Bayesian Sensitivity of Causal Inference Estimators under Evidence-Based Priors

Nikita Dhawan, Daniel Shen, Leonardo Cotta, Chris J. Maddison

Action editor: Amit Sharma

https://openreview.net/forum?id=0zqt85NUyK

#causal #sensitivity #priors

\textsc{PGO-BEN}: Proxy-Guided Orthogonalization and Beta Ensembling for Few-Shot Domain-Incremen...

Samrat Mukherjee, Thivyanth Venkateswaran, Eric Nuertey Coleman et al.

Action editor: Lijun Zhang

https://openreview.net/forum?id=jlb27FbHLv

#forgetting #priors #adapting

Unexamined #priors are not worth having.

Learning few-step posterior samplers by unfolding and distillation of diffusion models

Charlesquin Kemajou Mbakam, Marcelo Pereyra, Jonathan Spence

Action editor: Trevor Campbell

https://openreview.net/forum?id=oGCfD8YKN2

#mcmc #priors #unfolding

AND NOW: THIS — TWO MISTAKES WHEN FLIRTING

A brief mathematical #theorem as to why sexual interest often go awry; all human interaction contains a degree of #probability.

#Math is life.
#Life is math.
Get to class.

#Bayesian #deterministic #priors
#behavior #context #CulturalNorms #flirtation

Prior Specification for Exposure-based Bayesian Matrix Factorization

Zicong Zhu, Issei Sato

Action editor: Seungjin Choi

https://openreview.net/forum?id=o5R4Hv9XqC

#priors #prior #hyperparameters

Bayesian workflow: Prior determination, predictive checks and sensitivity analyses | Pablo Bernabeu This post presents a run-through of a Bayesian workflow in R. The content is closely based on Bernabeu (2022), which was in turn based on lots of other references, also cited here.

#statstab #466 Bayesian workflow: Prior determination, predictive checks and sensitivity analyses

Thoughts: Having a good bayesian work flow can be challenging with complex models.

#priors #bayesian #sensitivityanalysis #posterior #ppc #brms

pablobernabeu.github.io/2022/bayesia...

Getting Comfortable with Expressing Beliefs as Distributions – Brian Lookabaugh Thinking about our beliefs as distributions is not super intuitive for most people, which creates a stumbling blog for getting into Bayesian statistics. Check this blog out to break down the mystique!

#statstab #459 Getting Comfortable with Expressing Beliefs as Distributions

Thoughts: Bayesian stats requires a good understanding of priors, but these are often unintuitive. Plots help.

#bayesian #priors #ggplot #r #dataviz #learing #education

brian-lookabaugh.github.io/website-bria...

Bruh I fuckin wish. Cheapest available when I looked was 200 a pop also I got #priors

What are credible priors and what are skeptical priors? A few weeks ago Dan Scharfstein asked a group of colleagues about how to report an odds ratio of 1.70 with 95% confidence limits of 0.96 and 3.02. Back-calculating from these statistics gives a two-si...

#statstab #445 What are credible priors and what are skeptical priors?

Thoughts: An excellent thread on prior elicitation by some of the big names in the field (frequentist and bayesian).

#priors #bayesian #bayes #likelihood #medicine #clinical #debate

discourse.datamethods.org/t/what-are-c...

Incorporating Historical Control Data Into an RCT – Statistical Thinking Historical data (HD) are being used increasingly in Bayesian analyses when it is difficult to randomize enough patients to study effectiveness of a treatment. Such analyses summarize observational stu...

#statstab #427 Incorporating Historical Control Data Into an RCT

Thoughts: In frequentist stats, historical controls are a dangerous proposition. But in bayesian, they may have a more useful purpose.

#historicalcontrol #rct #bayesian #bias #priors #BMA

www.fharrell.com/post/hxcontr...

Very interesting the hoops jumped by certain people when it comes to Russ versus #priors confirming that Geno is the devil.

On Bayes factors for hypothesis tests - Psychonomic Bulletin & Review We develop alternative families of Bayes factors for use in hypothesis tests as alternatives to the popular default Bayes factors. The alternative Bayes factors are derived for the statistical analyse...

#statstab #402 On Bayes factors for hypothesis tests {emBayes Factor}

Thoughts: On bsky there were renewed debates about BFs. This paper provides "better" priors (mixture t centred on the ES). Also some p-value BFs

#bayesian #bayesfactor #priors #cohend

link.springer.com/article/10.3...

Prior probability - Wikipedia

Certainly too many are, complicating public policy discussions. It is continuously necessary to work around the publics prior assumptions.

