Eurostat Reports Retail Trade Volume in Europe Drops Slightly in February 2026 Food and tobacco sales decline while automotive fuel sees modest gains, highlighting mixed trends across EU member states

Eurostat Reports Retail Trade Volume in Europe Drops Slightly in February 2026 #Eurostat #RetailTrade #EconomicTrends #EuropeEconomy #FoodSales

Italy GDP Outlook: Istat Forecasts Growth Through 2026 Istat predicts Italy’s GDP to rise by 0.6% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026. Explore key data on domestic demand, inflation, and Transition 5.0.

INFLATION
Italy GDP Outlook: Istat Forecasts Growth Through 2026
cinquewnews.blogspot.com/2026/04/ital... #Inflation #ItalyGDP #EconomicOutlook #ISTAT #ItalianEconomy #GDPGrowth #EconomicForecast #Macroeconomics #DomesticDemand #EmploymentGrowth #InflationRate #EconomicTrends #EuropeEconomy #Fiscal

Europe faces potential stagflation as an oil spike drives inflation, complicating ECB rate cut plans. Energy import dependency makes the region vulnerable. 🇪🇺📉 #EuropeEconomy #Stagflation

European Commission President says Middle East conflict is driving up energy costs - Yes Punjab News Von der Leyen warns Middle East conflict has raised EU gas by 50% and oil by 27%, adding €3bn in energy costs in 10 days.

European Commission President says Middle East conflict is driving up energy costs yespunjab.com?p=227059

#EU #UrsulaVonDerLeyen #EnergyCrisis #GasPrices #OilPrices #MiddleEastConflict #EuropeanCommission #Strasbourg #CleanEnergy #NuclearEnergy #EUSanctions #Iran #EnergySecurity #EuropeEconomy

Macron warns Europe faces political and economic crisis
#EmmanuelMacron #EuropeEconomy #GlobalCompetition
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fNJ...

European corporate giants anticipate their worst Q4 earnings in nearly a decade, with a projected 4.1% drop. Economic headwinds are clearly impacting performance. 📉 #EuropeEconomy #Earnings

Dutch Unemployment Update
The Netherlands' jobless rate held at 4% in November, the highest level since 2021. Employment dipped slightly, while workforce participation edged lower.

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#Belgium Construction Output Slips
Construction output fell 0.5% YoY in October, the first decline in five months, led by weaker civil engineering activity. On a monthly basis, activity edged up 0.4%, showing a modest rebound.

#Construction #EconomicData #EuropeEconomy #MarketUpdate

IMF's Kristalina Georgieva highlights Europe's tech lag: US firms <50 yrs old dwarf EU counterparts in market cap ($10B+). 🇪🇺 lagging US in innovation & per capita GDP since mid-80s. 📉 #EuropeEconomy #Innovation #Tech

🇩🇪 Germany’s mixed signals: ZEW expectations index improves slightly, but exports & industrial production remain weak. High energy costs keep manufacturing expenses elevated.
#Germany #ZEW #Industry #Exports #EnergyPrices #EuropeEconomy

