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#1T 275 8 years 2000 to 2040
see red dashed line: CO2 accumulates ppm = 0.013t² - 51t + 49536
see purple dashed line: Temperature = 0.0006t² -2t + 2446
parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/gwfs-2-quadr...
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#1T 275 6 years 2000 to 2050
see red dashed line: CO2 accumulates ppm = 0.013t² - 51t + 49536
see purple dashed line: Temperature = 0.0006t² -2t + 2446
parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/gwfs-2-quadr...
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#1T 275 5 years 1990 to 2060
see red dashed line: CO2 accumulates ppm = 0.013t² - 51t + 49536
see purple dashed line: Temperature = 0.0006t² -2t + 2446
parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/gwfs-2-quadr...
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#1T 275 4 years 1970 to 2060
see red dashed line: CO2 accumulates ppm = 0.013t² - 51t + 49536
see purple dashed line: Temperature = 0.0006t² -2t + 2446
parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/gwfs-2-quadr...
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#1T 275 3 years 1960 to 2160
see red dashed line: CO2 accumulates
ppm = 0.013t² - 51t + 49536
see purple dashed line: Temperature = 0.0006t² -2t + 2446
parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/gwfs-2-quadr...
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#1T 275 2
CO2 accumulates in
parabolic increase
ppm CO2 = 0.0132251t² - 51.0337t + 49,536.7
with the time, t, in (decimal) calendar years.
@gergyl.bsky.social
and results in the
parabolic increase of the Temperature
@climatecasino.net
8ppm in 3 year
x.com/Gergyl/statu...
bsky.app/profile/thom...
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#1T 275
@gergyl.bsky.social
red formula for CO2 works amazing well.
Y = 0.013X2 - 51x + 49.
parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/gwfs-2-quadr...
@reescatophuls.bsky.social
purple quadratic temperature anomaly read right scale
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#1T 274
Climate ‘fingerprints’ mark human activity from the top of the atmosphere to the bottom of the ocean
atm is warming 2 m up ground
atm is cooling 20 km up in the air
lnkd.in/eFvVpGUW
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#1T 273
breaking the Paris limit of 1.5°C before the year is out.
41a20_CO2 copy.py
parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/gwfs-2-quadr...
bsky.app/profile/clim...
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#1T 272
Wow! update of
daily record counts is a good indicator of how hot central Europe has been this decade so far.
x.com/climateguyw/...
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#1T 271
2025 track worst-case SSP5-8.5, by IPCC AR6 temperature projections. Scientists thought this could not happen. 2023 was just above 8.5, record 2024 substantially above, 2025 just on 8.5
Condemns billions to global heating death.
ed-hawkins.github.io/climate-visu...
x.com/PCarterClima...
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#1T 270 5 the formula is
(0.000617965091650558 * date*date) – (2.45858656778789*date) + 2446.05792853123
parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/gwfs-2-quadr...
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#1T 270 4
Could you @reescatophuls.bsky.social
please provide your quadratic temperature formula.
The @gergyl.bsky.social formual for CO2 works amazing well. Y = 0.013X2 - 51x + 49
( later I would like to plot T = ax2 + bx +c in Python )
bsky.app/profile/thom...
( Thank you )
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This graph is the third of a series of graphs showing when we might see the first day / month / year over various global warming milestones. Climate Scientists and institutions have published various projections for how Global Warming might proceed. This graph assumes the future Global Warming will follow a "Highest Possible Ambition" line, as per a graph posted in the ICCI's "State of the Cryosphere Report 2025": > https://iccinet.org/statecryo25/ > https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18153190 If I use this projections and make a few assumption about natural variability, I can come up with plausible dates after which we might see the first day, first month and first year over various global warming milestones (1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C). Also, this would show dates by which we may have seen the last day, last month, last year under various Global Warming Milestones. The graphic shows: X-Axis: The years 1970 to 2050 Y-Axis: The Global Warming Anomaly -0.5°C to 3.0°C There is a trend line which show the global warming from 1970 until present, and then the trend line is projected forwards to 2050. I have used a series of functions to get close to the "Highest Possible Ambition" trendline from a diagram included in the ICCI's "State of the Cryosphere Report 2025". The graph also plots data from Copernicus ERA5, with daily anomalies, monthly anomalies and yearly anomalies. The graph also plots shaded areas, which show the times where we could expect different daily/monthly/yearly anomalies to happen. There are tables which show selected years, such as the first year we might get a year over 1.5°C, or over 2.0°C. The tables to the same for daily and monthly anomalies. See https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/global-warming-futures-series/ for more details, and explanations of how the graph was created and what sanity checks were applied.
