Wiobs

@wiobs.bsky.social

1 week ago

Gold Rebounds as Dollar Slips, Rate Fears Persist - Gold prices rise on weaker dollar, but inflation fears and high interest rates keep pressure on bullion amid global energy market...

Gold Rebounds as Dollar Slips, Rate Fears Persist
wiobs.com/gold-rebound...
#goldprices #goldmarketoutlook #inflationandgold #interestratesimpact #oilpricessurge #dollarweakness #preciousmetalsmarket #globaleconomy

Fazen Capital

@fazencapital.bsky.social

1 week ago

Gold Rises After US Iran Proposal as Dollar Softens Gold rose ~0.8% to $2,160/oz on Mar 25, 2026 as the DXY fell 0.6% and Brent slipped 2.1%, per Investing.com — a headline-driven move with structural implications.

Gold Rises After US Iran Proposal as Dollar Softens: Gold rose ~0.8% to $2,160/oz on Mar 25, 2026 as the DXY fell 0.6% and Brent slipped 2.1%, per Investing.com — a headline-driven move with structural implications. 👈 Read full analysis #GoldMarket #Investing #SafeHaven #DollarWeakness #MarketTrends

Vinetur Global

@vineturglobal.bsky.social

1 week ago

Italian Wine Exports Drop 3.7% in 2025 as US Tariffs and Weak Dollar Hit Sales US market contraction accounts for nearly 60% of export deficit, prompting calls for industry adaptation and diversification

FYI: Italian Wine Exports Drop 3.7% in 2025 as US Tariffs and Weak Dollar Hit Sales #ItalianWine #WineExports #USMarket #Tariffs #DollarWeakness

Don Curren 🇨🇦🇺🇦

@dbcurren.bsky.social

2 months ago

Bloomberg: #Gold briefly topped $5,300 an ounce, extending a breakneck #rally fueled by #dollarweakness and a flight from #sovereign #bonds and #currencies.

fetchfeeds.com

@fetchfeeds.bsky.social

2 months ago

Dollar weakens due to improved economic outlook & lingering fears, sparking Sterling's rally. #DollarWeakness https://fefd.link/nJgkL

Bullion Trading LLC (NYC)

@bulliontradingllc.bsky.social

2 months ago

Gold Near $5,000, Silver at $99 — This Is Getting Loud

Gold is flirting with $5K, silver’s knocking on $100, and the dollar looks nervous. #gold #silver #preciousmetals #inflation #dollarweakness #nyc #newyorkcity #bulliontradingnyc #bulliontradingllc

Afriforesight

@afriforesight.bsky.social

3 months ago

#GlobalMarkets #MarketUpdate #InterestRates #USInflation #FederalReserve #StockMarket #BigTech #Crypto #Commodities #DollarWeakness #Copper #Silver #MetalMarkets #COMEX #LME #ShanghaiMetals #Geopolitics #ChinaJapan #USPolitics #AIbubble #EconomicOutlook

Profit Trading USA

@profittradingusa.bsky.social

7 months ago

Stocks decline with tech shares; dollar weakens as US inflation data in line - Reuters Stocks decline with tech shares; dollar weakens as US inflation data in line  Reuters

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Profit Trading USA

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7 months ago

US stock indexes rise but Nvidia shares dip; dollar weakens - Reuters US stock indexes rise but Nvidia shares dip; dollar weakens  Reuters