What faster German growth means for Europe Investing.com -- Germany’s planned fiscal stimulus is poised to boost growth across the euro area, offering a rare engine of demand at a time when many governments lack spending power, according to Deutsche Bank. Berlin has committed to nearly EUR 800 billion in new borrowing for defence and infrastructure by the end of the decade, a package worth close to 20% of GDP and comparable in scale to reunification transfers. That shift has led economists to raise German growth forecasts for 2025–27 by almost two percentage points. Given Germany’s 27% weight in the euro area economy, the direct effect alone could lift euro area GDP by about 0.5 percentage points over the period, the bank said. Spillovers through trade and confidence could add another 0.2 points, bringing the total boost to around 0.75 points. “Other member states do not possess the same fiscal space but they can benefit from the spillover effects of Germany’s fiscal expansion” Neighbouring countries tied to Germany’s manufacturing supply chain like Austria, Slovakia and Slovenia stand to gain most relative to their size, while France and Italy should also benefit from higher German imports of machinery and equipment. Confidence effects could further lift growth across the bloc, with business sentiment in the euro area historically moving in step with Germany’s. The scale of the stimulus, however, may complicate the European Central Bank’s policy path. Deutsche Bank said that while recent ECB forecasts assumed only a modest spillover, the impact could be larger, shifting the debate from risks of further easing to potential tightening by 2026. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. “The German plan has the potential to stimulate activity in Europe over the coming two years in a significant way,” the bank said, though capacity constraints and policy responses will determine how much of the impulse is captured abroad. Which stocks should you consider in your very next trade? The best opportunities often hide in plain sight—buried among thousands of stocks you'd never have time to research individually. That's why smart investors use our Stock Screener with 50+ predefined screens and 160+ customizable filters to surface hidden gems instantly. For example, the Piotroski's Picks method averages 23% annual returns by focusing on financial strength, and you can get it as a standalone screen. Momentum Masters catches stocks gaining serious traction, while Blue-Chip Bargains finds undervalued giants. With screens for dividends, growth, value, and more, you'll discover opportunities others miss. Our current favorite screen is Under $10/share, which is great for discovering stocks trading under $10 with recent price momentum showing some very impressive returns!

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What a peace could mean for Europe’s economy? Investing.com -- The prospect of a peace deal or ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has raised questions about its economic impact on Europe. A new analysis by HSBC suggests that while an immediate peace dividend would be modest, several channels could shape the continent’s recovery and growth. HSBC economists estimate that an enduring peace or prolonged ceasefire could lift European GDP by 0.2% to 0.3%. A more wide-ranging settlement, particularly one that restores Russian energy flows, could deliver a larger boost, but the report stresses that such outcomes remain uncertain. Energy supply stands out as the most direct channel. The European Union cut its reliance on Russian gas from more than 40% in 2021 to just over 10% in 2024. HSBC notes that only significant sanctions relief and a major rebound in Russian supply would materially lower energy prices. In one scenario, a 10% fall in gas and oil prices would reduce eurozone inflation by 0.4 percentage points for a year, adding about 0.1 percentage point to EU growth. Lower prices could also help manufacturers regain competitiveness and support consumer confidence. Defense spending is another factor. NATO members have committed to raising defense expenditure to 5% of GDP by 2035, including 3.5% for military outlays. HSBC expects EU military spending to rise by 0.5% of GDP by 2027, lifting GDP by about 0.3 percentage points. A peace settlement that increases European responsibility in the region could accelerate this trajectory. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. Germany has already pledged to reach the 3.5% target by 2029, while EU states have shown strong demand for the bloc’s €150 billion defense loan program. Trade with Russia and the return of Ukrainian refugees could also play a role, though HSBC sees limited upside. Before the war, exports to Russia accounted for 0.8% of EU GDP, and Ukraine represented 0.2% of Europe’s foreign direct investment stock. On migration, the return of large numbers of refugees would reduce labor supply, but UN surveys show only 5% intend to go back this year. A major potential driver is Ukraine’s reconstruction. Damage through the end of 2024 has been estimated at $524 billion, with the largest needs in housing and transport. European firms could play a major role in rebuilding, but much of the damaged territory lies in Russian-occupied regions, which could limit opportunities. The EU has already committed €50 billion in aid for 2024-2027 and has proposed up to €100 billion in grants and loans for 2028-34 through joint debt issuance. AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes 6 winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. Which stock will be the next to soar?

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America’s Stock-Market Dominance Is an Emergency for Europe - WSJ - The Wall Street Journal America’s Stock-Market Dominance Is an Emergency for Europe - WSJ  The Wall Street Journal

