The importance of stratocumulus clouds for projected warming patterns and circulation changes | Jan Umsonst How equilibrium climate sensitivity experiments of an instant doubling of CO₂ were conducted via model experiments shocks me all the time An instant doubling of CO₂ would make the whole system go pop...

A short - 1 min read:

"How biased models results cuddled us into extinction - sorry for being polemic!"

#CMIP #CIMP5 #CIMP6 #EAR5 #IPCC #climate #earth

The land masses and the ocean continue with rising atmospheric GHG concentrations to take up each year more CO2 till atmospheric concentrations start to sink as our emissions became negative. Source: Source: "Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized simulation and a scenario simulation of negative emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models"; https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/21/411/2024/bg-21-411-2024.pdf

"Global Carbon Budget 2024"; https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/965/2025/essd-17-965-2025.pdf

As the terrestrial carbon sink is already collapsing while the carbon sink of the oceans is weakening the last years here how it looks like in models - we have here a massive model error in the making...

#climate #CIMP6

Is scientific reticence hindering climate understanding? The bulk of climate research has tended to underplay worst-case scenarios, preferring cautious projections and scholarly reticence. This reticence is clearly displayed in the work of the IPCC, which c...

Earth system science became corrupted to go always for the least problematic assumption which proved in most cases wrong!

"Scientific reticence may be understood as the reluctance to spell out the full risk implications of science in the absence of perfect information."

#climate #science #CIMP6

Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations The science of confronting Earth System Model trends with observations is reviewed, and future directions are discussed.

Waited for that one for years now!

Will be interesting how many of the model errors they address

The problem is that the Earth system is complex and we speak here about hundreds of important changes of which close to all are underestimated

Will be my nighttime lecture for today!

#climate #CIMP6

"This is urgently required for updating impact assessments of extreme weather on ecosystems and climate services, but also for ensuring that climate and Earth system models are fit for purpose in predicting the magnitude and frequency of extremes."Computational power the problem #CMIP5 #CIMP6 #CMIP7

Resolving Weather Fronts Increases the Large‐Scale Circulation Response to Gulf Stream SST Anomalies in Variable‐Resolution CESM2 Simulations There is a large circulation response to idealized Gulf Stream sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in an atmospheric model with 14-km regional grid refinement This response is weaker or absen...

Next major flaw of climate models slowly reveals itself: small scale driven circulation

You need e.g. to simulate the intensification of convection to simulate the circulation response to warming as vertical movements drive horizontal air mass movements

#climate #uöäü1models #CMIP5 #CMIP6 #CIMP6

Shows the sea ice decline in the different scenarios "Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario"; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8

Slowly model results are closing in on an Arctic sea ice free September:

"The stronger SIA declines have advanced first ice-free years to around the 2030s–50s in all SSP scenarios."

Sadly, the spread is way too large as it could happen as early as 2027-2030...

#CIMP5 #CIMP6 #CMIP7 #climate