100 000 Years to Coinflip 7/10
What if we only give it 20 years? To reach 50% in that time would require ~34,657 tickets per year. 💸
#TwentyYearPlan #CapitalIntensity #EuroMath

2 Bloomberg: “They’re some of the best business models the market has ever seen,” said Jim Morrow at Callodine Capital Management. “Now you’ve seen this explosion in #capitalintensity to the point where it’s now the most #capital intensive sector in the market. That’s just a radical change.” 🧵

4/ The challenge: Only 8,000 aerospace engineers graduate annually. High capital needs and mission risks test startups against giants like SpaceX. #TalentGap #CapitalIntensity

. . . technological advancements, particularly in AI, on the global tech landscape and the potential deflation of the AI investment bubble. It begins by contextualizing the US-China tech war, highlighting how the US initially believed it had a comparative advantage in technology. However, China has made significant strides in areas like 5G, high-speed rail, electric vehicles, and drones, challenging this assumption. The release of DeepSeek, an open-source AI large language model (LLM) developed in China at a fraction of the cost of its Western counterparts, is seen as a pivotal moment. DeepSeek challenges the narrative that China cannot innovate due to its political regime and undermines the belief that massive capital expenditure by US tech giants will secure their dominance in AI. This development has led to questions about the sustainability of the AI bull market, with comparisons drawn to the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. The article also touches on the internal conflicts within OpenAI, contrasting its shift from a non-profit to a corporate model with DeepSeek's open-source approach. It suggests that the AI market may be reaching a saturation point, where the massive investments by US tech companies could yield diminishing returns, similar to the "metaverse" fiasco. The potential deflation of the AI bubble raises broader economic questions, such as its impact on the Nasdaq, the US dollar, and US treasuries. The article speculates that if the next major technological innovation emerges outside the US, it could weaken the US dollar and shift global economic dynamics. In conclusion, DeepSeek represents a significant shift in the tech war between the US and China, challenging the capital-intensive model of AI development and promoting a return to open-source, capital-light innovation. This development could mark a turning point in the global tech ecosystem, with far-reaching implications for both markets and geopolitical power structures.

#AI #DeepSeek #TechWar #China #OpenSource #ArtificialIntelligence #Innovation #USChinaRelations #InvestmentBubble #TechMarket #Nasdaq #USDollar #GlobalEconomy #Semiconductors #CapitalIntensity #OpenAI #DotComBubble #Geopolitics #EmergingTech

The article discusses the impact of China's . . .

The rise of cloud computing and generative AI has flipped the script on capital intensity. Tech companies, once light on physical assets, now outspend energy giants. In 2023, tech sales surpassed energy by 28%.

#TechVsEnergy #CapitalIntensity #BigTech