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Analysis-For Europe, 30% US tariff would hammer trade, force export model rethink © Reuters. A container ship is seen at the loading terminal "Altenwerder" in the port of Hamburg, Germany, February 17, 2025. REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer/File Photo By Philip Blenkinsop and Francesco Canepa BRUSSELS (Reuters) -The 30% tariff on European goods threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump would, if implemented, be a game-changer for Europe, wiping out whole chunks of transatlantic commerce and forcing a rethink of its export-led economic model. European ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday remained convinced they can bring Trump back from the brink before his Aug. 1 deadline and reach a deal that would keep the $1.7 trillion two-way trading relationship broadly intact. But the wild swings in Trump’s mood towards the European Union - which he has sometimes labelled as friendly and at other times accused of being set up specifically to destroy the United States - keep the 30% threat very much alive for now. "It will be almost impossible to continue the trading as we are used to in a transatlantic relationship," EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said of the 30% rate before meeting ministers and officials of the 27 EU capitals to give them an update. "Practically it prohibits the trade." EU officials had been hoping they could limit the damage by agreeing a baseline tariff around 10% - the one currently in place - with additional carve-outs for key sectors like autos. Last year the United States accounted for a fifth of all EU exports - its largest partner. Trump’s bugbear is the $235 billion U.S. deficit generated by the goods component of that trade, even though the U.S. earns a surplus on services. UPEND POLICY PLANS The impact of making European exports - from pharmaceuticals to autos, machinery or wine - too expensive to be viable for American consumers would be instantly tangible. Economists at Barclays estimate an average tariff rate on EU goods of 35% including both reciprocal and sectoral duties combined with a 10% retaliation from Brussels would shave 0.7 percentage points off euro zone output. This would eat up most of the euro zone’s already meagre growth and likely lead the European Central Bank to cut its 2% deposit rate further. "Inflation would likely undershoot the 2% target more deeply, and for longer, prompting a more accommodative monetary policy stance – with the deposit rate potentially reaching 1% by (March 2026)," the Barclays economists said. An earlier estimate by German economic institute IW found tariffs of 20% to 50% would cost Germany’s 4.3 trillion euro economy more than 200 billion euros between now and 2028. While arguably small in percentage terms, that lost activity could still upend Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s plans to push through tax cuts and spend more on renewing the country’s long neglected infrastructure. "We would have to postpone large parts of our economic policy efforts because it would interfere with everything and hit the German export industry to the core," Merz said at the weekend of a 30% rate. NOWHERE TO RUN Further down the line, it raises bigger questions over how Europe recoups the lost activity to generate the tax revenues and jobs needed to fund ambitions ranging from caring for ageing populations to military rearmament. Under its existing policy of trade diversification, the EU has done well in striking preliminary deals with new partners but - as the continued delay over completion of the giant EU-Mercosur trade pact shows - it has struggled to get them fully signed and sealed. "The EU does not have different markets to pull up to and sell into," Varg Folkman, policy analyst at the European Policy Centre think tank said of the long and complex timelines involved in classic free trade deals. Some observers have argued the stand-off with Trump is what the EU needs to complete long-delayed reforms of its single market, boosting domestic demand and rebalancing its economy away from the exports which account for around half of output. The International Monetary Fund has estimated the EU’s own internal barriers to the free flow of activity are the equivalent of tariffs of 44% for goods and 110% for services. Mooted reforms such as creating freer cross-border capital markets have made little headway in more than a decade. "It is easier said than done. There isn’t an agreement to deepen. The barriers are imposed by the EU members themselves to benefit their own," Folkman said of the web of national regulations. How all this plays into the EU’s negotiating strategy in the less than three weeks ahead remains to be seen - but for now, the bloc has stuck to its line of being open to talks while readying retaliatory measures if they break down. One thing that might persuade Trump to reach a deal, some European observers suggest, is that the lingering uncertainty may by itself push back the timing of the Federal Reserve interest rate cut the U.S. president so desires. "The latest developments on the trade war suggest that it will take more time to get a sense of the ’landing zone’ on tariffs...which of course raises uncertainty for everyone, including the Fed," AXA chief economist Gilles Moec said. "With this new salvo...calls for cutting quickly get even harder to justify."

