Q1 ’26 dB’s Global Market Survey: 54% expect a US–Iran ceasefire by end‑April, but 41% think the Strait of Hormuz won’t normalise until ≥Q3. Brent seen staying >$100. US recession odds up, EU #inflation expectations jump, Ukraine ceasefire hopes fade. #AI adoption rising fast, but job‑loss fears + declining US exceptionalism dominate sentiment. #Riskarb #hedgefund #investment #oott #energysecurity

Q1 ’26 dB’s Global Market Survey: 54% expect a US–Iran ceasefire by end‑April, but 41% think the Strait of Hormuz won’t normalise until ≥Q3.

Brent seen staying >$100. US recession odds up, .. #AI adoption rising fast, …

#Riskarb #hedgefund #investment #oott #energysecurity
x.com/mohossain/st...

CBO’s outlook shows the primary deficit holding near ~2% of GDP, but the headline deficit still balloons as the debt stock compounds. The gap between primary and total deficits—~1.2pp in 2015 vs. ~3.2pp today—widens sharply through the 2030s even with rates ≈ growth. With debt now the dominant driver of fiscal slippage, future policy will be constrained less by primary spending choices and more by managing the debt load itself. Could the very tool that helped contain debt in the 2010s—Fed balance sheet expansion—become harder to rely on given Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance on balance sheet growth? https://x.com/mohossain/status/1787128773583790241?s=46 ht:dB/baml #riskarb #investment #ennovance https://x.com/mohossain/status/2024464152224280594?s=46

CBO’s outlook shows the primary deficit holding near ~2% of GDP, but the headline deficit still balloons as the debt stock compounds. The gap between primary and total deficits—~1.2pp in 2015 vs. ~3.2pp today—widens sharply through the 2030s even with rates ≈ growth. With debt now the dominant driver of fiscal slippage, future policy will be constrained less by primary spending choices and more by managing the debt load itself. Could the very tool that helped contain debt in the 2010s—Fed balance sheet expansion—become harder to rely on given Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance on balance sheet growth? https://x.com/mohossain/status/1787128773583790241?s=46 ht:dB/baml #riskarb #investment #ennovance https://x.com/mohossain/status/2024464152224280594?s=46

... Could the very tool that helped contain debt in the 2010s—Fed balance sheet expansion—become harder to rely on given Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance on balance sheet growth?

x.com/mohossain/st... ht:dB/baml #riskarb #investment #ennovance
x.com/mohossain/st...

Layoffs may spike in cycles, but the long‑run trend shows a resilient labor market still absorbing shocks and powering forward.

#riskarb #Employment #job #wage $

Fixed-income yields have surged past S&P 500 forward earnings yields—𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭-𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐝. At today’s rates, Treasuries > Equities. 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐲𝐨𝐮’𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠? #Investing #Yields #FixedIncome #RiskArb #Ennovance https://x.com/mohossain/status/1961085226945282051?s=46

Fixed-income yields have surged past S&P 500 forward earnings yields—𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭-𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐝. At today’s rates, Treasuries > Equities.

𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐲𝐨𝐮’𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠?

#Investing #Yields #FixedIncome #RiskArb #Ennovance
x.com/mohossain/st...

🇨🇳 U.S. trade deficit with China, which tumbled by 70% over five months https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-trade-gap-skids-2-year-low-tariffs-exert-pressure-service-sector-2025-08-05/ #TradeWar #China #Tariffs 🇺🇸 #riskarb

🇨🇳 U.S. trade deficit with China, which tumbled by 70% over five months

www.reuters.com/world/us/us-... #TradeWar #China #Tariffs 🇺🇸 #riskarb

Summer’s last active week and the S&P just sprinted +25% in 75 days—the strongest run since the COVID rebound. History’s crystal ball says +7% in 3 months, +13% in 6 months, +20% in 1 year. Buying at ATH? JPMAM says your FOMO might pay off. 🚀📈 #Investing #Stocks #equity #riskarb $ @ennovance https://x.com/mohossain/status/1949823111815139633?s=46

Summer’s last active week and the S&P just sprinted +25% in 75 days—the strongest run since the COVID rebound. History’s crystal ball says +7% in 3 months, +13% in 6 months, +20% in 1 year. Buying at ATH? JPMAM says your FOMO might pay off. 🚀📈 #Investing #Stocks #equity #riskarb $ @ennovance https://x.com/mohossain/status/1949823111815139633?s=46

Summer’s last active week and the S&P just sprinted +25% in 75 days—the strongest run since the COVID rebound. History’s crystal ball says +7% in 3 months, +13% in 6 months, +20% in 1 year. Buying at ATH? JPMAM says your FOMO might pay off.
🚀📈

#Stocks #riskarb $
@ennovance
x.com/mohossain/st...

Margin debt’s popping champagne like it’s 2000 and 2007—almost but not quite there. Q2 earnings just shrugged off tariffs, and the S&P’s +8.6% YTD isn’t far off a normal +11.5% year. Markets may be a tad frothy, but who doesn’t love a bubble bath? 🛁🚀 #Stocks #equity #investor #riskarb #ennovance

Margin debt’s popping champagne like it’s 2000 and 2007—almost but not quite there. Q2 earnings just shrugged off tariffs, and the S&P’s +8.6% YTD isn’t far off a normal +11.5% year.