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Profit Trading USA

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7 months ago

Fed rate-cut drumbeat pegs back dollar; Asian stocks take a breather By Jaspreet Kalra SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar was under pressure on Thursday as traders piled into wagers that the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates next month, powering Bitcoin to a record high, while a blistering rally in regional stocks took a breather. MSCI’s gauge of equities in Asia excluding Japan nudged higher and lingered near its loftiest level since September 2021, taking cues from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit new closing highs for the second straight day. The MSCI All Country World Index rose to a record high for the second straight session on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei fell after a searing six-day rally that boosted it past the 43,000 mark for the first time. Shares in Korea and Taiwan were slightly lower as well. China’s blue-chip stock index and shares in Hong Kong gained. The dollar fell to a two-week low against a basket of major peers on shifting expectations of U.S. rate cuts, with comments from the U.S. Treasury Secretary also helping bolster expectations of an outsized 50 basis point cut. The Japanese yen hit a three-week high of 146.38 per dollar in early trading. [FRX/] Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that an aggressive half-point cut was possible in September after revised labour market data from last week showed that job growth had slowed sharply in May, June and July. Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday in a research note it expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver three 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year and two more in 2026. Traders are pricing in certainty of a rate cut in September with odds of a 50 bps cut rising to 7%, up from 0% a week earlier. While a tame U.S. inflation report this week boosted the case for rate cuts, some analysts have cautioned against market complacency, saying that upcoming data may alter expectations. "We’re not as convinced of a 25bp FOMC rate cut in September as financial markets, let alone a 50bp rate cut," said Carol Kong, economist and currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "There will be another CPI and payrolls report ahead of the September meeting that can make or break the case for a rate cut," Kong said. BITCOIN, GOLD Optimism on monetary policy easing in the world’s largest economy also powered cryptocurrency bitcoin to an all-time high of $124,002.49 with analysts also pointing to recent financial sector reforms as a tailwind for the asset class. Bitcoin has risen 32% so far in 2025, and the second largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, has climbed 41% and is hovering just shy of its all-time high hit in November 2021. In commodity markets, gold prices rose 0.5% to $3,371 and crude oil prices edged up after hitting a two-month low on Wednesday as investors kept their focus on the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Friday. [O/R] [GOL/] Trump on Wednesday threatened "severe consequences" if Putin did not agree to peace in Ukraine but also said that a meeting between them could swiftly be followed by a second one that would include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. In the past, Trump has said both sides will have to swap land to end fighting that has cost tens of thousands of lives and displaced millions. "While lack of progress towards a ceasefire may lead to renewed threats of secondary oil tariffs/sanctions, we see limited risk of large disruptions in Russia supply," analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note. Large volumes of Russian exports, the possibility of deepening price discounts to maintain demand, and the likely eagerness of key buyers India, and especially China, to continue energy cooperation with Russia are expected to avert major disruptions, they said. Trump signed an executive order last week levying an additional 25% tariff on India’s exports to the U.S., saying that the country directly or indirectly imported Russian oil. He has also hinted at similar tariffs on China. With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

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Profit Trading USA

@profittradingusa.bsky.social

8 months ago

Dollar weakens as rate cut odds rise, tariff uncertainties linger By Ankur Banerjee and Gregor Stuart Hunter SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar wavered on Tuesday as the rising odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts weighed on sentiment, while investors assessed the broader economic impact of U.S. tariffs unleashed last week. The dollar remained under pressure following Friday’s U.S. jobs report that showed cracks in the labour market, prompting traders to swiftly price in rate cuts next month. U.S. President Donald Trump’s firing of a top statistics official and the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler also exacerbated market unease, leading to a sharp dive in the dollar on Friday. The U.S. currency found its footing on Monday but was weaker in early trading on Tuesday. The euro last bought $1.1579 while sterling stood at $1.3298. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six other units, was at 98.688 after touching a one-week low earlier in the session. Traders are now pricing in a 94.4% chance of the Fed cutting rates in its next meeting in September, compared to 63% a week earlier, CME FedWatch tool showed. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to deliver three consecutive 25 basis point cuts starting in September, with a 50 basis point move possible if the unemployment rate climbs further in the next report. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Monday that given mounting evidence that the U.S. jobs market is softening and no signs of persistent tariff-driven inflation, the time is nearing for rate cuts. "I was willing to wait another cycle, but I can’t wait forever," Daly said. Meanwhile, the focus remains on tariff uncertainties after the latest duties imposed on scores of countries last week by Trump, stoked worries about the health of the global economy. The Japanese yen firmed slightly to 146.95 per dollar after minutes of its June policy meeting showed a few Bank of Japan board members said the central bank would consider resuming interest rate increases if trade frictions de-escalate. The Swiss franc was steady at 0.8081 per dollar after dropping 0.5% in the previous session as Switzerland geared up to make a "more attractive offer" in trade talks with Washington to avert a 39% U.S. import tariff on Swiss goods that threatens to hammer its export-driven economy. The long-term impact of the tariffs though remains uncertain, with traders bracing for volatility. "This is going to be like the pandemic, we all expect to see the transitory impact on supply chains to happen very quickly," said Rodrigo Catril, currency strategist at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) in Sydney. "It’ll probably take six months to a year to see exactly where we land and who’s going to be winners and losers from all this." In other currencies, the Australian dollar was 0.11% higher at $0.64736, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.11% to $0.5914. "While global growth means pro-growth currencies like Asian currencies and the AUD should struggle, we’ve other structural dynamics in the USD, where policies are dollar-negative." With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Sure, there are always opportunities in the stock market – but finding them feels more difficult now than a year ago. Unsure where to invest next? One of the best ways to discover new high-potential opportunities is to look at the top performing portfolios this year. ProPicks AI offers 6 model portfolios from Investing.com which identify the best stocks for investors to buy right now. For example, ProPicks AI found 9 overlooked stocks that jumped over 25% this year alone. The new stocks that made the monthly cut could yield enormous returns in the coming years. Is NABZY one of them?