I am now getting sidetracked skimming:

#Priors #PriorAssumptions #PriorProbability

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prior_p...

A Vector Bernstein Inequality for Self-Normalized Martingales

Ingvar Ziemann

Action editor: Jasper C.H. Lee

https://openreview.net/forum?id=4ZJjr9YbBw

#martingales #bernstein #priors

Removing Structured Noise using Diffusion Models

Tristan Stevens, Hans van Gorp, Faik C Meral et al.

Action editor: Valentin De Bortoli

https://openreview.net/forum?id=BvKYsaOVEn

#adversarial #generative #priors

Population Priors for Matrix Factorization

Sohrab Salehi, Achille Nazaret, Sohrab P Shah, David Blei

Action editor: Tom Rainforth

https://openreview.net/forum?id=AT9G5s1pOj

#factorization #priors #prior

Universal Functional Regression with Neural Operator Flows

Yaozhong Shi, Angela F Gao, Zachary E Ross, Kamyar Azizzadenesheli

Action editor: Mauricio A Álvarez

https://openreview.net/forum?id=rHL329Xa3X

#gaussian #priors #functional

Diffusion Models with Deterministic Normalizing Flow Priors

Mohsen Zand, Ali Etemad, Michael Greenspan

Action editor: Jakub Tomczak

https://openreview.net/forum?id=ACMNVwcR6v

#denoising #diffusion #priors

Improving Generalization of Complex Models under Unbounded Loss Using PAC-Bayes Bounds

Xitong Zhang, Avrajit Ghosh, Guangliang Liu, Rongrong Wang

Action editor: Benjamin Guedj

https://openreview.net/forum?id=MP8bmxvWt6

#regularization #priors #hyperparameters

Tweedie Moment Projected Diffusions for Inverse Problems

Benjamin Boys, Mark Girolami, Jakiw Pidstrigach et al.

Action editor: Jasper Snoek

https://openreview.net/forum?id=4unJi0qrTE

#tweedie #diffusion #priors

Frontiers | Using Bayes to get the most out of non-significant results No scientific conclusion follows automatically from a statistically non-significant result, yet people routinely use non-significant results to guide conclus...

#statstab #236 Using Bayes to get the most out of non-significant results

Thoughts: A bayesian way to investigate "no effect": Bayes Factors. Cool guide on how to think about priors (post hoc even).

#priors #bayesfactors #nullresults #equivalence #nhbt

www.frontiersin.org/journals/psy...

Interesting piece on the #PredictiveProcessing
commonalities between delusions and #beliefs, involving cues and pattern matching with #priors

Also different delusions may have different threshold points for belief evaluation

#PsychSciSky #CogPsych

Login • Instagram Welcome back to Instagram. Sign in to check out what your friends, family & interests have been capturing & sharing around the world.

The studio is alive again. #25DaysOfMinis #25DaysofMinis2024 #oilpaintingonlinen #DeviInChief #GâteauBerceuse #Seasonals #MonoFleurs #Priors #chateauoart

www.instagram.com/reel/DCxTsLv...

#statstab #229 Prior Modeling
by @betanalpha

Thoughts: Thorough overview of the prior elicitation process and ways to think about priors.

#stats #priors #probability #metascience #bayes #bayesian

betanalpha.github.io/assets/case_...

3  Model setup & priors – Applied Modelling in Drug Development

#statstab #228 Applied Modelling in Drug Development - Setting priors in {brms}

Thoughts: Part of a larger book, useful bit for understanding how to set priors & check them for bayesian models & meta-analyses

#stats #brms #priors #metaanalysis #bayesian

opensource.nibr.com/bamdd/src/01...

#statstab #169 {priorsense} prior diagnostics and sensitivity analysis

Thoughts: Bayesian modelling requires more scrutiny of how one's choices impact outcomes. This packages has handy functions + plots.

#brms #bayesian #rstan #priors
#mcmc #diagnostics

n-kall.github.io/priorsense/

VideoDrome, by PRIORS from the album MY PUNISHMENT ON EARTH

🔊 #NowPlaying on #KEXP's #SonicReducer

Priors:
🎵 Videodrome

#Priors

▶️ 🪄 Automagic 🔊 show 📻 playlist on Spotify
▶️ Song on #Bandcamp:

#statstab #66 Ordinal Regression in #R

Thoughts: Nice tutorial. I liked the visualisation of the potential priors. It's good to think of how ordinal data might be distributed.

#rstats #brms #priors #ordinal #bayesian

tdunn.ca/posts/2020-0...