Episode 117 - NY Fed Chief Says Tariffs HURT American Businesses & Consumers! #federalreserve #nyfed #tariffs

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US consumers more worried about job market in December, New York Fed report says Americans grew more worried about the job market in December even as anxieties over personal finances faded, while near-term inflation expectations increased, a report from the New York Federal Reserv...

Respondents said "the prospect of finding a job if unemployed was the worst since the report began in 2013."

@reuters.com #NYFed
www.reuters.com/business/us-...

He is bankrupting our country....mark my word. #nyfed had a pop up meeting to discuss lack of real funds to support the economy....

* Consumer Delinquencies Climb as More Student Debt Goes Unpaid

@bloomberg.com #NYFed

“.. the number of accounts shifting into serious delinquency—more than 90 days past due—ticked up to 5.33% .. with pretty much all types of debt showing a rise last quarter ..”

@barrons.com #NYFed
www.barrons.com/articles/fed...

NY Fed: AI not affecting job market much so far.

Salesforce CEO: confirms 4,000 layoffs 'because I need less heads' with Al

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#Needlessheads

NY Fed survey finds easier access to auto loans, mortgage refinancing By Michael S. Derby (Reuters) -U.S. households fared far better when applying for credit for mortgage refinancing or auto loans in June, new figures on credit access from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York show. The bank said Monday that rejected applications for mortgage refinancing dropped to 15% in June, versus 42% in February, which was the worst rejection-rate month in data that goes back to the fall of 2013. The rejection rate for auto loans also retreated, though less dramatically, to 7% in June from February’s 14%. Overall credit applications and rejection rates during the last year largely remained steady, the bank said. The findings come from the bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, which is most closely watched for its monthly readings on inflation expectations and the consumer mood. The bank said prospective borrowers who refrained from seeking credit as they expected their application to be rejected - so-called discouraged borrowers - stood at 7.2% of those surveyed in June, from 8.5% in February. Despite the retreat, the finding for last month came in above June 2024’s 5.5%. Other information from the bank has shown some rising stress for overall consumer-debt levels, although overall, current conditions are pretty healthy. The auto and housing markets have faced high borrowing costs as the Federal Reserve has kept its rate target relatively high to help curb inflation. With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

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NY Fed finds moderating inflation expectations in May (Reuters) -Americans’ anxiety about the future path of inflation eased in May, as they also grew more upbeat about the state of their personal finances, a report released on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. The bank reported in its Survey of Consumer Expectations for May that the outlook for inflation across all the horizons it measures retreated. A year from now, survey respondents see inflation at 3.2% versus 3.6% in April, while three years from now it’s seen at 3% versus 3.2%. Five years from now, inflation is projected at 2.6% from the prior month’s 2.7%. The report found that survey respondents are expecting moderating price gains for gas, rent, medical care and college, while food costs a year from now are seen rising at a 5.5% rate, the highest mark since October 2023. Meanwhile, in May the year- ahead expected rise in house prices stood at 3%, down from April’s 3.3%. The moderation in the outlook for inflation took place against a background of high uncertainty over the future of price pressures. Huge and ever-shifting tax hikes on imports imposed by the Trump administration are broadly expected by economists and policymakers to push up inflation, while depressing hiring and growth. The major question is whether the gain is a one-off or the makings of something more persistent. There’s been little clarity on how much those tariffs will impact the economy, especially as President Donald Trump raises and lowers his import levies unpredictably. The survey period for the New York Fed report overlapped some of the biggest shifts on tariffs, and the moderation in May’s readings will likely bolster officials’ confidence that inflation is not fixing for an extended breakout to higher levels. The Fed is set to meet to deliberate on monetary policy on June 17-18 in a gathering that will almost certainly see the central bank leave its interest rate range steady at between 4.25% and 4.5%. Inflation remains above the 2% target and is not expected to moderate to desired levels any time soon, in an otherwise healthy economy. The New York Fed report also found that expectations of moderating future inflation gains came as households also upgraded their views on their incomes, earnings, hiring prospects and finances. The survey found “slightly” improved views on households’ views of their current financial situation in May, as respondents said access to credit improved relative to last year, while expectations of missing a debt payment declined.