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Steve

@stevefxtrader.bsky.social

8 months ago

Forex Trade
#EURJPY
Sell Stop
Entry 171.30

TP1 171.11
TP2 170.89

SL ???.?

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#USDJPY #ForexSignals #JPY #DollarWeakness #TokyoFX #DayTrading #CurrencyMarkets #GulfTraders #DubaiForex #EuropeanTraders #SmartInvesting

Profit Trading USA

@profittradingusa.bsky.social

8 months ago

Exclusive-China’s central bank asks financial institutions about dollar weakness, sources say (Reuters) -China’s central bank has asked some financial institutions about their views on recent U.S. dollar weakness, people with knowledge of the matter said. In the survey conducted last week, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) asked questions related to the U.S. dollar’s movements and the causes of its recent weakness and outlook for the Chinese yuan exchange rate, the sources said. The PBOC did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment. While the PBOC did not explicitly state the purpose of its recent survey, one of the sources said he interpreted it as a sign authorities are concerned about a sharp appreciation of the yuan against the weakening dollar. Another source directly involved in the survey said it seemed to be an assessment of the dollar’s outlook as trade negotiations with the U.S. progress. The survey comes days before U.S. President Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs on imports from dozens of countries expires on Wednesday, and a month before a reprieve on triple-digit tariffs on China expires. U.S. trade and economic policies this year have weighed heavily on the dollar. The dollar index, which reflects the U.S. currency’s performance against a basket of six others, has had its worst first half of the year since 1973, declining some 11%. It has fallen by 6.6% since April 2 alone. China’s yuan has been relatively stable, however, and is up just 1.3% since Trump’s April 2 "Liberation Day" tariffs.

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Frank Nez

@franknez.bsky.social

9 months ago

S&P Report: The US Dollar Is Primed To Weaken Further Explore why the US dollar is primed to weaken after a significant decline, marking its worst performance in decades.

S&P Report: The US Dollar Is Primed To Weaken Further

#USD #DollarWeakness #EconomicReport #CurrencyMarket #FinancialAnalysis #TrumpPolicies #USDebt #FederalReserve #SafeHaven #GlobalEconomy #TradeUncertainty #S&P #MarketTrends #InvestmentStrategy #DeDollarization #InflationImpact #News #Markets

Profit Trading USA

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9 months ago

Asian stocks waver, dollar frail as Trump's tariffs, US rate path weighs - Reuters Asian stocks waver, dollar frail as Trump's tariffs, US rate path weighs  Reuters