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Analysis-Political chaos leaves France sidelined as investors warm to Europe By Yoruk Bahceli and Leigh Thomas LONDON/AIX-EN-PROVENCE, France (Reuters) -France is missing out on the investor optimism that has defined Europe’s markets this year, hamstrung by its strained public finances and political volatility that threatens to paralyse policy until at least 2027. Global investors and French executives cite the risk that budget negotiations could trigger another government collapse in the autumn, while pessimism among French households is dragging on consumer spending and economic growth. Centrist Prime Minister Francois Bayrou has faced eight no-confidence motions in parliament since taking office in December and his minority government is now struggling to find 40 billion euros ($47 billion) in spending cuts for the 2026 budget. The contrast with neighbouring Germany, whose new government is preparing to loosen historically tight purse strings and pump billions into the economy through defence and infrastructure spending, could hardly be starker. "While all the other highly indebted European countries - Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy - have taken advantage of years of inflation to reduce their public debt ratio, France - whose deficit is now the highest in the euro zone - is increasingly diverging," said Pierre Moscovici, head of the Cour des Comptes public audit office and a former finance minister. To narrow the budget gap, Bayrou will have to convince opposition parties to stomach spending cuts only slightly smaller than those proposed in the 2025 budget that brought down his predecessor. OUT OF FAVOUR Germany’s historic embrace of looser fiscal policy and the impact of President Donald Trump’s sometimes erratic policymaking on confidence in U.S. assets have given a boost to European financial markets and other investments this year. A key beneficiary has been Italy, which has seen the risk premium paid on its 10-year debt compared to that of safe-haven Germany drop towards where it traded in 2010, before the euro zone debt crisis escalated. But the 10-year risk premium paid by French debt over German is still at 70 basis points, well above levels of around 50 bps seen before French President Emmanuel Macron called a shock snap election last summer. The French-Italian yield gap is meanwhile near all-time lows, even though Italy has a bigger debt pile. Candriam’s chief investment officer Nicolas Forest said he favoured German, Italian and Spanish bonds and was underweight France, a situation he called "completely unusual". French stocks are missing out, too. The blue-chip CAC 40 index trades below where it was before the election was called and is lagging Europe’s STOXX 600 aggregate. The Paris index has returned just 5% this year, four times less than Germany’s DAX. Simon Blundell, co-head of fundamental European fixed income at BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), the world’s biggest investor, said he had no big positions in French debt and favoured Italian bonds, encouraged by political stability in Rome and declining volatility. Even if France’s government survives the autumn, investors expect the budget squeeze to underwhelm as a fix for fiscal strains and so fail to increase the appeal of French assets. "Any compromise political parties find will be really temporary in terms of measures, and not great for debt reduction and deficit improvement," said Candriam’s Forest. And even presidential and parliamentary elections in 2027 may not fully dispel the political uncertainty, if no party emerges dominant. REAL ECONOMY BLUES To prod opposition parties to back Bayrou’s budget, Public Finances Minister Amélie de Montchalin has suggested France could turn to an IMF bailout if it does not decisively grip its finances. Carrefour (EPA:CARR) CEO Alexandre Bompard said such doomy talk only caused the French to save more, jeopardising a consumer spending recovery that he said was more fragile than in the supermarket giant’s other European markets. "If we have 5 percentage points more savings than other European countries, it’s because we have an extraordinarily high level of political and fiscal uncertainty," Bompard told an economics conference in Aix-en-Provence on Friday. With consumers hesitant to spend, French business activity has consistently lagged European peers this year, even though the private sector is less exposed to U.S. trade tensions than Germany or Italy’s more export-focused economies. "The economy is genuinely struggling, and you can see this in PMIs month after month where France is getting singled out for how weak it is," said Barclays’ head of euro rates strategy Rohan Khanna, referring to the PMI surveys of company activity. Since January, economists polled by Reuters have downgraded France’s 2026 growth forecast to 1%, while Germany’s has been upgraded twice, to 1.3%. Brushing aside any prospect of IMF intervention to prop up France’s public finances, the Fund’s French chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas insisted Paris could no longer put off getting its fiscal house in order. "France is not exempt from the laws of gravity, so we’re going to have to adapt," Gourinchas said in Aix-en-Provence. "We can’t fly, we’re going to have to plan our landing and make spending cuts." ($1 = 0.8542 euros) Don't miss out on the next big opportunity! Stay ahead of the curve with ProPicks AI – 6 model portfolios fueled by AI stock picks with a stellar performance this year... In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech Stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies. So if CARR is on your watchlist, it could be very wise to know whether or not it made the ProPicks AI lists.

