Wondering what makes EERIE different from #CMIP6 @wcrp-cmip.org simulations❓
MPI-M's Jin-Song von Storch will be addressing that question TODAY at 2pm CEST.
🔗Join her on this link and find out: awi.webex.com/awi-en/j.php...
ℹ️ More info: eerie-project.eu/event/storms...
#ClimateResearchNet
So, #ClimateSky, solve an argument between co-authors: When writing a paper specificalyy using outputs from #CMIP6 models, do you prefer to use GCM or ESM as descriptor?
#GlobalClimateModel
#EarthSystemModel
📊 Winner #2: Yu, Zhang, Zhou & Zheng assess CMIP6 models in simulating droughts across global drylands essential for improving climate predictions. doi.org/10.1007/s003...
#DroughtResearch #ClimateModeling #CMIP6 #AcademicSky
📊 Winner #2: Yu, Zhang, Zhou & Zheng assess CMIP6 models in simulating droughts across global drylands essential for improving climate predictions. doi.org/10.1007/s003...
#DroughtResearch #ClimateModeling #CMIP6 #Science
#ClimateModels can't match #LongTerm observed changes in the #TropicalPacific zonal #SSTGradient, implying model responses to growing radiative forcing from #GHG is diverging. #ClimateChange #CMIP6 @hannah-byrne.bsky.social @lamont.columbia.edu @climate.columbia.edu
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
📢Artificial intelligence-driven #precipitation #downscaling and projections over #Thailand using #CMIP6 climate models
👉https://doi.org/10.1080/20964471.2025.2547500
💌 #AI #DyNN-Mem #LSTM #CNN #Deeplearning #machinelearning #CMIP6 #hydrology #climatechange #remotesensing #WaterResources
Check out our new deliverable, a catalogue of strong non-linear climate surprises that emerge from our analysis of #CMIP6 and idealised #ESM simulations based on #TIPMIP protocol. 🌎🔍
Catalogue available on Github: github.com/orgs/TipESM-..., report on Zenodo: zenodo.org/records/1788...
New paper in GRL @agu.org!
Using #CMIP6 large ensembles, we find that most climate models project an increase in #ENSO frequency and intensity under anthropogenic #warming — driven by a shift toward Eastern Pacific El Niño pattern and amplified variability overall.
🌎 Read: doi.org/10.1029/2025...
En este proyecto nuestro rol fue el de obtener, mediante técnicas de #downscaling estadístico y para tres modelos del #CMIP6, escenarios locales de cambio climático para su posterior uso en otras modelizaciones para la adaptación y #mitigación del cambio climático en Distender_eu. 📈
#MarineCloud reflectivity declined by 2.8%/decade in the NE Pacific and N Atlantic, enhancing shortwave absorption beyond #CMIP6 projections. An improved aerosol-climate model shows #aerosol reductions may account for ~69% of the decline @uwenvironment.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...
We derive these likelihood estimates considering the large uncertainties around the projected ice-shelf mass balance, studying an ensemble covering forcing from several #CMIP6 climate models, ocean-induced melt parameterizations and bedrock plasticities.
4/7
Another important model error:
"In recent decades, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index has shown a sustained shift toward more strongly positive values, exceeding the range projected by climate models under high greenhouse gas scenarios."
#CMIP6 #climate #uöäü1models
Precipitation‑Variability‑Analysis‑MATLAB, an example for accessing, processing, and visualizing global #climate #data directly in #MATLAB from the #CMIP6 archive!
Use "Open in MATLAB Online" to get free access to run the code.
github.com/mathworks/Pr...
#Geospatial #Geodata #Visualization
The tipping point of the Earth system arises out of the emergence of subsystem changes of its dynamic components and is triggered by the rate of warming
It seems that it has already started...
#climate #earth #CMIP6 #tippingpoint
What a model error in the making:
"In particular, 32–44% of the warm anomalies and 52–88% of the dry anomalies fall within the range of warmer–drier conditions projected for 2081–2100 by state-of-the-art climate models under a medium emissions scenario. "
#CMIP6 #climate
In a recent study, Alistair Duffey et al. assess how well global climate models (specifically those from #CMIP6) represent the Arctic winter atmospheric boundary layer above sea ice.
🔍 www.crices-h2020.eu/news/model-r...
Way back in 2022, as the world tried to readjust back to "normal" following COVID - I helped to co-organise a bootcamp with sponsorhop from the @wcrp_climate IASC, @esaclimate and a generous dollop of help from @PolarRES and @dmidk colleagues.
