🇻🇺 Vanuatu set the record straight: "The next climate talks, #COP31, must be outcome driven, a pathway that drives #1o5C”.
Pacific Islands leadership must remain central at #COP31.
"COP31 won't be in the Pacific, but the Pacific will be at COP31"
www.pican.org/reaction-to-...
To keep global warming below #1o5C, countries now need a concrete roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels:
🟠 Curb production and use,
🟠 End new licensing and subsidies, and
🟠 Mobilize finance for developing countries
A step back: What is the phase-out of fossil fuels❓
Coal, oil & gas are the root cause of the climate crisis: continuing to produce & burn them will push planet-warming emissions beyond the #1o5C limit, we are already experiencing widespread & irreversible damage.
www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...
🌬️ Refresher: What’s at stake? Our planet's health & humanity's own survival.
The failure to limit global heating to #1o5C is a “moral failure and deadly negligence”, UN’s Antonio Guterres.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
⚖️ Courts + laws: the opinion can be used to strengthen climate litigation and national climate laws.
If governments want fewer lawsuits, they must deliver credible, rights-based & #1o5C pathway-aligned policy now.
👀 Reminder 👀
What's a climate COP? The Conference of the Parties (COP) has taken place every year since 1995 & is an opportunity to negotiate new measures & review States’ progress against the overall goal of limiting global warming to #1o5C.
unfccc.int/process/bodi...
Tuvalu steht symbolisch für viele gefährdete Inseln – und für das, was kommt.
Klimaflucht ist Realität.
Loss & Damage ist kein abstrakter Begriff.
Was jetzt fehlt: Solidarität, Finanzierung und politischer Wille.
#ClimateJustice #Tuvalu #1o5C
BLOG: The #EU is risking its #climate leadership & potentially its pathway to limiting warming to #1o5C.
Its 2035 #NDC is still missing.
Political divisions threaten to weaken its delayed 2040 target through international #offsets
🧵
bit.ly/CAT_EU_MIA_25
Japan's new 2035 #NDC of a 60% cut in emissions hasn't changed since early reports in December. Our analysis shows it's nowhere near #1o5C aligned: 81% would be.
Details here
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
With 2024 coming in at or above #1o5C, and a run of 12 months to June 2024 where monthly warming was at or above 1.5°C, questions are coming about whether or not the longer-term 1.5°C limit set out in the Paris Agreement has been reached.
2 papers out today look at these Qs. 🧵👇
While this new proposed NDC is an important milestone in reaching #netzero by 2050, the target of a 61–66% emissions reduction in 2035, to be #1o5C compatible US needs to reduce emissions by 80% in 2035 (incl. LULUCF), under modelled domestic pathways.
2035 TARGET ANALYSIS: The uncertainty around the LULUCF contribution to #Brazil's 2035 NDC poses a big challenge but ultimately, we have found its two targets are not compatible with #1o5C.
🧵
See full analysis: bit.ly/CAT_BRA_2035
The 2015 #ParisAgreement is a landmark treaty that sets a legally binding framework to limit global warming to #1o5C in accordance with best available science & based on equity. All Parties must put forward their plan to slash emissions & align financial flows to #EndFossilFuels.
12/ 🇧🇩Bangladesh argued that harmonious interpretation of different branches of law leads to one obligation: all States must take all necessary measures to deeply & rapidly mitigate GHG emissions to avoid breaching the #1o5c threshold with the greatest burden on developed countries.
ANALYSIS: we've produced updated #1o5C compatible benchmarks for the #transport sector - for the world as a whole, and with a specific focus on 7 countries: the #US, #EU, #China, #India, #Brazil, #SouthAfrica & #Indonesia.
🧵
First, our blog climateactiontracker.org/blog/decarbo...
So, in whose interest is it to debate whether #1o5C is “lost”?
It’s clearly not the vulnerable countries, who'd rather not get to 1.5.
In whose interest is the conversation about whether #1o5C is lost? 🧵
Net zero CO2 by 2050 is key to limit warming to #1o5C. But the integrity of this goal must not be undermined by accounting systems that don’t represent what the atmosphere really sees.
2035 NDC ANALYSIS: while the #UAE's new 2035 #NDC falls within our #1o5C pathways range, it would have to jump from a 7% emissions reduction by 2030 to 44% by 2035, which is simply not credible, given it's nowhere near reaching the 2030 target.
bit.ly/CAT_UAE_2035...
BRAZIL
With LULUCF, Brazil's 2030 #1o5C target would be 75% cut below 2005; 85% by 2035.
Would need to introduce a fossil fuel phase-out (instead of further extraction), and take stronger mitigation measures in agriculture and forestry sectors.
JAPAN
Japan’s commitment to what it terms “clean coal” – an oxymoron that serves to hide continued reliance on the highest polluting fossil fuel – puts it on a pathway inconsistent with limiting warming to #1o5C.
Incl. LULUCF, 1.5°C target should be:
-69% below 2013 in 2030
-81% below 2013 in 2035
What would 2030 and 2035 targets aligned with our #1o5C modelled domestic pathways look like for
* seven major emitters - China, US, India, EU, Indonesia, Japan, Australia
* and the "COP Presidencies Troika" - UAE, Azerbaijan, Brazil?
climateactiontracker.org/documents/12...
2024 has been marked by minimal overall progress, with almost no new national climate targets or #netzero pledges as #fossilfuel emissions have continued rising, despite government promises to align action with #1o5C goal.
In some cases, our projections see warming rising.
Guest post for @carbonbrief.org by the PROVIDE team examines what #1o5C overshoot means for climate impacts and adaptation.
It explains how our tool, the Climate risk dashboard, shows what overshoot really looks like for countries, regions and cities. 👇
climate-risk-dashboard.climateanalytics.org
COUNTRY ANALYSIS: #Türkiye’s climate policy: the good, the bad and the ugly.
- 120GW Wind and solar target by 2035 good
- But would need 150GW to align with #1o5C
Overall #climateactiontracker rating: Critically insufficient.
Policy rating: improved to Highly insufficient.
🔗 bit.ly/CAT_TUR
While the world can still peak emissions before 2025 if emissions fall next year, peaking is just the start of the journey.
We need to accelerate climate action and halve emissions by 2030 to keep the #1o5C warming limit in sight.
On the eve of the conference, the latest scientific reports warned that current policies put us on a path to an increase of temperatures of 3C.
Reminder: The goal of the climate negotiations since 2015 is to take action to keep global warming below #1o5C.
www.politico.eu/article/unit...
#CO2.212.2
1.49°C ist schlecht und 1.51°C ist schlechter.
#1o5C ist ein politisch definierter Wert.
Aber je heisser es wird, je mehr Risiken, Extreme und schwerwiegende, unumkehrbare Folgen haben wir.
@brunncy.bsky.social
twitter.com/brunncy/stat...
twitter.com/bratananium/...
While there are still pathways to limiting warming to #1o5C in the long run, the study also emphasises that we need to 'hedge' against higher warming outcomes if the climate warms more than median estimates, by developing preventative CDR capacity in the 100s of Gt.
🚨NEW PAPER out in Nature: Overconfidence in climate overshoot. 30 scientists led by @carlschleussner.bsky.social analyse scenarios in which we temporarily exceed #1o5C but bring temperatures back down in the long run.
What did they learn? 🧵
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
