2 Bloomberg: It’s all driven by fears of a #stagflationary shock that could develop if higher #oil #prices ignite #inflation and undercut #economicgrowth.
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#markets

Investors are expecting Donald Trump to back down in the war with Iran – but what if he doesn’t? Global markets have become inured to the US president’s posturing over the past year, but economists warn they may be ‘a little bit complacent’ in anticipating a short conflict in the Middle East

www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Oil price shock is #stagflationary, as it pushes #inflation higher putting central bankers in a bind: hike #rates to contain inflation, or support the economy?

79s saw doubling in oil price & drove inflation & unemployment into double digits in Oz #auspol

#doodle
#tariffs and mass #deportations are both #stagflationary.

Kilowatt Madness Trump’s electricity crisis — and ours

“It’s becoming increasingly clear that there’s a third major #stagflationary force coming into play: Soaring #electricity #prices, which will also hurt #growth while increasing #inflation.” paulkrugman.substack.com/p/kilowatt-m...

… particularly in the sectors where unauthorized #immigrants work—namely construction, #agriculture, and #leisure & #hospitality. In short, deportations are a #stagflationary impulse to the economy, resulting in lower #employment growth and higher #wage inflation.

A chart indicating the levels of various forms of immigration detention and enforcement in the US from January 2019 to April 2025.

“ #deportations are a #stagflationary impulse to the #economy, resulting in lower #employment growth and higher #wage #inflation.” - Torsten Slok, chief economist Apollo Global Management

#oil shocks are often considered #stagflationary - higher #oil prices weigh on economic activity by slowing consumption while also stoking #inflation. In fact, every $10 increase in the price of WTI adds ~0.3% to CPI inflation - chart #JPMorganAM

For several CBs, including those of the US and countries that #retaliate to US #tariffs, these developments are expected to constitute a #stagflationary shock, chart #BIS_org www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...

How Trump could make Americans permanently poorer The most surprising consequence of Trump’s trade war.

#stagflationary #crisis #stagflation #inflation #trumpflation #trump #tariffs #protectionist #consumer #tax #policies #global #trade #uspol #political #currency #banking #US #dollar #usdollar #1970s #uncertainty #shock #recession #trade #tradewar #retail #politics

www.vox.com/politics/411...

#doodle #weekend
#tariffs - Govt #spending cuts - #massdeportations - #uncertainty - #DOGE
Is US economy facing a #stagflationary shock?
How will the #Fed navigate this tricky environment?

CEOs are in distress and consumers fear job losses amid ‘stagflation shock,’ economist warns New research from Apollo Global Management outlines the tariff impact on U.S. businesses and consumers. Signs are pointing toward recession by summer.

#apolloreport #us #recession #usa #economy #trade #disruptions #trump #tariffs #CEO #confidence #consumer #sentiment #slowdown #jobs #imports #tariff #retail #tax #business #taxes #spending #trumpflation #inflation #stagflation #recessionary #stagflationary #finance

fortune.com/article/stag...

Opinion | At the rate Trump’s going, a global recession will be hard to sidestep The fracturing of global trade, coupled with the US president’s attacks on the Federal Reserve, doesn’t bode well for the world.

#stagflationary #crisis #stagflation #inflation #trumpflation #trump #tariffs #protectionist #consumer #tax #policies #global #trade #networks #reshoring #political #interference #banking #US #dolla #1970s #uncertainty #shock #recession #1930s #trade #tradewar #retail

www.scmp.com/opinion/worl...

Experts see higher stagflation risks. Here's what it means for your money Stagflation — a mix of slow economic growth, high inflation and high unemployment — which hit the U.S. in the 1970s, could make a comeback, economists say.

#us #economist #economy #stagflation #recession #inflation #trumpflation #trump #tariffs #usa #consumer #retail #spending #tax #business #trade #taxes #stagflationary #tariffs #imports #exports #labor #markets #finance #stocks #economic #groceries #grocery #jobs #layoff

www.cnbc.com/2025/04/19/e...

Why Trump's Attacks on the Fed Are Bad News for the Economy When monetary policy becomes political, everyone loses.

#us #fed #federalreserve #powell #jeromepowell #economist #economy #stagflation #recession #inflation #trumpflation #trump #tariffs #usa #consumer #retail #spending #tax #business #trade #taxes #stagflationary #tariffs #imports #exports #labor #markets #finance #stocks

www.inc.com/the-conversa...

This top U.S. economist puts the chance of a ‘stagflationary’ recession at 65% A leading economist contends a recession is now more likely than not due to the Trump administration’s trade wars, and that the U.S. could suffer the biggest “stagflationary” shock in decades.

#adamposen #posen #us #economist #economy #stagflation #recession #inflation #trumpflation #trump #tariffs #usa #consumer #retail #spending #tax #business #trade #taxes #stagflationary #tariffs #imports #exports #labor #markets #tradewars #global #finance #money

www.marketwatch.com/story/this-t...

The short-term economic impacts of #tariffs tend to be #stagflationary. Some of the one-time increase in #tariffs may hit US businesses’ bottom line, while some may be passed on to the end consumer, raising prices, chart @JPMorganAM

The s-word rippling through Wall Street and Main Street Economic growth has flatlined so far this year. Inflation has picked up. And consumers expect both to get worse in the months ahead.

The s-word rippling through Wall Street and Main Street axios.com/2025/03/30/s...

Hey #MAGA - this what you voted for?
The backward-looking data lately has been distinctly #stagflationary

Let's hope we all survive the #felon

Short-term economic impact of #tariffs tends to be #stagflationary: lowering growth and increasing prices, but how much growth cools or consumer prices rise depend on a variety of factors, notes @JPMorganAM