Good morning Tropical Cyclone #Fina! #05S #02U. #CycloneFina A poorly organised cat 1 (Aus) system at the moment, with some banding, partially exposed LLCC, patchy moisture and poor convective structure.

Intensification predictions vary considerably, worth watching.

The first cyclone track map of the season is out with #02U #97S making landfall on Saturday AM on the Tiwi Islands as a category 2.

Due to its small size, there's significant intensity uncertainty. BOM technical report mentions a chance of category 3 intensity.

Next name is #Fina.

Its going to be a very wet few days for Darwin and the Tiwi islands as tropical low #02U has a high chance of developing into a low end cyclone in a few days time.

It might not be super windy, but it will be very very wet ... #Watching 👀

Tropical Storm #97S has likely formed north of #Australia, but it is expected to eventually hook towards #NT as a potential #cyclone. Currently, Moderate Impacts are expected. Will have a stream up in a couple of hours answering your questions!

#Fina #02U

Regardless of how TL #02U develops (BOM forecast now up to a 55%/high chance of forming by Fri AM!), heavy rain will be a significant threat for many days to come.

TL #02U formed earlier. It remains to be seen if it will
a) intensify into a TC &
b) make landfall as a TC and join the very exclusive club.

Latest BOM forecast has a 35% chance of formation (moderate) by Saturday morning

The BOM is forecasting Tropical Low #02U to develop this weekend to the west of Darwin in the Timor Sea.

Currently only a 15% (low) chance of cyclonic development, but the forecast does mention “environmental conditions are supportive of significant development next week”.