![[KEY:
+ Very likely acceptable
± Very likely negotiable
±× Theoretically possible with strict negotiated conditions
× Highly unlikely]
10-Point Plan
Major Sticking Points:
🔸Control of Strait of Hormuz
🔸Withdrawal of US' regional forces
Theoretically Workable impasses:
🔸US reparations to Iran: possible if US controls reconstruction finances & processes at every step
🔸Iran's nuclear enrichment: possible only with ultra-strict limitations/monitoring/accountability; OR: nuclear energy fuel import permits (only with ultra-strict limitations/monitoring/accountability)
+1. American guarantee of nonaggression with Iran; formalized, permanent end to hostilities
×2. Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz: major sticking point
±3. Ending all fronts of regional war, including vs. Hezbollah in Lebanon: possible with sufficient assurances to Israel
×4. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all regional bases & positions: Highly unlikely.
×±5. Reparations from US to Iran for war damages: military sites/critical infrastructure/pharmaceutical & steel plants/bridges/universities/energy facilities: US unlikely to agree [theoretically workable if US controls all reconstruction finances/processes]
×±6. Iran maintains nuclear enrichment rights: US/Israel unlikely to agree [Theoretically workable with:
a) ultra-strict limitations/monitoring/accountability;
OR:
b) importation permits for uranium enriched suitable only for energy plants, & on condition of limitations/monitoring/accountability
±7. Lifting all primary sanctions on Iran
±8. Lifting all secondary sanctions on Iran
±9. Termination of all resolutions against Iran by the Board of Governors of the IAEA: workable, conditioned on ultra-strict limitations/monitoring/accountability
±10. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions against Iran: workable, conditioned on limitations/monitoring/accountability](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:sk43b5ex7tng7zoudwbkl657/bafkreicwhiciuxqkaxzmn3orh56wjiijeuasidy2q7xpddhhaxqwpb6tsm)
[KEY: + Very likely acceptable ± Very likely negotiable ±× Theoretically possible with strict negotiated conditions × Highly unlikely] 10-Point Plan Major Sticking Points: 🔸Control of Strait of Hormuz 🔸Withdrawal of US' regional forces Theoretically Workable impasses: 🔸US reparations to Iran: possible if US controls reconstruction finances & processes at every step 🔸Iran's nuclear enrichment: possible only with ultra-strict limitations/monitoring/accountability; OR: nuclear energy fuel import permits (only with ultra-strict limitations/monitoring/accountability) +1. American guarantee of nonaggression with Iran; formalized, permanent end to hostilities ×2. Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz: major sticking point ±3. Ending all fronts of regional war, including vs. Hezbollah in Lebanon: possible with sufficient assurances to Israel ×4. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all regional bases & positions: Highly unlikely. ×±5. Reparations from US to Iran for war damages: military sites/critical infrastructure/pharmaceutical & steel plants/bridges/universities/energy facilities: US unlikely to agree [theoretically workable if US controls all reconstruction finances/processes] ×±6. Iran maintains nuclear enrichment rights: US/Israel unlikely to agree [Theoretically workable with: a) ultra-strict limitations/monitoring/accountability; OR: b) importation permits for uranium enriched suitable only for energy plants, & on condition of limitations/monitoring/accountability ±7. Lifting all primary sanctions on Iran ±8. Lifting all secondary sanctions on Iran ±9. Termination of all resolutions against Iran by the Board of Governors of the IAEA: workable, conditioned on ultra-strict limitations/monitoring/accountability ±10. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions against Iran: workable, conditioned on limitations/monitoring/accountability
#RichardHaass @IgnatiusPost.bsky.social
It will take a miracle for US' negotiations with Iran—& Israel—to produce agreement.
Here are some modest thoughts:
