The number of #cyberattack campaigns targeted at each country attributed to #China -based hacker with suspected or confirmed state #affiliation, through 2023, chart #JPMorganAM

#profits are expected to grow 12.6% in Q1, marking the 6th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. It’s not just the analysts who are #optimistic; companies are issuing positive guidance above both 5y and 10y averages, chart #JPMorganAM

This week's chart highlights that higher #gas prices will partially offset larger tax refunds, with upper-income households faring best, chart #JPMorganAM

1y on from President Trump’s Liberation Day #tariffs, it appears that US #consumers have felt the brunt of the impact -- #evidence suggests #tariffs have increased prices and weighed on growth, chart #JPMorganAM

Markets still expect modest #steepening driven by a gradual grind higher in the long end -- #short - to intermediate bonds look particularly attractive — yields near 4% with meaningful upside if #consumption growth softens and #Fed does resume easing, chart #JPMorganAM

In private #credit, as with any type of credit, the key concerns are credit quality and the potential for #defaults – chart #JPMorganAM

#Iran proposes to charge 100 - 130 vessels per day $2 mm each, which would amount to $70 - $90 bn per year in revenues (!!) - chart #JPMorganAM

While #Gulf countries have among the highest contributions to GDP from #oil & #gas, they have made meaningful progress in recent years in diversifying their economies, chart #JPMorganAM

#climatechange
#war and #weather
#Gulf also has unique #weather attributes - the region #heats up over the next couple of months given potential #damage to equipment and troops – chart #JPMorganAM

The major maritime chockepoints for the global #oil supply, chart #JPMorganAM

Bottom Line:
US #fossil fuel independence is not as much of an economic firewall as you might think, chart #JPMorganAM

And even though the US is a net exporter of #jetfuel , US jet
fuel prices have risen by around two thirds of international increases, chart #JPMorganAM

US crude #oil, wholesale #gasoline, naphtha, shipping fuel and certain #petrochemical price increases this year are even higher than price increases in Europe and Asia, chart #JPMorganAM

Scarred by the initial impacts of the Russia- #Ukraine war in 2022, the #ECB is signalling a low tolerance for upside inflation risk and European bond markets are now pricing in roughly 75bp of rate hikes, with more extreme scenarios extending beyond 100bp, chart #JPMorganAM

This week's chart highlights a 3.7% March drop for 60/40 portfolios as stocks and #bonds fell together amid #inflation fears from the U.S./ #Iran conflict, chart #JPMorganAM

1y on from President Trump’s #LiberationDay #tariffs, it appears that US #consumers have felt the brunt of the impact. Evidence suggests #tariffs have increased prices and weighed on growth, chart #JPMorganAM

#FX: cost of US #dollar #hedging – chart #JPMorganAM

10y UST term premium: 1.7176%, chart #JPMorganAM

#inflation expectations measured by 1y inflation swaps - chart #JPMorganAM

Global financial conditions, chart #JPMorganAM

Most people associate #helium with party balloons. But the #semiconductor industry is now one of helium’s largest consumers, relying on it to cool #wafers during the etching process and to maintain the controlled environments required for advanced #lithography - chart #JPMorganAM

Overall, JPM Research still expects the #Fed to #reduce rates at least once this year, chart #JPMorganAM

This week's chart highlights that in 1Q26, #commodities led as #oil surged 75% ytd, while U.S. large caps and the #Mag7 fell sharply amid #inflation fears, chart #JPMorganAM

While markets are rightly focused on the conflict in #MiddleEast, private credit has also been grabbing headlines - much of this has been driven by neg #sentiment, with concerns around #AI -related disruption in software-heavy portfolios, chart #JPMorganAM

Last year, investors contended with every flavor of risk: #tariffs, #war, Govt shutdown and existential #AI concerns. Yet the start of this year is rivaling all of last year, condensed into one quarter, chart #JPMorganAM

There is also very little historical precedent for the #Fed to raise interest rates in the face of an #oil shock. Historically, the CB has done the opposite, chart #JPMorganAM

The paradox of expecting higher prices can inadvertently lead to a higher tolerance, and ultimately higher prices themselves. It’s a feedback loop that can quickly spiral. So far, there is no such evidence, notes #JPMorganAM

With an inflation-focused mandate and level of exposure to #energy prices, #ECB is battling a different dynamic. But when it comes to the #Fed, a sustained higher #oil price would likely lead to a prolonged hold on interest rates, though not a hike, chart #JPMorganAM

#crude #oil -- #drillers and #refiners
Altogether, the base case is that #energy companies will lock in profits rather than materially ramp up production, notes #JPMorganAM

This week's chart highlights widening stock dispersion in the S&P 500, with #energy up 33% and #software down 20%, insulating the index from #volatility, chart #JPMorganAM