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(via Kevin Gordon) #NYFed

NY Fed flags $1.06 trillion unrealized loss on bond holdings in 2024 NEW YORK -The Federal Reserve saw $1 trillion in unrealized losses on its holdings last year, according to a report released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The bank said in its annual report for the System Open Market Account, the Fed’s massive holdings of cash and securities, that the $1.06 trillion unrealized loss in 2024 was “modestly higher” than the $948.4 billion paper loss seen in 2023. The state of unrealized losses last year was due to “higher market interest rates across the yield curve” while partially offset by reduced Fed holdings of bonds. The Fed noted unrealized losses capture the difference between the book value of securities it owns versus the current market price. These paper losses do not affect monetary policy operations and are not an issue of note given that the Fed holds its bonds to maturity. The report added the unrealized loss on Fed holdings will likely prevail for years to come. The Fed’s balance sheet in recent years has undergone massive expansion, more than doubling to a peak of $9 trillion by 2022 as the Fed bought Treasury and mortgage bonds to stabilize markets and add stimulus during the pandemic. It has been shrinking its holdings for some time, with the overall size of its balance sheet now at $6.7 trillion. The Fed’s large holdings are expected to stabilize in January 2026 at $6.2 trillion, the Fed report noted, based on the current view of market participants.

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NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index loses ground in May By Michael S. Derby NEW YORK (Reuters) -Business activity continued to soften in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s district during May, according to its latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey, released Thursday. The general business conditions index stood at -9.2 in May from April’s -8.1, the third straight month of declining activity, the report said. The firms remained "pessimistic" about the outlook, the regional Fed bank also said in its report. The report found improvement in new orders and shipping and lost ground on hiring in May, with mixed findings on the inflation front. The regional Fed bank noted that the prices paid index, at 59.0 from April’s 50.8%, was the highest in more than two years.

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NY Fed’s Perli says regular morning Standing Repo Facility operations coming By Michael S. Derby NEW YORK (Reuters) -An official responsible for implementing Federal Reserve monetary policy said on Friday markets navigated last month’s heavy market stress well, as the central bank moves toward enhancing a key liquidity tool. “Although liquidity in Treasury cash markets became strained in early April, those markets continued to function, in part because of the resilience of funding liquidity in the Treasury repo market,” said Roberto Perli, the manager of the Fed’s System Open Market Account, in the text of a speech prepared for delivery before a conference held by the central bank in Washington. While markets navigated well this period of stress that followed the Trump administration’s announcement of massive trade tariffs on most of the world’s nations, Perli said the experience reaffirmed the need for the central bank to further explore how it can provide fast liquidity to markets. To that end, in response to feedback from the financial community, Perli said that Standing Repo Facility, or SRF (NSE:SRFL), operations will be made available in the morning as well as the afternoon in the “not-too-distant future.” He noted, “These early-settlement auctions, combined with the current afternoon auctions, will enhance the effectiveness of the SRF as a tool for monetary policy implementation and market functioning.” The SRF allows eligible firms to quickly convert Treasury securities into cash at the Fed and is designed to help manage market liquidity needs. It’s been largely dormant since being launched outside of one pocket of usage last year and was not tapped in any size during the market volatility early last month. The Fed has already offered early day SRF operations around quarter-ends and making that a regular option lines up with market expectations. Despite last month’s market tumult the Fed did not intervene to support markets. Last month Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the orderly nature of the trading even with the volatility meant there was no need for intervention, and he said it would be a high bar for the central bank to step in to help markets. Should you invest $2,000 in SRFL right now? ProPicks AI are 6 model portfolios created by Investing.com which identify the best stocks for investors to buy now. The stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Is SRFL one of them?