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An interesting summary about the state of Volkswagen and its impact on Germany. It aligns well with several German sources I’ve seen.

The scary thing is that similar developments might be coming up for BMW, Audi, Mercedes—and many of their suppliers.

[1/3] #EuropeEconomy #MobilityTransition

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Without funds from Iran nuclear deal, Europe will become economic wasteland. #IranDeal #EuropeEconomy support our work by using this amazon link whenever you shop: tinyurl.com/amazondiscou...

Goldman and Citi See Europe’s Economy Powering Stock Rally - Yahoo Finance Goldman and Citi See Europe’s Economy Powering Stock Rally  Yahoo Finance

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ECB member warns of deflationary impact from U.S. tariffs on Europe Investing.com -- The tariffs imposed by the U.S. administration are expected to lead to a deflationary impact on European economies, according to Mario Centeno, a member of the European Central Bank (ECB). Centeno expressed his concerns on Friday, stating that the inflation rate in the euro area is anticipated to approach 1% in early 2026. Centeno also touched upon the rate reduction cycle, which he believes is likely to continue throughout 2025. However, he stated that the pace of this cycle is uncertain and would be determined at each meeting. The ECB member emphasized the fragility of the economy in the euro area, which he said is already experiencing the deflationary effects of the U.S. administration’s tariff policy. Centeno pointed out that the current inflation rate in the euro zone is below 2%, and he anticipates this downward trend to worsen until the start of next year. At that point, he expects it to approach a concerning level of 1%, or slightly above that. "This is a scenario that should alert us," Centeno said during a press conference, highlighting the potential risks associated with such economic conditions. His statements underscore the potential challenges facing the European economy in the wake of U.S. tariff policies. This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

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17/20 Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski counters that Europe is the future great power: "We're a $19 trillion economy. Russia will be a trillion-dollar economy."

#EuropeEconomy #PolishPerspective

US tariffs, Europe slowdown reshape global solar panels trade SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Solar panel makers in Laos and Indonesia, mostly owned by Chinese firms, boosted their share in the U.S. market after steep tariffs hit exports from other Southeast Asian countries including Cambodia and Thailand, trade data showed. The U.S. government finalised steep levies on imports of solar cells and modules from Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia in April, following two rounds of tariffs in June and November last year, to prevent dumping by mostly Chinese-owned factories in these countries. However, Chinese companies have moved their production to Indonesia and Laos and boosted exports to the United States, Reuters reporting showed. The combined share for Indonesia and Laos in the U.S. solar modules market rose to 29% in the three months after the second round of U.S. duties were imposed on neighbouring producers in late November, from less than 1% in 2023, a Reuters review of U.S. trade data showed. Analysts and industry experts say the southeast Asian capacities owned by Chinese companies were almost exclusively set up to sidestep tariffs and supply the U.S. markets at premiums to global prices, exposing the limits of Washington’s trade interventions. Yana Hryshko, head of global solar supply chain research at consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said all solar manufacturing capacity in the four Southeast Asian countries hit with high tariffs would now likely "be shut down or reduced dramatically". CHANGING TRADE ROUTES Solar panel exports from Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia to the U.S. fell by 33% on an annual basis in the nine months since the first round of tariffs in June. In the same period, exports from regional neighbours Indonesia and Laos grew around eight-fold, the trade data showed. Overall U.S. solar panel imports have fallen 26% since June, with the four countries’ combined share of the market plunging from 82% in the full year 2024 to 54% in the three months following the second round of tariffs in late November. U.S. imports of solar cells, which can be assembled in the United States to create panels, have tripled since the first round of tariffs despite higher costs of imports from the targeted countries. However, Indonesia and Laos still ate into the market as their exports surged about 17-fold. Solar cells accounted for roughly 28% of all U.S. solar imports since the first round of tariffs, compared with 6.5% in 2023, the data showed. Chinese manufacturers are already revising export strategies due to concerns about tariffs on Indonesia and Laos, said Fei Chen, solar research analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy. "Several solar manufacturers plan to set up production bases in non-Southeast Asia regions such as Turkiye, Oman, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Ethiopia, to supply the U.S. market," she said. Factories in China, mostly shut out of the U.S. market for over a decade by high import duties, have been boosting solar panel sales to Asia and Africa, data from energy think-tank Ember showed. Total Chinese exports have remained steady despite lower demand due to high stockpiles in Europe - its biggest market.

