What’s coming for U.S.-Brazil trade? Expert answers
Investing.com -- The looming August 1st deadline for potential U.S. tariffs against Brazil has prompted a dual-front negotiation strategy from Brazil, according to Thiago de Aragão, CEO of Arko Advice, as cited by Jefferies in a recent note.
De Aragão, a senior researcher at CSIS and a board member of the FightCancer Global Organization, shared insights on the political and economic factors at play during a recent call hosted by Jefferies.
The U.S. threat of 50% tariffs against Brazil is viewed as a calculated blend of political leverage and economic ambition, a tactic seen before in the Trump administration, de Aragão said.
While a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva flagged political demands, such as Supreme Court action against former President Jair Bolsonaro, which are outside Lula’s authority, economic calls to reduce protectionism went unaddressed.
Lula, meanwhile, has reportedly benefited politically from the crisis, using the confrontation to shift the narrative and rally support around sovereignty, especially as his approval ratings have slipped year-to-date.
However, a prolonged standoff could risk damaging the Brazilian economy and undermining Lula’s political gains.
Brazil’s response to the tariff threat is unfolding on two distinct fronts: government negotiations and private sector lobbying.
De Aragão noted the Brazilian government’s difficulty in navigating what he described as Trump’s vague negotiation style, with no clear demands.
Some Brazilian firms are reportedly seeking to bypass the government to secure carve-outs, aiming to protect their interests, a model that has reportedly worked for Mexico.
This fragmented approach, de Aragão suggested, could risk undermining Brazil’s overall negotiation position.
A favorable outcome for Brazil would involve capping tariffs at 10-15%, according to de Aragão.
Achieving this, however, could necessitate costly concessions from Lula for the domestic economy, though such moves might allow him to demonstrate that he defended sovereignty.
Potential levers for Brazil include reducing subsidies on items like ethanol and corn, and opening markets to U.S. goods.
These actions carry fiscal costs and could risk alienating pro-Bolsonaro sectors. Lula’s challenge is to balance these risks with the need to present a robust deal both domestically and internationally.
The lack of time and clarity is reportedly pushing stakeholders to prepare for the worst-case scenario rather than actively negotiate for a more favorable outcome.
With the August 1st deadline nearing, Brazil may retaliate against U.S. tariffs, potentially targeting pharmaceutical and technology sectors, according to Thiago de Aragão.
Actions could include breaking pharma patents or imposing tariffs on U.S. e-commerce, aiming to pressure influential U.S. industries.
This situation might escalate before improving, similar to the U.S.-China trade war, as Trump may be awaiting a strong trade proposal from Lula.
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