With the #JobsDay data there are criticisms about the increase in unemployment, but labor-oriented recession indicators, like the @claudia-sahm.bsky.social rule, Modified U6 #SahmRule, the #MichezRule, still do not point to a downturn.

A bad or weakening economy is not the same thing as recession.

When you look at the popular recession indicators: the #SahmRule, by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, the #MichezRule, by Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez, which adds job vacancy data, and the U6 Modified Sahm Rule, by M. Sheppard, using underemployment data shows downturns sooner.

When you compare the #SahmRule by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, the #MichezRule by P. Michaillat and E. Saez, and the U6 Modified Sahm Rule, it shows that recessionary calls are premature but that the labor market has weakness particularly on the intensive margin. #JobsReport #EconSky

With the #JobsReport out: no clear recession signal. The Sahm Rule, the Michez Rule, and my U6-Modified Sahm Rule (most sensitive to slack) haven’t triggered.

There is a impulse by some to look for recessionary conclusions, when the reality is the economy just sucks.
#SahmRule #MichezRule