We gathered 10 senior scientist mentors and 22 […]
New in JGR Oceans: Unifying Future Ocean Oxygen Projections Using an Oxygen Water Mass Framework by Ditkovsky and Resplandy 2025
Scientists present an “oxygen water mass framework” to constrain and understand projections of ocean oxygen and oxygen minimum zones in an ensemble of 14 Earth System Models.
🔗Check out their #OpenAccess paper: doi.org/10.1029/2025...
#AGUPubs #STEM #CMIP6 #Climate #Oceanography
📣Check out the new #publication from ObsSea4Clim, focused on the representation of #Atlantic water layer in the #Arctic #Ocean within #CMIP6 #climate model simulations.
📃"Constraining CMIP6 simulations for Atlantic water in the Arctic using an AMOC-SST index" now available in #OpenAccess!
An elevation and bathymetry map of the UK and Ireland in shades ranging from blue (land) to orange and yellow (sea). Data from GEBCO and NASA.
An elevation map of a stretch of the Rio Grande in Colorado. DEM data from the USGS
Expected precipitation changes 2070-2090 for the highest CO2 emissions model. Data is from the global CMIP6 model, and extracted from NOAA. Background elevation data from GEBCO.
Sea surface temperature anomalies from July 2023, one of the hottest on record. Data from NOAA. Higher positive anomalies in red, negative anomalies in blue.
A scientist with an art habit. I like big data and posting articles and comments that I think are important. I use data from #USGS #NOAA #NASA #CMIP6 #LibraryofCongress #Smithsonian #NIH #NIAID #DOE #GEBCO #Hydrosheds to promote #Science and #SciArt
Shows the occurrence of atmospheric (low humidity and high air temperatures) and soil drought conditions "Drought directly limits terrestrial water availability and carbon uptake through low soil moisture (SM) and/or high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) 6,7 , and extreme water stress can substan- tially reduce agricultural production 8,9 and bring about wide- spread vegetation mortality 10,11 . Specifically, drought suppresses photosynthetic assimilation rates by reducing stomatal conduc- tance and related enzyme activity 6,12 and inducing leaf senes- cence and abscission as well 13 , resulting in reduced gross primary productivity (GPP) at the ecosystem scale. When water is limited, compound droughts (CDs) characterized by concurrent low SM and high VPD would cause even greater reductions in GPP than soil drought (low SM) or atmospheric aridity (high VPD) alone 14,15 . Low SM and high VPD tend to occur simultaneously over much of the global land surface, as SM deficits reduce evapotranspiration and increase sensible heat flux, resulting in a drier and warmer atmosphere and a higher VPD, and the high VPD in turn enhances evaporative water loss and accelerates reduction in SM16,17 . " Here on models: CDs are projected to become more frequent and more extreme, which could greatly reduce land carbon sink and compromise climate mitigation efforts 3,14 . However, assessments of past and future changes in CDs largely focus on extreme events from a statistical perspective 4,17,18 without taking into account whether these events cause adverse impacts on the environment. Risks of VCDs have been greatly underestimated as the widely adopted quantile-based approach identifies only 11% of VCDs and 26% of global GPP anomalies due to VCDs. The frequency and intensity of VCDs and their adverse impacts on carbon uptake are projected to increase further, irrespective of whether the CO2 fertilization effect on vegetation growth and photosynthesis is considered or not.
Next massive model error gets confirmed: Serious underestimation of reduced carbon uptake due to vegetation compound droughts
The error will develop a non-linear nature as the underlying processes not included in models behave non-linear...
#CMIP6 #CMIP5 #climate #extremeevents #uöäü1sinks
We find that in 2023 the Amazon region was, including fires, a net carbon source of 0.01 to 0.17 PgC.
"Reduced vegetation uptake during the extreme 2023 drought turns the Amazon into a weak carbon source"; pure.mpg.de/rest/items/i...
#climate #Amazon #Forest #Earth #uöäü1sinks #CMIP6
A global map of modeled (CMIP6) climate change for 2070-2090 for the highest emissions case. Above the map in white letters: Climate Change 2070; below the map is a colorbar with red on the left and blue on the right. The map shows areas of reduced rainfall in red and increased rainfall in blue. Large swaths of the Atlantic, Indian, and South Pacific Oceans, South and Central America, and parts of sourthern Europe and Africa with see significant reductions in rainfall. Large parts of Asia, central Africa, and the Southern Ocean are predicted to experience increased rainfall.
A map of expected changes in rainfall by 2070 in mm/year. #SciArt #GIS #QGIS #CMIP6 #ClimateChange #Climate
DreamingBeetle.redbubble.com
A map of the world showing expected temperature increases by 2070, ranging from cool blues (1.5 degrees C) to pale gold (8.5 degrees C). Land masses tend to show greater temperature increases than the oceans. a colorbar shows the range below the map. At the top of the map: Climate Change 2070. Data was plotted using QGIS software; data is from global climate models (CMIP6) via NOAA.