#1T 270 3
This 3rd projection in this "Global Warming Futures Series" and projects a future following a "Highest Possible Ambition" trend as included in the ICCI's "State of the Cryosphere Report 2025".
parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/global-warmi...
bsky.app/profile/rees...
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#1T 270 2 quadratic Temperature
if the future follows an accelerating Global Warming trend, and variability is similar to the past.
It also shows when we might have the last year below 2.5°C
parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/global-warmi...
bsky.app/profile/rees...
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This graph is one of a series of graphs showing when we might see the first day / month / year over various global warming milestones. Climate Scientists and institutions have published various projections for how Global Warming might proceed. This graph assumes a global warming of 0.306°C / Decade from now on. It is inspired by James Hansen's work. If I use these projections and make a few assumption about natural variability, I can come up with plausible dates after which we might see the first day, first month and first year over various global warming milestones (1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C). Also, this would show dates by which we may have seen the last day, last month, last year under various Global Warming Milestones. The graphic shows: X-Axis: The years 1970 to 2050 Y-Axis: The Global Warming Anomaly -0.5°C to 3.0°C There is a trend line which show the global warming from 1970 until present, and then the trend line is projected forwards to 2050, with an 0.306°C / Decade warming. The graph also plots data from Copernicus ERA5, with daily anomalies, monthly anomalies and yearly anomalies. The graph also plots shaded areas, which show the times where we could expect different daily/monthly/yearly anomalies to happen. There are tables which show selected years, such as the first year we might get a year over 1.5°C, or over 2.5°C. The tables to the same for daily and monthly anomalies. See https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/global-warming-futures-series/ for more details, and explanations of how the graph was created and what sanity checks were applied.
#1T 270 1
wondering when we could see our first day, first month or first year, with Global Warming above 2.5°C.
0.03°C warming/a
parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/global-warmi...
bsky.app/profile/rees...
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#1T 269
The 1991-2020 climate doesn't exist anymore 😟
bookmark Github with csv data
NASA GISSTEMP Monthly Temperature Anomalies from 1880-1920 up to 2025-11.csv
github.com/LeonSimons/N...
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#1T 268
Global Warming Stripes graph using
NASA GISS temperature data.
The 2- and 3-year averages are now +1.5°C,
while the 2025 annual value was only a little bit lower, due to La Niña.
2, 4, 50 year Lowess smoothing
data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/grap...
bsky.app/profile/leon...
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#1T 267 2
Temperature rising as long as we burn oil, gas, and coal.
This follows from the fact that the carbon atoms we extract from the ground in the form of fossil fuels have not been in the atmosphere for 100 million years and therefore have no carbon sinks.
bsky.app/profile/alev...
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#1T 267
the 3-year running average is going to end the year above 1.50°C for the first time.
2003 jump 0.8°C
2017 jump 1.2°C
2024 jump 1.4°C
bsky.app/profile/did:...
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#1T 266 2
?waiting for a 20 year average?
This new graphic takes the previous one (longest running average for a given date), and for each point on the graph, draws a line back to the “centred-moving-average” date
parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/longest-runn...
bsky.app/profile/rees...
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#1T 266 1
The 3 Year Average for Global Warming just passed 1.5C
The 2 Year Average passed 1.5C in November 2024
I wondered: what is the longest running average, that equals 1.5C for any given date
parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/longest-runn...
bsky.app/profile/rees...
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#1T 265 2
@hausfath.bsky.social
and
@climateofgavin.bsky.social
didn't include the Hansen et al. observation based forcing (+0.5 W/m²) and global warming (0.2°C) estimate of shipping aerosols in their WMO report, without argumentation.
bsky.app/profile/leon...
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#1T 265
Climate change indicators record high (adverse) increasing as
fast as ever, atmospheric CO2 faster than ever
November the third warmest since records began, and likely the third warmest in the last 120,000 years.
ed-hawkins.github.io/climate-visu...
x.com/PCarterClima...
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#1T 263
This graphic predicts future temperatures, based on continued accelerated warming:
1.50°C by 2026
2.00°C by 2036
2.50°C 2045
2.85°C 2050
Of course, a lot of non-linearities are possible before 2050. Like a net-zero, carbon-free, sustainable vegan utopia. Or the other
x.com/EliotJacobso...
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#1T 262 3
Global Warming surging upwards in waves.
The last 365 days:
* 100% over 1.0C
* 50% over 1.5C
* 4% over 1.8C
The post 2024 mega-surge hasn't fully bottomed out yet.
What will 2026 bring us?
bsky.app/profile/rees...
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