Today's war is another example. "We are here in many ways because the Iranians have been chanting 'Death to America' for 47 years. I used to say, 'I don't think this is helpful.' " Western interlocutors and intermediaries would respond that the regime didn't really mean it. "Well, if they don't mean it, then don't say it. Stop. But they never would," he says. "To be honest, I think they got away with things for so long that they got used to it."
They didn't count on a president who would break from standard operating procedure, whom they couldn't stall until the next U.S. election. Mr. Ansari says Iran had every chance to avert war. But it lost Europe by siding with Russia in Ukraine, and it refused to make a plausible offer when Mr. Trump returned to office. "The longer they waited, the worse it got. They could've gotten a deal six months ago. But when ships are waiting outside, the asking price goes up." The regime insisted throughout on a "right to enrich uranium"-which "would have more credibility if they respected any other rights as well," Mr. Ansari cracks. "We often think of the Iranians as very strategic thinkers, playing the long game. No, no. It's different. They're ditherers," he says. "We ascribe to them too much competence. I do not consider what's happening now to be the result of great strategic thinking." He points to a "dogmatic ideology and a grievance culture, whereby they've taken a hit for their nuclear program and can't back down." In his assessment, by sheer stubbornness, the regime "basically decided to declare war on the U.S." l The failure to see that, and so much else, can be attributed to the prevailing "Washington-centered analysis," Mr. Ansari says. "We always see Iran as almost marginal to the problem, which is Washington." If only Mr. Trump hadn't done this or that, the commentators rage. But if there is now an opening for regime change, it is because U.S. policymakers for once were able to turn from the mirror and see what the Iranian people know well: The problem is in Iran.
Is Iran on the brink of another revolution?
The regime faces a crisis like never before, historian Ali M. Ansari explains, and the nation has an 120-year tradition of fighting to establish the rule of law. archive.ph/pDQfL By Elliot Kaufman #HistoricalPoliticalMemory #Islamism #IranWar