Mechanism-Dependent Sensitivity in Early Warning Signals: Boundary Conditions of Ratio-Based Composite Indicators This preprint investigates the behavior of ratio-based composite early warning indicators of the form T(t) = R(t)/Φ(t) in complex dynamical systems. Here, R(t) represents adaptive response capacity, w...

Classical #EarlyWarningSignals messen Amplitude …

aber was passiert mit der Struktur eines Systems vor dem Kollaps?

Ratio-basierte Indikatoren sind nicht „besser“, sondern messen eine andere Klasse von Information …

mit klaren Grenzen und Konsequenzen für ihre Anwendung.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno... 🖖

Singularization Framework v4: Bifurcation Structure, Stochastic Collapse, and Early Warning Signals in the CRTI Minimal Model This paper presents Version 4 of the Singularization Framework, a minimal dynamical theory of structural collapse in complex adaptive systems. The framework introduces three state variables — Structur...

Collapse rarely begins with chaos …

it begins when systems become too stable to adapt.

#CRTIv4 shows how bifurcation structure, stochastic escape, & early-warning signals reveal the collapse basin before the tipping point.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

#CRTI #ComplexSystems #EarlyWarningSignals 🖖

Excited to share our work in collaboration with @pik-potsdam.bsky.social and National Physical Laboratory, published in Scientific Reports. We show that early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidly.
10.1038/s41598-025-06525-5
#Tipping #EarlyWarningSignals #ComplexSystems #IITmadras

Way past #earlywarningsignals

#mathematicalModelling #drylandClimate #FairyCircles #phenology #badlands #AI #ML #NDVI #feedbackMechanisms #runoff #MCMCalgorithms #diffusion #bifurcations #tippingpoints #earlyWarningSignals

Key point: Antiseizure medication efficacy assessment based on change in seizure frequency is influenced by intrinsic seizure variability, especially at low SFs;
doi.org/10.1111/epi....

#epilepsy #epilepsia #ilae #complexsystems #earlywarningsignals #nonlinearanalysis #RQA #seizuresusceptibility