The world economy is on a #recessionary trajectory,
Global growth is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025, falling below the 2.5% threshold that is often associated with a global recessionary phase. This marks a deceleration compared to the average annual growth rates.

unctad.org/publication/...

#Pictet Research expects a further decline in valuations as the overall market trades at 20x, compared with 16.5x, a level we expect a multiple to be under #recessionary condition, chart @PictetAM

CEOs are in distress and consumers fear job losses amid ‘stagflation shock,’ economist warns New research from Apollo Global Management outlines the tariff impact on U.S. businesses and consumers. Signs are pointing toward recession by summer.

#apolloreport #us #recession #usa #economy #trade #disruptions #trump #tariffs #CEO #confidence #consumer #sentiment #slowdown #jobs #imports #tariff #retail #tax #business #taxes #spending #trumpflation #inflation #stagflation #recessionary #stagflationary #finance

fortune.com/article/stag...

Consensus #economic forecasts for the US shows slower but not #recessionary expectations.

The bond market is fully front running #Fed guidance - such pricing of the speed and terminal level of rates suggests a #recessionary scenario—one that is far too aggressive given the strength of the US economy, chart Lisa Shallet @MorganStanley

3 CIBC: The low-rise market appears to be in reasonable shape with limited inventories & improved sentiment, given the recent trajectory of #mortgagerates. That’s not the case in the #condomarket, which is clearly in #recessionary territory with conditions deteriorating to levels not seen in decade

#Consumer #Sentiment weakened last month with the prior months revised sharply lower. The spread between current and expected conditions remains mired in #recessionary levels.

Higher rate regime, which we expect will increase small businesses’ interest burden and weigh on housing turnover, though we continue to think that higher rates will be a manageable headwind to growth, not a #recessionary shock, chart @GoldmanSachs