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Hashtag
#ep2024
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Silver lining for left-wing parties: For the first time since the #EP2024 election, none of the three left-of-centre groups are losing seats in the #EPseatprojection.
Meanwhile, the Liberals are suffering a severe setback. And a Bulgarian newcomer party is on the rise.
By MANUEL MÜLLER
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The issues that political parties talk about are often different from those that voters consider important – especially when it comes to the EU. This opens a door for extremists.
By ALEX HARTLAND, DANIELA BRAUN, GIUSEPPE CARTENY, ROSA M. NAVARRETE, ANN-KATHRIN REINL
#ActEU #politicaltrust #EP2024
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Die Themen, über die Parteien sprechen, sind oft nicht die, die Wähler:innen für wichtig halten – gerade wenn es um die EU geht. Das öffnet Extremist:innen ein Einfallstor.
Von ALEX HARTLAND, DANIELA BRAUN, GIUSEPPE CARTENY, ROSA M. NAVARRETE, ANN-KATHRIN REINL
#ActEU #politischesVertrauen #EP2024
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Der (europäische) Föderalist, most-read articles in 2025
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Out now: The 2024 European Parliament Elections – A Turn to the Right in the Shadow of War
By MANUEL MÜLLER
@manuelmueller.foederalist.eu
#EP2024
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Timo is also the author of the chapter on the Israel-Palestine conflict in the #EP2024 elections volume that Michael Kaeding, @alexhoppe.bsky.social and I co-edited earlier this year:
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Der Sammelband zur #EP2024 ist jetzt auch in deutscher Sprache erschienen. Mein Beitrag analysiert mithilfe der FPS-Methode, wie sich die Kräfteverhältnisse im Europäischen Parlament in einer vollständig erweiterten EU verändern könnten. 👉 doi.org/10.1007/978-... #EUEnlargement #EUErweiterung
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Ein geschlossenes Buch auf einem Tisch. Auf dem Deckblatt steht: Michael Kaeding, Manuel Müller, Alexander Hoppe (Hrsg.): Die Europawahl 2024 Rechtsruck im Schatten des Krieges Springer VS
Ein aufgeschlagenes Buch. Auf der rechten Seite beginnt ein neues Kapitel: Wie viele Stimmen sind nötig, um einen Sitz zu gewinnen? Verzerrungen Der Wahlgleichheit bei der Europawahl 2024 Manuel Müller
Wochenendlektüre ist angekommen!
#Europawahlsammelband #EP2024
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Frisch erschienen: Den Sammelband zur #Europawahl 2024, den ich zusammen mit Michael Kaeding und Alex Hoppe (@alexhoppe.bsky.social) herausgegeben habe, gibt es jetzt endlich auch in deutscher Fassung.
67 Expert:innen beleuchten in 38 Kapiteln eine Vielzahl von Aspekten der Wahl.
#EP2024
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🚨 War! The Far Right! The Far Left! And Populism on all fronts! 🚨 Here's an open access book about the 2024 European election 🇪🇺 🗳️ #ep2024. With a tiny bit of input from yours truly on the 🇩🇪 car wreck doi.org/10.55271/rp0059
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New chapter preview video:
TIMO R. STEWART analyses how the #Israel-Palestine conflict was covered in the #EP2024 electoral manifestos of national parties. He identifies national particularities in some member states as well as a clear left-right partisan divide.
@timostewart.bsky.social
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New chapter preview video:
MANUEL MÜLLER analyses distortions of #electoralequality in the #EP2024 election: Why did some parties need far fewer votes than others to win a seat? And how did this affect the balance of power between political groups?
@manuelmueller.foederalist.eu
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Before #EP2024, I predicted the far right to gain power in EU institutions "not through sweeping victory, but creeping normalisation":
fiia.fi/en/publicati...
Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe".
I wish I'd been more wrong.
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New chapter preview video:
EVA HEIDBREDER and DANIEL SCHADE analyse the competition between EP and Council in the #Spitzenkandidaten procedure after the #EP2024 election: Third time’s a charm?
#EUleadcandidates
@egheidbreder.bsky.social
@danielschade.bsky.social
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New chapter preview:
RUTH BERKOWITZ, LIESA DÖPCKE and SAMMY SIEGEL explore factors impacting voter turnout: Did populist parties boost participation? And how does the #EP2024 compare to national elections regarding social differences in turnout?
@ruthberkowitz.bsky.social
@sammysiegel.bsky.social
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New chapter preview video: With the #EP2024 elections, the share of women among MEPs has declined for the first time ever. GABRIELE ABELS has analysed the reasons for this.
