Canadian dollar forecasts grow more bullish as BoC easing cycle nears an end - Reuters Poll By Fergal Smith TORONTO (Reuters) -The Canadian dollar is set to strengthen over the coming year as the Bank of Canada potentially cuts interest rates just two more times in the current easing campaign and expected rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve help stimulate Canada’s economy, a Reuters poll found. The median forecast of 32 foreign exchange analysts in the August 29-September 3 poll predicted the loonie would strengthen 1.4% to 1.36 per U.S. dollar, or 73.53 U.S. cents, in three months, compared with the 1.37 level expected in a survey last month. In 12 months, the currency was forecast to gain 2.8% to 1.3415, versus 1.35 seen previously. Investors expect the BoC to resume its easing campaign at a policy decision on September 17 and are pricing in roughly 40 basis points of easing in total by the end of 2026. The central bank has left its benchmark rate on hold at 2.75% since March, having eased by a cumulative 225 basis points since June 2024. "The BoC is close to done with cutting rates, while the Fed is yet to start in earnest, and we suspect the FOMC is likely to surprise markets with the quantum of rates cuts that they ultimately deliver," said Nick Rees, senior FX market analyst at Monex Europe Ltd. "Combine this with positive spillovers to Canadian growth, and we see plenty of scope for the loonie to make gains against the greenback in the coming 12 months." 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including oil and autos. The U.S. has imposed a 35% tariff on goods from Canada but the vast majority of products are exempt from duties under a continental trade pact. Fiscal spending on defense and other items could also boost Canada’s economy, say analysts. Canada has been dealing with economic uncertainty since the start of the year, so the primary focus of the federal budget, due to be presented in October, will be to cut operational spending and funnel investments into major projects, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Wednesday. (Other stories from the Reuters September foreign exchange poll) AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes dozens of winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. Year to date, 3 out of 4 global portfolios are beating their benchmark indexes, with 98% in the green. Our flagship Tech Titans strategy doubled the S&P 500 within 18 months, including notable winners like Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). Which stock will be the next to soar?

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Bloomberg: The underlying context of a #Fed that was already moving toward a more classic #easingcycle may help to explain why #markets are so far responding with relative calm to Trump’s attempt to remove #Cook. #Investors were already expecting a steeper curve, with 2-year #yields set to slide.

RBI’s inflation, growth outlook may mean end of easing cycle, some analysts say By Dharamraj Dhutia MUMBAI (Reuters) -The Reserve Bank of India (NSE:BOI)’s inflation and growth outlook suggest the current policy rate may mark the end of the easing cycle, six analysts said on Wednesday, after the central bank held rates steady and kept its growth forecast unchanged. The RBI has trimmed its key policy rate by 100 basis points since February. While a Reuters poll had predicted one more 25 basis points cut this cycle, some analysts are now reassessing that view. "Given the characterisation of monetary policy in the August meeting and the growth and inflation forecasts, we do not find much scope for an immediate rate cut," said Samiran Chakraborty, chief economist at Citi. The bank, which had earlier expected a 25 basis points cut in August, now sees the repo rate holding at 5.50% this cycle, up from its previous forecast of 5.25%. The RBI retained its Jan–March inflation outlook at 4.4% and projects a rise to 4.9% in April–June 2026. India’s retail inflation fell to a more than six-year low of 2.1% in June and is expected to hit a record low in July. Data is due to be released on August 12. However, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the sharp fall in headline inflation was driven by volatile food prices and is likely to pick up toward year-end. "One year ahead, factoring in the April–June inflation forecast at 4.9% and the repo rate at 5.5%, the real rate buffer will narrow significantly. The terminal rate is likely to stay at 5.5% this year," said Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Bank. Analysts at Capital Economics, Bank of Baroda (NSE:BOB), Kotak Securities and Edelweiss Mutual Fund also said the central bank may have ended its easing cycle. "There is little in today’s policy announcement to change our view that the easing cycle has come to an end," said Shilan Shah, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. Don't miss out on the next big opportunity! Stay ahead of the curve with ProPicks – 6 model portfolios fueled by AI stock picks with a stellar performance this year.. In 2024 alone, ProPicks' AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech Stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies. So if BOI is on your watchlist, it could be very wise to know whether or not it made the ProPicks lists.

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2/4 With a focus on growth, the RBI adapts to domestic conditions, signalling that further easing may be on the horizon. 📊 But caution is necessary, as markets now expect extended rate cuts. #EasingCycle

1 CIBC: The #Fed skipped Neil Armstrong’s small step, and went for the giant leap in launching into its #easingcycle, perhaps making up for a bit of a late start in that process. 🧵
#FOMC #interestrates