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Analysis-Investors seek new tariff-proof market niches as Wall St chaos hits Europe LONDON (Reuters) -Investors who rushed out of Wall Street during a month of U.S. policy shocks that raised European growth risks are turning their attention to niche markets such as Latin American currencies and gold mining stocks in a new bid to out-run trade angst. After President Donald Trump’s April 2 Liberation Day bombshell pummelled domestic stocks and the dollar, European equities that initially attracted capital fleeing the U.S. have been hit by a surging euro that threatens exports. As Trump’s budget plans rock confidence further and European industry braces for a deluge of cheap Chinese imports, investors running large global portfolios said traditionally volatile emerging markets and esoteric credit felt relatively safe, for now. "We expect the riskiness or volatility of emerging market assets and developed market assets to converge," said Pictet Asset Management multi-asset co-head Shaniel Ramjee. He had bought Brazilian local currency debt and Australian and Canadian gold mining shares this month, he said, and believed emerging market stocks would win over Europe as funds continued flowing out of the U.S. Principal Asset Management’s fixed income CIO Mike Goosay said that with traditional havens like U.S. Treasuries under stress, securitised debt, private credit and emerging market bonds offered "attractive risk-adjusted opportunities." SLIM PICKINGS Investors long used to herding into U.S. assets now lack consensus about what to favour instead, a JPMorgan survey of 1,000 attendees at last week’s IMF/World Bank meetings showed, with a quarter picking cash as their preferred asset. Emerging markets were the next most popular choice, despite the strong blows U.S. recessions can deal to developing nations. As Wall Street shares slump to their third straight monthly loss, the dollar hits three-year lows and the euro’s 10% rise in two months halts a European equity rally, smaller markets usually considered higher risk are booming. Mexican stocks rose almost 14% in April after initially dropping on Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement and as traders wagered on the nation escaping White House’s ire, which is currently focused on China. An almost 3% April gain has pulled a Latin American currency index 12% higher year-to-date. Fidelity International portfolio manager Ian Samson said he expected U.S. assets to stay "very, very volatile," while Europe’s growth prospects were fading and stock market valuations were no longer cheap. Bank of America estimates European shares, down 2% in April, may drop another 10% in coming months. Samson named India, where improving U.S. trade relations are attracting overseas investors despite growing tensions with Pakistan, as his favoured global market. Aberdeen investment director Gabriel Sacks said he liked Saudi Arabian shares, up 6% in the past three weeks after Trump imposed a minimum 10% tariff on the oil producing kingdom. STRESSED HAVENS Japan’s yen gained more than 4% against the dollar this month, gold hit a record $3,500 an ounce on April 22 and Germany’s 10-year government bond yield fell to about 195 basis points below comparable Treasuries days ago. "The scale of the money coming out (of the U.S.) is too large for the safe havens the money is going into, Goshawk Asset Management portfolio manager Simon Edelsten said. The supply of high-rated non-U.S. government bonds is near record lows, meaning the euro would keep rising, Morgan Stanley strategists said. "(Euro) appreciation will exacerbate the negative impact of higher tariffs on demand for exports, worsening the growth outlook," Invesco senior fixed income manager Michael Siviter said. BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) Asset Management senior cross-asset strategist Sophie Huynh said bets on the Swiss National Bank moving to weaken the franc and the yen’s bounce had turned into "widow-making trades." She was also unenthusiastic about major equity markets excepting China, where stocks have jumped about 5% in three weeks as investors pinned their hopes on government stimulus. But after a month of global markets spinning in new directions with every shift in White House rhetoric, the fervour about European defence spending that gripped investors until late March could return, some investors said. "My base case is that the U.S. policy mix that is in place today is different in a few months’ time," Ninety One multi-asset credit manager Justin Jewell said. "And simultaneously, a global desire to invest less in the U.S. is for Europe surely a good outcome."