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Profit Trading USA

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9 months ago

Asian stocks waver, dollar frail as Trump’s tariffs, US rate path weighs By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Asian stocks slipped on Wednesday and the dollar languished near 3-1/2-year lows as investors weighed the prospect of U.S. interest rate cuts and the scramble for trade deals ahead of President Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline for tariffs. Trump said he was not considering extending the July 9 deadline for countries to negotiate trade deals with the United States, and cast doubts again that an agreement could be reached with Japan, although he expects a deal with India. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.23% in early trading, inching away from the November 2021 top it touched last week. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.78%, dragged by tech stocks. Tech-heavy Taiwan stocks and South Korea’s Kospi Index also fell after U.S. tech firms were hit hard following a strong rally in June. Data on Tuesday showed the U.S labour market remained resilient with a rise in job openings for May, sharpening the focus on the payrolls report due on Thursday as investors try to gauge when the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates next. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, under fire from Trump to cut rates immediately, reiterated that the U.S. central bank plans to "wait and learn more" about the impact of tariffs on inflation before lowering interest rates. Traders are pricing in 64 basis points of cuts this year from the Fed with the odds of a move in July at 21%. That maintained a bearish bias on the dollar. The euro last bought $1.1793, just below the three-and-half-year high it touched on Tuesday. The yen was steady at 143.52 per dollar. [FRX/] "Any disappointing economic data can prompt further dovish repricing of FOMC rate cuts and another round of USD selling," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY). "The ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ Act (OBBBA) and trade developments also have the potential to further weaken the USD if they undermine investor confidence about the U.S. economy." TRUMP’S BILL Investor focus over the last few days has pivoted to the progress of Trump’s massive tax-and-spending bill, which is expected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt. The legislation heads to the House of Representatives for possible final approval after U.S. Senate Republicans passed it by the narrowest of margins. The bill has stoked fiscal worries but the reaction was relatively muted after it passed the Senate. The benchmark U.S. 10-year yields were steady at 4.245% having touched a two-month low in the previous session. Aninda Mitra, head of Asia macro strategy at BNY Investment Institute, said the legislation "hard wires" a steady deterioration of the fiscal position and the debt trajectory of the U.S. government. "The near-term impact is mostly in the price, but the uncertainty factor could keep term premia elevated. We don’t think long-term yields will fall back materially in the 6-12 month horizon." The fiscal worries, trade uncertainties and the U.S. rate path trajectory have all led investors to flee U.S. assets and look for alternatives. Investors worry that Trump’s chaotic trade policies could hit U.S. economic growth. That has left the dollar unloved, with the greenback down over 10% for the year in its worst first half performance since the 1970s. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was at 96.649, near its lowest since March 2022. In commodities, spot gold eased to $3,332.19 per ounce, after surging 1% in the previous session. The yellow metal is up 27% this year on safe-haven flows. [GOL/] With CMWAY making headlines, savvy investors are asking: Is it truly valued fairly? In a market full of overpriced darlings, identifying true value can be challenging. InvestingPro's advanced AI algorithms have analyzed CMWAY alongside thousands of other stocks to uncover hidden gems. These undervalued stocks, potentially including CMWAY, could offer substantial returns as the market corrects. In 2024 alone, our AI identified several undervalued stocks that later surged by 30 or more. Is CMWAY poised for similar growth? Don't miss the opportunity to find out.

Click Subscribe. #AsianStocks #FinanceNews #TradeTariffs #DollarWeakness #USRatePolicy

Profit Trading USA

@profittradingusa.bsky.social

9 months ago

Asian shares rise, dollar weaker as US bill debate lingers; gold jumps By Rocky Swift TOKYO (Reuters) -Asian shares crept higher and the dollar languished near multi-year lows on Tuesday as markets awaited a vote over U.S. President Donald Trump’s landmark tax and spending legislation. Global shares reached an intraday record on Monday on trade optimism, but a marathon debate in the Senate over a bill estimated to add $3.3 trillion to the United States’ debt pile weighed on sentiment. Japan’s Nikkei gauge of shares sank as much as 1.1% as the yen climbed. Oil fell for a second consecutive session and gold advanced. A vote on Trump’s sweeping tax-cut and spending bill had been expected during the Asian trading day on Tuesday, but debate raged on over a long series of amendments by Republicans and the minority Democrats. Trump wants the bill passed before the July 4 Independence Day holiday. As global trade negotiators scramble to get deals done before Trump’s tariff deadlines, investors are also anticipating key U.S. labour market data on Thursday. "Trade is front and centre this week, but alongside that, we’ve obviously got the fate of the ’One Big Beautiful Bill’, which is currently being debated in the Senate," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at the National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY). Payrolls data later in the week "does have significant bearing, I think, on sentiment towards the potential timing of Fed rate cuts," he added in a podcast. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.5%, led by South Korea’s Kospi gauge, rising 1.8%. The dollar dropped 0.3% to 143.62 yen. The greenback slid 0.1% to $1.1794 against the European single currency and earlier touched $1.1798, the weakest since September 2021. U.S. crude dipped 0.4% to $64.86 a barrel, weighed by expectations of an OPEC+ output hike in August. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,319.55 per ounce. Pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures were up 0.1% at while German DAX futures were up 0.2%.