Markets may be a tad frothy, but who doesn’t love a bubble bath? 🛁🚀

#Stocks #equity #investor #riskarb
#ennovance

Are Crowded Quant Managers’ Mass Exits in Semis & Software Igniting a Staples-Fueled Consumer Rally or Just Pressing Pause on the Party?

#Riskarb #investor ht:mos-pb #ennovance #hedgefund
x.com/mohossain/st...

Is the global outlook genuinely resilient, or are we all just too busy reorganizing supply chains to hear the Q4 thunder rumbling overhead?

𝐌𝐞𝐦𝐞-𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤 Roar Fades on Wall Street as Retail Finds New Thrills - Bloomberg

x.com/mohossain/st...
#riskarb #hedgefund #investor

July is historically a strong month for stocks, but macroeconomic updates loom
⬇️
A 2-month rally pushed the stock market to record highs — but watch for these risks in July - MarketWatch
www.marketwatch.com/story/a-2-mo... #riskarb #investments $

OBBB?? 🚀

The Stock-Market Rally Is Moving Beyond Big Tech and Investors Are Thrilled
 - WSJ
www.wsj.com/finance/stoc... #riskarb

US data for May suggests that the initial surge in economic activity is waning. While there’s no indication of a recession, geopolitical risks and uncertainties are on the rise.

x.com/mohossain/st...

#Riskarb #hedge #investments #fed

Supply Chains Become New Battleground in the Global Trade War - WSJ
www.wsj.com/economy/trad... news tradewar China #nationalsecurity #vol #riskarb #investor

Total Return Performance for selected global assets (USD terms).

May 2025 saw strong market momentum fueled by positive economic data …. The S&P 500 enjoyed its best performance in 18 months

#investor #riskarb #fund

America’s the maestro of the viral symphony, while the rest of the world dashes to follow the beat—until someone drops an unexpected remix?

⬇️
GS: Global hard economic activity data continue to outperform (red line), while soft survey data (blue line)

#riskon #riskarb #investments #economy

Ennovance

No Rebound in US/China Container Traffic
 
It’s been nearly two weeks since the China/US trade deal, but container traffic from China to the US hasn’t shown a strong rebound.

Are 30% tariffs on China still too high? Or …?

#tradewar #Tariff #riskArb #investment
www.Ennovance.com

S&P 500 Total Return versus Mag-7

#RiskArb #Monopoly $spx

Just How Expensive Are Stocks?
⬇️
…. currently expensive by typical valuation measures, such as price-to-earnings ratios. While high valuations don’t necessarily signal an imminent decline, past market bubbles have eventually led to price drops.

www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
#RiskArb #M2 #ennovance

Stock Market Crashes: A Look at 150 Years of Bear Markets

What does this history tell us about navigating volatile markets? Though they varied in length and severity, the market always recovered and went on to new highs

www.morningstar.com/economy/what... #investor #riskarb

US Credit investors: Recession concerns remained below 2023 levels

⬇️
Are We Headed for Recession? Economists Look Everywhere for Signs.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/07/b...
#economy #Resilience #Investments #riskarb

Dow Headed for Worst April Since 1932 …
www.wsj.com/finance/inve... via @WSJ #RiskArb #ennovance

When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches pneumonia?

⬇️
The flaky case for buying the dip

While professionals are deeply spooked, retail investors are piling in to US stocks
www.ft.com/content/9d03...
#equity #credit #riskarb #investment #riskarb #vol #vix #investor #hedgefund #ennovance #

Stocks lead the economy, not the other way around.
-JPM

#economy #Investments #riskarb #GDP

..US junk bond sell-off as recession risk mounts

Corporate credit is ‘the canary in the coal mine’ for a faltering economy, analysts warn
www.ft.com/content/b3ad...
#Investment #riskarb #credit #loan

The US is energy independent
And yet…. Canadian oil producers have outsized exposure to select group of US Midwest refineries

#CO2 #Energy #oott #shalegas #manufacturing #energysecurity #tradewar #tariffs #investment #riskarb

x.com/mohossain/st...

China and EU spending spree = Opportunity for investor?

x.com/mohossain/st...

Investors are shifting away from U.S. stocks due to high valuations and geopolitical concerns, …

⬇️
www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
#riskarb #equity #credit #investment #vol #hf #tradewar #tariffs

x.com/mohossain/st...

The US has lower trade barriers than ANY other G20 nation

#tariffs #tradewar #riskarb #investor
x.com/mohossain/st...

Private equity

The US has lower trade barriers than ANY other G20 nation

#tariffs #tradewar #riskarb #investor
x.com/mohossain/st...

“A weaker dollar could boost domestic #manufacturing but also increase inflation and make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.”

www.wsj.com/finance/curr...
#riskarb #wage #job #Investments #Fed

🎈https://x.com/mohossain/status/1899459317939487208?s=46

#Tariffs / #Tradewar

“…. The costs of reshoring production, might ultimately be shared by US asset holders and capital owners, rather than just by other countries as envisioned.”
-dB

#equity #housing #valuation #investments #riskarb #M2 #Fed #QE #InterestRate

x.com/mohossain/st...