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Analysis-Unexpected euro surge adds to Europe Inc’s tariff misery Blog Mobile Portfolio Widgets About Us Advertise Help & Support Authors Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed. Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website. Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

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Goldman Sachs cuts 12-month Europe’s STOXX 600 forecast © Reuters.FILE PHOTO: People work at the trading floor of the Euronext stock exchange in the La Defense business district in Paris, France, March 10, 2025. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo STOXX 0.00% (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month price forecast for Europe’s benchmark STOXX 600 stock index, citing the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. The Wall Street brokerage trimmed its forecast to 570 from 580 earlier, it said in a note on Monday. 0 Latest comments 1D 1W 1M 6M 1Y 5Y Max US 30 41,863.00 -138.4 -0.33% US 500 5,588.30 -23.6 -0.42% Dow Jones 42,001.76 +417.86 +1.00% S&P 500 5,611.85 +30.91 +0.55% Nasdaq 17,299.29 -23.70 -0.14% S&P 500 VIX 22.28 +0.63 +2.91% Dollar Index 103.73 -0.153 -0.15% Most Popular Articles News Analysis Asia stocks rise tracking Wall St ahead of Trump tariffs; RBA holds rates By Investing.co... Apr 01, 2025 TSX closes higher with Trump’s expected April 2 tariff announcement in focus By Investing.co... Mar 31, 2025 Stock market today: S&P 500 in Q1 loss despite jump; ’liberation day’ tariffs loom By Investing.co... Mar 31, 2025 History shows S&P 500 does well in April after a weak March, BTIG says By Investing.co... Mar 31, 2025 Bitcoin price today: steady at $82k ahead of Trump tariffs By Investing.co... Mar 31, 2025 More News Market Movers Name Last Chg. % Vol. NVDA 108.38 -1.18% 299.21M TSLA 259.16 -1.67% 134.01M PLTR 84.40 -1.69% 108.09M AAPL 222.13 +1.94% 65.30M AMZN 190.26 -1.28% 63.55M MSFT 375.39 -0.90% 35.18M META 576.36 -0.07% 21.12M Trending Stocks Name Last Chg. % Vol. TSLA 259.16 -1.67% 134.01M NVDA 108.38 -1.18% 299.21M PLTR 84.40 -1.69% 108.09M AMZN 190.26 -1.28% 63.55M AAPL 222.13 +1.94% 65.30M Show more Install Our AppScan QR code to install app Google Play App Store Blog Mobile Portfolio Widgets About Us Advertise Help & Support Authors Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed. Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website. Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

