Note the market is pricing in a 5.2% inflation rate using one year breakevens as my metric over the next year even as yields modestly decline today while a relief rally in equities is underway. #Econ #EconSky
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Hashtag
#ECON
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In my estimation equities will continue to trade off yields going forward until we get clarity on the direction & duration of the war. #Econ #EconSky
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The 4-6 week excursion looks more like 4-6 months at a minimum. It’s rational that global bond investors are pricing in risk of an economic slowdown.
Tension between higher inflation & higher yields vs slower growth, disinflation & lower yields has begun. #Econ #EconSky
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The time of complacency across financial markets has come to an end.
Our @RSMUSLLP Financial Conditions Index implies a modest drag on growth as oil prices overnight surged into triple digit terrain in both Brent Crude & WTI. #Econ #EconSky
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
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Good morning.
A look at the move in West Texas Intermediate & Brent Crude compared to the Russian invasion of Ukraine from day zero to the present.
We’ve indexed it so we can track it through the duration of the war which appears to be edging towards escalation. #Econ #EconSky
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Slovenia recently became the first EU economy to place limits on fuel purchases due to the oil shock. Based on IEA estimates the Slovak Republic has 163 days of supply to cover net imports. #Econ #EconSky
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Those mitigation steps will get far more intrusive and seek to ration energy as opposed to a price driven allocation of critical resources.
Its Asia now. Soon we will begin talking about Europe. #Econ #EconSky
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There are two solutions to inflation: supply and time.
Unfortunately, time is short as key global economies will soon run short of supply to cover energy imports. #Econ #EconSky
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US financial markets are pricing in a longer duration and destination of the war. One can see the increase in the MOVE bond volatility index. #Econ #EconSky
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While I am no supporter of price controls one must acknowledge the growing severity of the current crisis abroad and begin to consider the implications at home should the price of oil move higher in coming days & weeks. #Econ #EconSky
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
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I can remember gasoline being available based on the last number of an autos license plate in the California of my adolescence. #Econ #EconSky
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
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I think the old #econ lesson "Should #TigerWoods mow his own lawn" needs a refresh
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Get Your Dunkin' Friday - Iran War, Dept of Education, Anti-Vax = Pro-Death, TSA Funding, Calculated Risk, Kash Patel Hacked, and Climate Change Crisis. frankchowrules.blogspot.com/2026/03/get-... #climate #iran #war #education #vaccines #health #tsa #econ #fbi #arctic
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"If you were worried a day, a week, or a month ago, you should be more worried today." #WAKEUPAMERICA #Money #Dinero #StockMarket #Ecomony #Econ #Migente #Noticias #CallYourReps #WriteYourReps #FEARFRIDAY
Reposting from @justinwolfers.bsky.social
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Good morning.
Bond investors are pricing in a longer conflict & higher inflation.
A look at the US 10 year which will test 4.5% shortly & the one year inflation breakeven which is back at 5.2%.
Next week we get our first monthly US employment report since the start of the war. #Econ #EconSky
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It’s why despite the war, energy shock and policy unpredictability capital will seek to exposure to the American economy. #Econ #EconSky
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If this proves true it’s a big benefit to consumers, producers, business & the economy.
Jeavons paradox at work here in my estimation resulting in improved efficiency via technology bolstering demand.
#Econ #EconSky
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Friends, please stay focused. Time is precious. GROW #BLUETEAMS #TALKMONEY #ECON #JOBS #DUEPROCESS #MONEY #Corruption #Injustice #Housing #PeopleRights etc.
“Nothing in the universe can stop you from letting go and starting over.”
―Guy Finley
The Secret of Letting Go. 2007. Llewellyn Publications
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Moreover get ready for sky-high fuel surcharges to be attached to all things transport.
That 8% surcharge attached to shipping by the USPS yesterday is a sign of things to come. #Econ #EconSky
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
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With triple digit increases in jet fuel prices this year part of those costs are being passed along downstream.
Business & household travel costs are going to soar in the near term pushing already sticky service sector inflation higher. #Econ #EconSky
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
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A good slower growth and sticky inflation morning to everyone.
The @OECD out this morning with its forecast capturing the stagflation that’s going to be the baseline for 2026 & 2027 across the G-7 and global economies. #Econ #EconSky
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Now is the time to submit your paper to the Atlantic Economic Journal!
Submit your paper now: iaes.org/publications/atlantic-ec...
#Econ #Academic #Research #Publishing
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Yikes! This is not good. #Migente #Noticias #WhatYouNeedToKnow #Democracy #CivilRights #Depression #Economy #Econ #Money #GlobalNews #StockMarket #Markets
Reposting from @ftedit.ft.com
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Good morning. During a crisis it’s best to focus on the price signal.
A look at the Treasury market implies growing stress.
Bond market volatility often spills over into credit, currency & equity markets. #Econ #EconSky
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
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For those that do not follow such data it implies that global investors expect inflation over the next year to increase by 5.14% which points to risk of stagflation ahead. #Econ #EconSky
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Five day journey of the one-year US inflation breakeven due to headlines, inflation risk, economic, financial and strategic policy. Modest move today on headlines that the 82nd Airborne is getting ready to ship out to the Middle East.
#Econ #EconSky
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Note my estimation of the fitted yield on the US 10 year is now 4.45%. That implies yields need to rise further along the long end of the curve. #Econ #EconSky
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US term risk premium rising on inflation risk & an unsustainable fiscal path made worse by what is going to be an increase in expenditures caused by the war.
It’s rational for investors to extract a higher premium when purchasing US issued paper. #Econ #EconSky
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Smells like stagflation: Global PMI’s in March that captured a synchronized energy shock caused by the war across the international economy in both manufacturing and services.
In less than two weeks we get the first US monthly employment report that will be impacted by that shock. #Econ #EconSky
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This sucks but is unsurprising given how incredibly expensive and difficult it has gotten to just Be A Person In The World at the moment, not least in the US, which, despite being the source of so much misery and strife in the world at the moment, is also not shy about shredding its own citizens […]
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