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AI News Brew

@ainewsbrew.bsky.social

9 months ago

Trump's Potential Early Fed Chair Nomination Sparks Market Uncertainty and Independence Concerns | AI News Brew In an unprecedented move, President Donald Trump has indicated he may announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair as early as this summer, nearly a year before current Chair Jerome Powell's t

Trump's Potential Early Fed Chair Nomination Sparks Market Uncertainty and Independence Concerns
haiku.ainewsbrew.com/article/4867

#FedChair #TrumpNomination #MarketUncertainty #DollarWeakness #CentralBankIndependence #GlobalEconomy #MonetaryPolicy #FinancialMarkets

Profit Trading USA

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9 months ago

Shares rally but dollar weakens with Fed independence seen under threat By Rae Wee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Asia shares hit their highest level in more than three years on Friday as they tracked a Wall Street rally, though the dollar struggled on concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence and expectations for early rate cuts. Stock indexes worldwide look set to end the week on a positive note, with worries about tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over tariffs and trade deals on the backburner for now. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan touched its strongest level since November 2021 early in the session. It last traded 0.2% higher and is set to clock a 3% gain for the week. Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.5% and surpassed the 40,000 mark for the first time in five months. Reasons for the upbeat mood included news that Washington has reached an agreement with Beijing on how to expedite rare earth shipments to the United States. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said on Thursday that he has asked Republicans in Congress to scrap the Section 899 retaliatory tax proposal from their tax and spending bill after Washington reached an agreement with Group of Seven industrial countries. "That was something that had been making some investors, especially foreign investors, nervous when that provision was passed by the House. So if that provision gets removed, then that allays one of the concerns from foreign investors," said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ. "The cumuluation of these various... positive developments all helped to contribute to the buoyant market mood we’re seeing." European futures also gained, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both up 0.6%, while FTSE futures advanced 0.16%. U.S. stock futures were little changed, though Wall Street had on Thursday closed near record highs, further supported by expectations of imminent Fed rate cuts. FED CUTS COMING Much of the focus for markets over the past two sessions has been on the prospect of an early change of guard at the Fed, after the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. President Donald Trump has toyed with the idea of selecting and announcing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s replacement by September or October. That knocked an already battered dollar even lower as traders fretted about an erosion of Fed independence and as they moved to price in more U.S. rate cuts this year. The dollar languished near a 3-1/2-year low on Friday and was headed for a 1.4% weekly loss, its largest decline in over a month. For the year, the greenback is already down more than 10% and if it stays that way in the next few days, that will mark its biggest first half-of-a-year fall since the start of the era of free-floating currencies in the early 1970s. Against a weaker dollar, the euro was perched near its highest in over three years at $1.1688. Sterling rose 0.03% to $1.3730. "Trump’s desire to ’shadow’ the Fed using a designated replacement for Chair Jay Powell isn’t a good way to promote the perceptions of integrity and autonomy in U.S. policymaking and, by extension, that of the reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar," said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group (OTC:MQBKY). Adding to the Fed cut bets has been a raft of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data, with attention now shifting to Friday’s release of the core PCE price index, the U.S. central bank’s preferred measure of inflation. U.S. Treasury yields were steady in Asia after falling the previous session, with the two-year yield at 3.7418% and the benchmark 10-year yield last at 4.2554%. In commodities, oil prices were set for a weekly decline with the Iran-Israel ceasefire holding and easing concerns over Middle East supply risks. [O/R] Brent crude futures were up 0.41% at $68.01 a barrel while U.S. crude rose 0.46% to $65.53 per barrel on Friday, but both were headed for a fall of more than 10% for the week. Spot gold fell 0.23% to $3,320.25 an ounce. [GOL/]

