#TPLF readies itself for #war as it wants to consolidate its power in #Tigray against southerners loyal to #Getachew & #Abiy. #Addis is worried as this would be a serious strategic blow at a time where its already isolated regionally & #Trump is backing #Egypt openly. #Asmara #AU #Israeli #Houthis
#Abiy’s🇪🇹 non response when the #TPLF ousted #Getachew from #Tigray & the opening of the border w #Eritrea cements the view that he has lost Tigray without a fight. #Addis is either unwilling but more likely incapable to fight TPLF without #Asmara’s help. #Sudan #Somalia #Houthis #Yemen #Khartoum
The fed gov of #Ethiopia🇪🇹 tries retaining control over #Tigray by naming former #Tigrayan pres #Getachew a member of his cabinet & naming #Werede as the new pres of #Tigray. Werede has to comply w a 8 point deal of #Abiy. #TPLF has welcomed Werede in #Mekelle. #Eritrea #Asmara #Amhara #Somalia
#Abiy seems to have put his bets on the wrong horse in #Getachew & keeps his channels open w #Debretsion. Abiy partly succeeded in splitting the #Tigrayans but didnt expect #TPLF D to come out so strong. This destabilizes Abiy’s northern flank & reduces #Ethiopia’s regional clout
If #Abiy🇪🇹 cant help #Getachew the potential consequences are huge: political humiliation where he cuts a deal w #TPLF or inaction, both of which deepens #Ethiopia’s fragmentation as #Amhara #Fano & #Oromo #OLA will feel his weakness. Control over #Tigray will be gone. #Eritrea
Reports indicate #TPLF dismantled the #Tigray interim gov🇪🇹 in #Adigrat & several villages and now has besieged #Mekelle which led to #Getachew fleeing. He left his supporters & interim gov officials behind to face TPLF which seem to have the upperhand, militarily & logistically. #Eritrea #Asmara