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NY Fed survey finds deteriorating views on household financial situation By Michael S. Derby NEW YORK (Reuters) -Americans’ views on their current and future financial situations, as well as their expectations for future earnings and income, soured in April, amid mixed views on the outlook for inflation, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Thursday. In its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, the bank found that last month, as President Donald Trump initiated a dramatic trade war against the rest of the world, households’ perceptions of their current and future financial situations “deteriorated sharply.” Survey respondents also projected slower gains in income and earnings in April relative to March, and for unemployment to rise and for it to be harder to find a job. Spending expectations, however, rose in April versus March. On the inflation front, it was a mixed bag. Survey respondents projected year-ahead inflation at 3.6%, unchanged from March, while the three-year-ahead expectation rose to the highest level since July 2022 at 3.2%, from March’s 3%. Five years from now, survey respondents see inflation at 2.7% versus March’s 2.9%. The report found the public expecting accelerating price pressures for rent, gasoline and college costs, as well as a projected year-ahead rise in home prices of 3.3%, from March’s 3%. The release of the New York Fed report comes after the Fed decided on Wednesday to hold its short-term interest rate target steady amid a time of high uncertainty and rising economic risks. While the Fed views the current state of the economy as solid, the trade tariff regime now being pursued by the Trump administration has unsettled the outlook, with many economists expecting it to lead to higher inflation and unemployment, while slowing growth from where it otherwise would have been. "Despite heightened uncertainty, the economy is still in a solid position,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference following the Fed policy gathering. But he also acknowledged that while the economy is “healthy,” it is one that’s “shrouded in some very downbeat sentiment on the part of people and businesses.” Powell also offered a note of caution on data detailing consumer mood, saying “the link between sentiment data and consumer spending has been weak.” The state of inflation expectations data has loomed large in Fed calculations because officials broadly agree that where the public projects price pressures to go has a strong impact on where they are now. New York Fed data has not shown the same rise in inflation expectations evidenced by other surveys like those from the University of Michigan. Over recent weeks numerous Fed officials have said it’s critical to keep expectations stable amid the current period of uncertainty and inflation risks driven by Trump’s policy agenda.

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NY Fed appoints Anna Nordstrom as Markets Group chief Blog Mobile Portfolio Widgets About Us Advertise Help & Support Authors Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed. Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website. Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

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NY Fed finds Americans trimming back wage expectations for new jobs By Michael S. Derby NEW YORK (Reuters) -Americans’ view on labor markets soured in March as respondents to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey sharply trimmed back the payrate they said would get them to take a new job. The bank reported as part of its Survey of Consumer Expectations that the so-called reservation wage for a new job fell to $74,236 last month, versus the series high of $82,135 seen in November data. The survey found the lowered wage expectation was driven by men and workers over the age of 45. The willingness of workers to accept lower pay for a job comes amid a notable fraying in consumer attitudes seen in a number of surveys done since the start of the Trump administration. Consumers have reported rising anxiety about the outlook and near-term inflation as President Donald Trump has launched a global trade war while at the same time working to eviscerate the federal government. A number of economists now believe the probability is strong that a recession will strike the economy at some point, while Fed officials have said they expect to see inflation and unemployment rise and growth slow markedly in the wake of the president’s actions. The New York Fed survey found respondents reporting declining satisfaction with job pay, benefits and promotion opportunities. The bank noted contentment with wage compensation was at its lowest point since November 2021. In March, households also trimmed versus November what they saw as the likelihood they’d get at least one job offer over the next four months. Respondents also pulled back on expectations they’d have to work in their older years.

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Americans lower salary expectations for new jobs, NY Fed survey reveals hereremove ads Latest comments Install Our AppScan QR code to install app Google Play App Store Blog Mobile Portfolio Widgets About Us Advertise Help & Support Authors Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed. Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website. Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