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Make Europe Great Again trades are gaining traction LONDON (Reuters) - A more independent, less U.S.-reliant Europe is taking shape and investors sense opportunities in a long-shunned region that go beyond just snapping up defence shares. Yes, there is reason for caution since massive German spending on defence and infrastructure will take time to be felt. Yet many are playing the long game. "It seems that MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) trades are now rapidly replacing MAGA trades, which have lost their appeal," said Mark Dowding, CIO at RBC’s BlueBay fixed income team, referring to U.S. President Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again movement. 1/ DEFENCE FIRST Brussels’ plan to mobilise up to 800 billion euros ($866 billion) for rearmament and German fiscal expansion mean defence stocks remain fertile ground for investors, even after their surge since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. European aerospace and defence stocks have gained 33% this year, and valuation multiples have topped those of U.S. peers, reaching levels associated with luxury or tech. Tankmaker Rheinmetall (ETR:RHMG) was briefly more expensive than Ferrari this month, trading at 44 times its expected earnings, highlighting investor willingness to pay a premium for exposure to this long-term trend. Defence companies’ expected average yearly profit growth to 2028 range from 8% for BAE to 32% for Rheinmetall, Citi estimates. The European Union wants to buy more European arms, but it’s a challenge. Since 2022, 78% of EU procurement has gone outside the bloc, with 63% to the U.S., European Commission data show. And after a broad rally, some advise caution. Vontobel fund manager Markus Hansen believes investors should focus on areas with real and pressing demand such as rebuilding depleted ammunition stockpiles and infantry-related equipment. Defence supply chain firms and other sectors including communications meanwhile could benefit. Eutelsat has surged 260% this month, driven by suggestions the Franco-British satellite operator could replace Elon Musk’s Starlink in providing internet access to Ukraine. "Apart from weaponry, defence is also about logistics, data and communication, and personnel. It’s a comprehensive value chain where suppliers play an important role," Evli portfolio manager Tomas Hildebrandt said. Truckmaker Scania, a unit of Traton, Atlas (NYSE:ATCO) Copco, which makes machinery for infrastructure and industrial projects, and construction companies in general, are possible examples, he said. 2/ HEY BOND Whether it’s joint EU bonds or more German debt, a wider pool of triple-A rated bonds that supports the euro’s reserve currency status is coming. Germany’s historic infrastructure and defence spending could add up to more than a trillion euros of additional debt. What’s more, the EU plans to jointly borrow up to 150 billion euros backing loans to member states to help increase defence spending, a move even proponents didn’t anticipate just months ago. The bonds backing the programme, dubbed SAFE, will boost the EU’s roughly 650-billion-euro debt pile. It’s a sign the bloc might become a more permanent borrower as investors have long hoped, stepping up to another challenge after its vast COVID-19 recovery fund. The loans, however, are just a small share of the total 800-billion-euro plan, leaving the rest to national governments. 3/ BANKING ON IT European banks are popular as the fiscal boost brightens the economic outlook, and have surged 26% year-to-date in their best quarter since 2020. Germany’s economy should expand roughly 1.4% in 2026 and 2027 after almost four years of stagnation, Berenberg estimates. A March BofA fund manager survey showed banks and insurance are the largest sector overweights in Europe, followed by industrials. "We’re positive on banks as higher growth expectations should steepen the (bond) yield curve, which would benefit banks and really spur credit growth," said GlobalX senior investment analyst Trevor Yates, noting the firm has seen strong interest in its DAX German stocks ETF. Investors also expect European regulators will ease rules for banks given a U.S. deregulation drive. BlueBay’s Dowding said European bank capital bonds were the firm’s largest overweight position in multi-asset credit funds. 4/ PERIPHERAL WINS Spanish and Italian equities are significantly cheaper than those in core Europe, says Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) multi-asset strategist Manish Kabra, leaving them poised for gains. Southern European stocks are also proportionally less exposed to U.S. tariffs than Germany or France and have a large exposure to banks. "There are parallel things going on. One is the German debt brake and for that (mid-cap) MDAX and long euro is your trade, the other is banking regulation, and European nominal GDP growth, both of which impact banks," Kabra said. "That is exactly what the periphery of Europe provides." 5/ RENEWABLE Europe’s push to become more energy independent, starting in 2022, is expected to continue, with renewable energy and home-based power firms benefiting, analysts said. The European Commission has put forward an Action Plan to speed up permits for renewable energy projects, change how energy tariffs are set, and increase state aid for clean industries and more flexible power generation. And 100 billion euros of Germany’s planned spending increase will be channelled into climate and economic transformation. European utility firms Iberdola, Endesa (BME:ELE) and Enel (BIT:ENEI) have rallied 7-16% so far this year.

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Analysis-Trump’s erratic tariff policy shakes confidence in Europe’s market bull run About Us Advertise Help & Support Authors Blog Mobile Portfolio Widgets Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed. Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website. Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

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Germany: Auto giant Audi to slash 7,500 jobs from workforce 🇩🇪 #europeeconomy #business #Audi #china www.dw.com/en/germany-a...