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Profit Trading USA

@profittradingusa.bsky.social

9 months ago

Analysis-Emerging market local currency debt could end decade-long drought as dollar wanes By Libby George LONDON (Reuters) -A weakening U.S. dollar is lifting a long-neglected asset class - emerging market local currency debt - after a more than decade-long drought. Emerging market local​-​currency bond funds saw a new record of inflows in the week to Wednesday, according to EPFR data, notching eight straight weeks of inflows. The nascent flows remain small - and the uncertainty of tariffs, war and other global turmoil are stemming some flows. But investors expect they will continue, giving a boost to local debt markets in large emerging markets from Brazil and Mexico to Indonesia and India. "Many of the big emerging markets tell us about all the foreign buying of debt, and that is starting to pick up across some countries," said Jonny Goulden, head of emerging market fixed income strategy at JPMorgan. "This could be a potential turning point." Yields on the JPMorgan GBI Emerging Market local currency index are at their lowest since 2022 - partly a sign of flows of international cash. Emerging market local currency government bonds have enjoyed returns of more than 10% since the start of the year - more than double the around 4% delivered by the hard-currency peers, according to JPMorgan indexes. The weaker U.S. dollar, and questions over the years-long U.S. exceptionalism trade - when investors parked cash in booming assets of the world’s largest economy - is nudging international investors to look elsewhere for bigger returns. The greenback slipped to its lowest level in more than three years last week. Slower global growth - and lower interest rates across the developed world - are adding to the hunt for yields. "The dollar is going to be much, much weaker. Bond yields or interest rates will fall - so there is a search for yield," said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management. Emerging market bonds look set to be one of the main beneficiaries of that momentum, he said. The dynamics combined are helping to end the foreign investor flight from emerging markets’ local currency bonds that Goulden said has lasted for some 14 years. In that time, JPMorgan estimates, the asset class has more than doubled from roughly $6 trillion to $13 trillion, with mainly local investors, and some global bond funds, buying. David Hauner, head of global emerging markets fixed income strategy at Bank of America, said that after years of a dollar bull market, and the U.S. exceptionalism trade, allocations to emerging markets were "absolutely rock bottom" - and had much space to grow. "This has been completely neglected for a long period of time, and now, people have to diversify," he said, adding he expected small but steady flows - and double-digit returns on local currency at the end of the year in dollar terms. The money is part of the closely watched global effort on the part of some international investors to diversify away from U.S. dollar holdings, and U.S. assets, after years of outsized returns that lured the bulk of the world’s cash. "So far this year to date, local currency has performed very well," said Carlos de Sousa, portfolio manager at Vontobel. "That’s a really direct, automatic effect" from the drop in the dollar. The fact that most emerging market central banks are broadly on a rate cutting trajectory - even as the outlook for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s actions remain more mixed - is also adding to momentum. Phoenix Kalen, global head of emerging markets research at Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY), called it "a rare moment of goldilocks for local assets." Local currency bonds, Kalen said, offer "compelling value," including in the Philippines, Czech Republic, Hungary, South Africa, Turkey, Brazil and Colombia. The current shift, Goulden, Hauner and others say, has not come close to reversing the years of outflows, and Hauner said it was more a "trickle" so far than a flood. But even small flows can have an outsized impact. "EM as an asset class is much smaller. So if you take out 1% from the U.S., that is basically the equivalent of 20% in emerging markets. So the impact of this flow could be quite meaningful," Bank of America’s Hauner said. Is SCGLY truely undervalued? With SCGLY making headlines, investors are asking: Is it truly valued fairly? InvestingPro's advanced AI algorithms have analyzed SCGLY alongside thousands of other stocks to uncover hidden gems with massive upside. And guess what? SCGLY wasn't at the top of the list.

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Profit Trading USA

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9 months ago

What Stocks Do Best When the Dollar Weakens or Strengthens - WSJ What Stocks Do Best When the Dollar Weakens or Strengthens  WSJ

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Profit Trading USA

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9 months ago

What Stocks Do Best When the Dollar Weakens or Strengthens - WSJ What Stocks Do Best When the Dollar Weakens or Strengthens  WSJ

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Profit Trading USA

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9 months ago

What Stocks Do Best When the Dollar Weakens or Strengthens - WSJ What Stocks Do Best When the Dollar Weakens or Strengthens  WSJ

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Profit Trading USA

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9 months ago

What Stocks Do Best When the Dollar Weakens or Strengthens - WSJ What Stocks Do Best When the Dollar Weakens or Strengthens  WSJ

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Profit Trading USA

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9 months ago

What Stocks Do Best When the Dollar Weakens or Strengthens - WSJ What Stocks Do Best When the Dollar Weakens or Strengthens  WSJ

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Profit Trading USA

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9 months ago

What Stocks Do Best When the Dollar Weakens or Strengthens - WSJ What Stocks Do Best When the Dollar Weakens or Strengthens  WSJ

