Good morning.

A look at the move in West Texas Intermediate & Brent Crude compared to the Russian invasion of Ukraine from day zero to the present.

We’ve indexed it so we can track it through the duration of the war which appears to be edging towards escalation. #Econ #EconSky

Slovenia recently became the first EU economy to place limits on fuel purchases due to the oil shock. Based on IEA estimates the Slovak Republic has 163 days of supply to cover net imports. #Econ #EconSky

Those mitigation steps will get far more intrusive and seek to ration energy as opposed to a price driven allocation of critical resources.

Its Asia now. Soon we will begin talking about Europe. #Econ #EconSky

There are two solutions to inflation: supply and time.

Unfortunately, time is short as key global economies will soon run short of supply to cover energy imports. #Econ #EconSky

US financial markets are pricing in a longer duration and destination of the war. One can see the increase in the MOVE bond volatility index. #Econ #EconSky

Market Minute: Asian economies at risk as oil rationing begins Rationing will be the baseline method of energy resource allocation across the dynamic Asian economies.

While I am no supporter of price controls one must acknowledge the growing severity of the current crisis abroad and begin to consider the implications at home should the price of oil move higher in coming days & weeks. #Econ #EconSky

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Market Minute: Asian economies at risk as oil rationing begins Rationing will be the baseline method of energy resource allocation across the dynamic Asian economies.

I can remember gasoline being available based on the last number of an autos license plate in the California of my adolescence. #Econ #EconSky

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

I think the old #econ lesson "Should #TigerWoods mow his own lawn" needs a refresh

Get Your Dunkin' Friday I've had one of those mornings where I can't seem to wake up. Not sure why. Maybe it's war exhaustion? It seems that's what Trump is suffer...

Get Your Dunkin' Friday - Iran War, Dept of Education, Anti-Vax = Pro-Death, TSA Funding, Calculated Risk, Kash Patel Hacked, and Climate Change Crisis. frankchowrules.blogspot.com/2026/03/get-... #climate #iran #war #education #vaccines #health #tsa #econ #fbi #arctic

"If you were worried a day, a week, or a month ago, you should be more worried today." #WAKEUPAMERICA #Money #Dinero #StockMarket #Ecomony #Econ #Migente #Noticias #CallYourReps #WriteYourReps #FEARFRIDAY
Reposting from @justinwolfers.bsky.social

Good morning.

Bond investors are pricing in a longer conflict & higher inflation.

A look at the US 10 year which will test 4.5% shortly & the one year inflation breakeven which is back at 5.2%.

Next week we get our first monthly US employment report since the start of the war. #Econ #EconSky

It’s why despite the war, energy shock and policy unpredictability capital will seek to exposure to the American economy. #Econ #EconSky

If this proves true it’s a big benefit to consumers, producers, business & the economy.

Jeavons paradox at work here in my estimation resulting in improved efficiency via technology bolstering demand.
#Econ #EconSky

yoda from star wars is smoking a cigarette and says `` teach you i will '' ALT: yoda from star wars is smoking a cigarette and says `` teach you i will ''

Friends, please stay focused. Time is precious. GROW #BLUETEAMS #TALKMONEY #ECON #JOBS #DUEPROCESS #MONEY #Corruption #Injustice #Housing #PeopleRights etc.

“Nothing in the universe can stop you from letting go and starting over.”

―Guy Finley
The Secret of Letting Go. 2007. Llewellyn Publications

Market Minute: The coming travel slump As the war in Iran approaches its fifth week, the shock to transportation and travel costs from surging jet fuel prices is coming into view.

Moreover get ready for sky-high fuel surcharges to be attached to all things transport.

That 8% surcharge attached to shipping by the USPS yesterday is a sign of things to come. #Econ #EconSky

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Market Minute: The coming travel slump As the war in Iran approaches its fifth week, the shock to transportation and travel costs from surging jet fuel prices is coming into view.

With triple digit increases in jet fuel prices this year part of those costs are being passed along downstream.

Business & household travel costs are going to soar in the near term pushing already sticky service sector inflation higher. #Econ #EconSky

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

A good slower growth and sticky inflation morning to everyone.

The @OECD out this morning with its forecast capturing the stagflation that’s going to be the baseline for 2026 & 2027 across the G-7 and global economies. #Econ #EconSky

Now is the time to submit your paper to the Atlantic Economic Journal!
Submit your paper now: iaes.org/publications/atlantic-ec...

#Econ #Academic #Research #Publishing

Yikes! This is not good. #Migente #Noticias #WhatYouNeedToKnow #Democracy #CivilRights #Depression #Economy #Econ #Money #GlobalNews #StockMarket #Markets
Reposting from @ftedit.ft.com

Market Minute: The Treasury market is signaling stress The threat of increased inflation and increased public debt has sent 2-year bond yields above 4.0% this week, while pushing 10-year yields above 4.4%.

Good morning. During a crisis it’s best to focus on the price signal.

A look at the Treasury market implies growing stress.

Bond market volatility often spills over into credit, currency & equity markets. #Econ #EconSky

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

For those that do not follow such data it implies that global investors expect inflation over the next year to increase by 5.14% which points to risk of stagflation ahead. #Econ #EconSky

Five day journey of the one-year US inflation breakeven due to headlines, inflation risk, economic, financial and strategic policy. Modest move today on headlines that the 82nd Airborne is getting ready to ship out to the Middle East.
#Econ #EconSky

Note my estimation of the fitted yield on the US 10 year is now 4.45%. That implies yields need to rise further along the long end of the curve. #Econ #EconSky

US term risk premium rising on inflation risk & an unsustainable fiscal path made worse by what is going to be an increase in expenditures caused by the war.

It’s rational for investors to extract a higher premium when purchasing US issued paper. #Econ #EconSky

Smells like stagflation: Global PMI’s in March that captured a synchronized energy shock caused by the war across the international economy in both manufacturing and services.

In less than two weeks we get the first US monthly employment report that will be impacted by that shock. #Econ #EconSky

Original post on social.ben.ie

This sucks but is unsurprising given how incredibly expensive and difficult it has gotten to just Be A Person In The World at the moment, not least in the US, which, despite being the source of so much misery and strife in the world at the moment, is also not shy about shredding its own citizens […]

A deal with Iran wouldn’t lower your gas prices anytime soon | CNN Business President Donald Trump made an ALL-CAPS reversal on Iran strikes Monday morning. That sent oil prices plunging.

Don’t expect an imminent decline in energy, oil & gasoline prices back to pre-war levels if a deal with Iran can be reached. My thoughts via ⁦‪@CNN‬⁩ #Econ #EconSky

www.cnn.com/2026/03/24/b...

Market Minute: Why gas tax holidays and export bans don’t work A gas tax holiday and an export ban on U.S. crude are politically appealing, but in the end they only put upward pressure on prices.

Here in LA where one can observe a regular unleaded gasoline price of $5.90, a premium price of $6.27 & diesel of $6.99 such ideas are not going to be well received but are necessary to communicate. #Econ #Econ

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Market Minute: Why gas tax holidays and export bans don’t work A gas tax holiday and an export ban on U.S. crude are politically appealing, but in the end they only put upward pressure on prices.

Good morning from Los Angeles.

My note on why gasoline subsidies to ease consumer pain & energy export bans that give the impression of doing something are counterproductive. #Econ #EconSky

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Our economic ledgers capture only a fraction of what matters.

By collapsing value into money, we compress a multidimensional world into a single number. That’s not simplification — it’s massive information loss.

#Econ #SystemsThinking #Complexity

@rutgerbregman.com @jasonhickel.bsky.social