Global climate models suggest summer temperature increases of 8.5 C (>15 F) by 2070. I rely on access to US government and public data to make these images. #GIS #climatemodels #NOAA #SciArt #Climatechange #GEBCO #CMIP6
DreamingBeetle.redbubble.com
This model error just blows off my mind
Over the past two decades,boreal biomass burning emissions (BBEs) have increased dramatically, and are expected to continue increasing. In contrast, #CMIP6 models prescribe a future (2015-2100) boreal BBE scenario with low values and near-zero trends #climate
I havent touched any @pangeo.io code in over 2 months and today dove back in.
Just a little snippet to extract citation data from #CMIP6 data, but damn does it feel good to be on the keyboard again hahaha.
github.com/jbusecke/xMI...
Models lost in a fantasy world producing total nonsense while climate reality does a 180° 🤪
"Models show that after the CO2 concentration and air temperature peaks, land and ocean are decreasing carbon sinks from the 2,040s and become sources for a limited time in the 22nd century"
#climate #CMIP6
This highlights the necessity for more stringent data quality control protocols in future CMIP iterations, with rigorous application by modeling teams. #ClimateModeling #CMIP6 #DataQuality
two graphs showing radiative forcing on the left side and global mean temperature on the right. Both have multiple colourful lines showing different trajectories but generally increasing from low on the left to high on the right, corresponding to different possible climate change futures.
SSP1 and SSP5 describe worlds with strong economic growth via sustainable and fossil fuel pathways, respectively. In both scenarios, incomes increase substantially across the globe and inequality within and between countries is greatly reduced; however, this growth comes at the expense of potentially large impacts from climate change in the case of SSP5. Demand for energy- and resource-intensive agricultural commodities such as ruminant meat is significantly lower in SSP1 due to changes in behavior and advances in energy efficiency. In both scenarios, pollution controls are expanded in high-income economies with other nations catching up relatively quickly with the developed world, resulting in reductions in air pollutant emissions. SSP2 is a so-called middle-of-the-road scenario with moderate population growth and slower convergence of income levels across countries. In SSP2, food consumption, especially for resource-intensive livestock-based commodities, is expected to increase and energy generation continues to rely on fossil fuels at approximately the same rates as today, resulting in continued growth of GHG emissions. Efforts at curbing air pollution continue along current trajectories with developing economies ultimately catching up to high-income nations, resulting in an eventual decrease in pollutant emissions.
Looking up the old #CMIP6 emissions pathways for a thing - and while I wish I lived in SSP1, it feels a lot more like SSP3 or 5 right now.
Beats me why they call #Economics the Dismal Science...🫠
SSP1 and SSP5 describe worlds with strong economic growth via sustainable and fossil fuel pathways, respectively. In both scenarios, incomes increase substantially across the globe and inequality within and between countries is greatly reduced; however, this growth comes at the expense of potentially large impacts from climate change in the case of SSP5. Demand for energy- and resource-intensive agricultural commodities such as ruminant meat is significantly lower in SSP1 due to changes in behavior and advances in energy efficiency. In both scenarios, pollution controls are expanded in high-income economies with other nations catching up relatively quickly with the developed world, resulting in reductions in air pollutant emissions. SSP2 is a so-called middle-of-the-road scenario with moderate population growth and slower convergence of income levels across countries. In SSP2, food consumption, especially for resource-intensive livestock-based commodities, is expected to increase and energy generation continues to rely on fossil fuels at approximately the same rates as today, resulting in continued growth of GHG emissions. Efforts at curbing air pollution continue along current trajectories with developing economies ultimately catching up to high-income nations, resulting in an eventual decrease in pollutant emissions. Finally, SSP3 and SSP4 depict futures with high inequality between countries (i.e., “regional rivalry”) and within countries, respectively. Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth is low in both scenarios and concentrated in currently high-income nations, whereas population increase is focused in low- and middle-income countries. Energy systems in SSP3 see a resurgence of coal dependence, whereas reductions occur in SSP4 as the high-tech energy and economy sectors see increased developments and investments leading to higher diversification of technologies (Bauer et al., 2017). Policy making (either regionally or internally) in areas including land-…
two graphs showing radiative forcing on the left side and global mean temperature on the right. Both have multiple colourful lines showing different trajectories but generally increasing from low on the left to high on the right, corresponding to different possible climate change futures.
Looking up the old #CMIP6 emissions pathways for a thing - and while I wish I lived in SSP1, it feels a lot more like SSP3 or 5 right now.
Beats me why they call #Economics the Dismal Science...🫠