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Profit Trading USA

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10 months ago

Analysis-FX options market positioned for further dollar weakness NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar has steadied after a sharp tumble this year but traders in the foreign exchange options market are positioned for the U.S. currency to weaken further amid growing concern about the U.S. economy and persistent trade-related tensions. Investors started the year expecting the Trump administration’s policies to boost the dollar, helped by his tax cuts and safe haven demand stemming from protectionist policies. But that view quickly soured when U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled levies in April that were larger and broader than anticipated, spiking volatility and sending the dollar to a three-year low. While a temporary pause in some of the reciprocal tariffs has helped calm nerves, the options market still paints a dour outlook for the dollar. The options market can offer a view on how investors and traders expect currencies to fare months down the line. "FX option prices in general continue to point to a greater risk of further dollar weakening," said Tim Brooks, head of FX options at Optiver. "From our perspective there is no clear single large position, but relative to the past 5-10 years, we see unprecedented demand from investors to own USD puts in comparison with at-the-money options or USD calls." Put options confer the right to sell the underlying security at a fixed price and date and are typically bought to express a bearish view. Their bullish counterpart is the call option, which grants the right to buy at a set price and known time frame. Because the foreign exchange market quotes currencies in pairs like dollars per euro, and yen per dollar, a bullish position on the euro indicates a bearish view on the dollar. FX risk reversals, a type of options strategy that involves the simultaneous purchase of a put option and sale of a call, or vice versa, are useful indicators of which currency is seeing more demand. Pricing on several of these currency pairs remains near multi-year highs despite the pause in the dollar’s slide this year, highlighting the market’s bearish stance on the buck. According to LSEG data, the three-month, six-month, and one-year 25-delta EURUSD at-the-money risk reversal measures just edged off their highest level of bullishness for the euro against the dollar on records dating to 2007, apart from a brief interlude during the 2020 pandemic’s market disruption. "Positioning remains extremely bearish on the dollar," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said. "Pricing increases across the curve, with one-year risk reversals trading well above their shorter-term equivalents, suggest that options market participants expect the euro to continue its gradual grind higher," he said. The euro is up nearly 10% against the dollar this year. DOLLAR BEARS AT PLAY Other popular bets being placed are for the dollar to fall against the yen, Sagar Sambrani, senior FX options trader at Nomura, said. Investors are building up positions in dollar puts, trades to sell the U.S. currency particularly against currencies like the euro and sterling, suggesting they remain convinced the greenback has more losses in store. CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) options data show USD puts have drawn strong demand, both in aggregate and against most major currencies. In May, USD puts made up just over 59% of traded FX options volume, said Chris Povey, head of FX options at CME Group. Demand for dollar puts over calls was especially apparent in the yen and the Australian dollar, Povey said, making up more than 65% of the options volume in those pairs. Options data hint at expectations that the pace of decline in the dollar from here may be more measured relative to the sharp drop seen since the start of the year. The dollar is down about 9% against the euro, and the yen, respectively, for the year. The euro was last at $1.1443, and the dollar was trading at 142.70 yen. "Traders think spot market momentum will fade in the short term, but are betting on a gradual narrowing in relative growth differentials between the advanced economies by the autumn, along with a slow-motion diversification push over the next year, with major investors reallocating resources toward structurally undervalued markets outside the United States," Corpay’s Schamotta said. CONTRARIANS BEWARE Investor confidence in the U.S. economy outperforming the rest of the world has taken a knock in recent months. Worries about rising U.S. debt and a widening budget deficit have also come to the fore, bolstering investors’ desire to lighten up on U.S. assets. "I don’t think we have the conviction to fight this consensus," Jayati Bharadwaj, a global FX strategist at TD Securities. "The new announcements that we have seen since the start of the year ... after a long time there are fundamental reasons to be bearish on the dollar," she said. With trade policy in flux, the dollar could well experience modest relief rallies. It also has the great advantage of being the No. 1 central bank reserve currency, backed by the world’s safest and most liquid government debt market, with higher interest rates than rival developed-economy currencies. But on balance, the path of least resistance for the dollar is lower, strategists and investors said. "We’ve seen a significant amount of buying of dollar puts coming from a number of different types of clients," said an FX options trader at a large U.S. bank, who did not want to be named because of the private nature of these trades. "We still want to have exposure to dollar weakness, because that’s the trade that when you add up all the things that are going on in the world probably makes the most sense," the trader said.

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Dollar Weaker as Traders Mull Moody’s US Downgrade: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg.com Dollar Weaker as Traders Mull Moody’s US Downgrade: Markets Wrap  Bloomberg.com

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