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NY Fed: March near term inflation expects jump amid souring sentiment levels By Michael S. Derby (Reuters) - Americans’ expectations for near-term inflation hit the highest level since the fall of 2023 in March, amid a souring in the public’s assessment of their personal finances and hiring prospects, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Monday. The bank said that in its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, respondents see inflation a year from now at 3.6%, up from 3.1% in February, matching the same level last seen in October 2023. The rise came as households predicted accelerating inflation for food and rent, but smaller gains for gasoline and home prices. The sharp increase in near-term expectations came as the projected level of inflation three years from now held steady at 3%, while the forecast for inflation in five years tipped down to 2.9% in March from 3% the prior month. The mixed outlook for inflation came in a report that found a broad decline in survey respondents’ views on where the economy is heading. Households in March said they see slower future income and earnings gains, while expectations that unemployment will rise hit its highest level since April 2020. The New York Fed consumer expectations data lands in a climate where other indicators are pointing to a deteriorating economic situation, as President Donald Trump pursues an aggressive trade war heavily reliant on the highest levels of tariffs in decades. Economists and the public believe these import taxes will lead to increases in inflation pressures, although there’s great uncertainty about how long the boost in price pressures will last. The New York Fed data pointing to confidence that longer-term inflation pressures will remain in check stands at odds with other closely watched surveys like that of the University of Michigan, which found that in April the expected level of inflation five years from now was at its highest since June 1991. With economic conditions highly unsettled and current levels of inflation already above the Fed’s 2% target, Fed officials have over recent days flagged the particular importance of keeping longer-run expectations stable, noting shorter-run projections are generally more volatile and reactive to fast- moving factors. “Despite the recent rise in short-term inflation expectations, longer-term expectations have remained well anchored,” New York Fed President John Williams said on Friday, adding “it is critically important” to maintain that situation. Speaking with reporters on Thursday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said “if you start to see that people fundamentally don’t think that over the long run we’re getting back to 2%, that’s a problem.” The Fed’s policy outlook is particularly complicated at the moment as it faces both rising inflation pressures and the strong likelihood of weaker growth. Thus far central bankers are taking a wait-and-see approach to their next interest rate move, but some analysts see the chance more bad news on longer-run inflation expectations could tip the scale in a hawkish direction. “Fed speakers have stepped up the message that the focus now is on maintaining stable inflation expectations, and the underlying message is that effort could require rate hikes,” said SGH Macro (BCBA:BMAm) Advisors. Households said the probability that stocks will rise ebbed to its lowest level since June 2022.

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NY Fed details likely looming rise in troubled student loan borrowing NEW YORK (Reuters) - The end of various pandemic-era student loan support programs likely portends a rise in credit issues for borrowers, although it will take time to understand the full extent of the problem, New York Federal Reserve researchers said on Wednesday. “We expect to see more than nine million student loan borrowers face substantial declines in credit standing over the first quarter of 2025,” the regional Fed bank said in a blog posting. New York Fed economists acknowledged there’s lots of uncertainty over how this increased trouble in the student lending sector will play out, but noted that those with higher levels of credit scores appear to have the most room to lose. "If prime and super-prime borrowers fell behind on student loan payments, the aggregate drop in credit standing among student loan borrowers could be much larger,” they wrote, adding “this would result in reduced credit limits, higher interest rates for new loans, and overall lower credit access.” Other data from the New York Fed as well as other sources have pointed to increased fraying in the broader state of credit as the economy descends into a period of high uncertainty due to the Trump administration’s sweeping policy changes. Student loan borrowers have played a prominent role in credit issues over recent years. Government support efforts during and after the most acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic granted student loan holders payment forbearances, and the Biden administration tried to forgive many types of loans, although much of that effort was stymied in the courts. Student loan borrowing terms have largely returned to where they were before the pandemic and economists and others are trying to see how much stress government support efforts papered over. LASTING DAMAGE The New York Fed report noted that before pandemic forbearance programs an in-house estimate of the effective delinquency rate for student loans hit a high of 14.8% in the second quarter of 2018 and was around 14% through much of 2019. Once loan payments were required again, the New York Fed’s "shadow" estimate of the delinquency rate stood at 15.6% during the fourth quarter, with 9.7 million borrowers holding $250 billion in troubled debt. A report in February from the New York Fed said in the fourth quarter total outstanding student loan debt totaled $1.62 trillion, against $18.04 trillion in total household borrowing for the period. Given how the data is reported and processed, student loan delinquency rates are only just starting to make their way into credit reports. The New York Fed said “it is reasonable to expect student loan delinquency to surpass pre-pandemic levels when new delinquencies hit credit reports.” While some troubled borrowers may be able to get back on track quickly, the report said the damage will nevertheless last for some time and “will remain on their credit reports for seven years.” Which stock should you buy in your very next trade? AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes 6 winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. Which stock will be the next to soar?

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WEEKEND BUSINESS DIGEST2
1/2 #Bluesky #China #Crypto #EnrichedUranium #Fed #Japan #JohnWilliams #Medicaid #Medicare #MedicareAdvantage #Medigap #NYFed #PoliticalBetting #Russia #Slupid #Uranium...

The @AtlantaFed GDP Now number is even worse than the #NYFed: Atlanta sees -34.9% for Q2

I think that's enough for today.

#NYFed Empire #manufacturing a disappointing 6.56 after 20.21. Orders, shipments, workweek up at much slower pace. #economy