dynamic can continue – at least until the tariff pause runs out. We’ve already seen how financial markets will react if the administration moves forward with their initial tariff plan, so unless they take a different tack in July when the 90-day pause expires, we will see market action similar to the first week of April. "If adjustments can be made and the new approach is more nuanced, with exemptions for activity that leads to the administration’s ultimate goals and more reasonable tariff levels, then the real economy can re-adjust and markets will take it in stride, however, we aren’t out of the woods yet, because it’s unclear how much different the US trade approach will be in the second half of 2025 versus what we’ve seen year-to-date." MELISSA BROWN, MANAGING DIRECTOR OF INVESTMENT DECISION RESEARCH, SIMCORP, NEW YORK " This is good employment data which suggests that the economy remains strong. The one thing it suggests is that, even though everybody has been so worried about stagflation, maybe we managed to continue to grow without growing so much that we ignite inflation. I don’t know if this is necessarily going to change anything (interest rate cut bets) because we’re still looking at a strong economy at least for now. We could see these numbers go down as the impact of tariffs really starts to make its way through the economy, but it’s not there yet." PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK “This trend remains positive. Basically, (this report) indicates you know that the labor market is stable for now.” “(March’s downward revision) makes this report even stronger.” “Hourly wages are positive, you know, and that gives the Fed more time to assess the inflationary impact of tariffs.” “The participation rate ticking up is probably not significant and probably due to the fact that total unemployment is still at 4.2%.” “The bottom line is this was stronger than we expected and that it probably means that the economy is still not in recession.” “The takeaway is this report supports the Fed staying on course at the next week’s meeting and the Fed will likely continue to stay on hold.” “So that puts the June meeting in question again.” BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN "Employment is holding in there, but manufacturing is feeling the pinch. The diffusion index for manufacturing - related to how many industries are growing versus shrinking - has dropped to 42. It’s back to the muddy recessionary conditions for manufacturing. In April there was a big jump in hours worked in retail and transportation as people made their last ditch efforts to buy goods before prices adjusted." LINDSAY ROSNER, HEAD OF MULTI SECTOR FIXED INCOME INVESTING, GOLDMAN SACHS ASSET MANAGEMENT (emailed comments) “Strong jobs data puts a spring in the Fed’s step. Despite an increasingly uncertain economic backdrop, the US labor market remained resilient in April with employment surprising to the upside and the unemployment rate remaining steady. In the here and now, solid labor market data provides the Fed with scope for patience. With the forward-looking outlook having deteriorated, however, today’s data feels somewhat backward looking and the risks remain that a weakening economy could see the Fed resume its easing cycle later in the year.” Which stock should you buy in your very next trade? With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

Click Subscribe. #Economy #USPayrolls #JobGrowth #Tariffs #Employment