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New chapter preview video: MATILDE CERON presents her joint chapter with VERA BELOSHITZKAYA and ZOE LEFKOFRIDI, in which they compare how parties from the economic right dealt with #gender issues in their #EP2024 European manifestos.
@matildecer.bsky.social
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Finally on the table: The volume edited by Michael Kaeding @ifp-ude.bsky.social, @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu and @alexhoppe.bsky.social - including my chapter "From 27 to 37". Some things only feel truly published once you hold them in your hands. doi.org/10.1007/978-... #EP2024 #EP #EUenlargement
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New chapter preview video: TYYNE KARJALAINEN has analysed how national parties and European political groups positioned themselves on EU enlargement during the #EP2024 election campaign.
@tyynekarjalainen.bsky.social
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To give you a sneak preview of the #EP2024 volume, several contributors have created short videos summarising their research.
These videos will be published on this blog over the coming weeks.
First out today: ALEX HOPPE (@alexhoppe.bsky.social) with a general introduction to the book. 👇
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The last European election saw the far right surge to a new record high. But this was not the only story of #EP2024.
A new volume – edited by MICHAEL KAEDING, MANUEL MÜLLER and ALEX HOPPE and comprising 38 chapters from over 60 authors – provides academic analyses of the election's many facets.
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For anyone without institutional access - here's the open #SharedIt link: rdcu.be/ex3pJ #EP2024 #EUenlargement #OpenAccess
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Thanks for the interest! Wrong link earlier - here's a proper #SharedIt version: rdcu.be/ex3pJ #EP2024 #EUenlargement
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📌 Bottom line:
A fully enlarged EP would be more diverse - and more volatile.
Enlargement reshapes EU power dynamics. It requires strategic foresight, not just political will.
Interested? The chapter is available #OpenAccess via @springernature.com
🔗 doi.org/10.1007/978-...
#EP2024 #EUenlargement
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🤝 The centrist "grand coalition" (EPP, S&D, Renew) still leads - but drops from 55.7 % to 53.8 %.
A centre-left bloc incl. Greens/The Left also weakens.
Right-wing coalitions shrink unless non-inscrits join - many of them Eurosceptic or authoritarian.
#EP2024 #EUenlargement (4/5)
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🪑 Major changes in party balance:
S&D: +22 seats (esp. due to #Türkiye)
– EPP: –18
– Greens/EFA: –13
Non-inscrits: from 33 to 111 (!)
Many parties in candidate countries aren't yet linked to EU party families.
→ #EUEnlargement would mean more fragmentation, uncertainty, and complexity.
#EP2024 (3/5)
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📊 Method: the FPS model
→ Fair seat allocation using:
▪️ fixed shares
▪️ population-based shares
▪️ square-root weighting
→ Based on 2024 election results & latest national polls/election data from candidate countries. Enables a realistic EP-37 simulation.
#EP2024 #EUenlargement (2/5)
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📢 The #EP2024 volume edited by Michael Kaeding, Alex Hoppe (@alexhoppe.bsky.social) and myself is now available!
It contains many, many great contributions analysing a broad variety of topics, ranging from party systems to campaign issues to voting behaviour.
Check it out 👇
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A chart shows the number of seats of various possible alliances in the European Parliament over time since 2014 (in the baseline scenario of the seat projection). The alliances shown are ‘grand coalition plus’ (EPP-S&D-RE), ‘grand coalition’ (EPP-S&D), ‘centre-left’ (S&D-RE-G/EFA-Left), ‘centre-right’ (EPP-RE-ECR), ‘right-wing’ (EPP-ECR-PfE-ESN) and ‘far-right’ (ECR-PfE-ESN). A line marks the absolute majority in parliament. The ‘grand coalition plus’ (EPP-S&D-RE) was the strongest alliance represented for a long time, with a clear lead. However, its number of seats gradually decreased. Around the beginning of 2025, it was overtaken by ‘Right’ (EPP-ECR-PfE-ESN). ‘Centre-right’, ‘grand coalition’ and ‘centre-left’ are all well below the line that marks the absolute majority. ‘Far right’ (ECR-PfE-ESN) lags far behind all other alliances shown and achieves around half of an absolute majority. However, ‘far right’ has seen an almost continuous upward trend since around 2017.
The key graphic of the day is this one: While the far-right bloc (ECR+PfE+ESN) has been rising in the seat projection since the #EP2024 election, the von der Leyen alliance (EPP+S&D+RE) has dropped to just above the 50% mark.
The strongest alliance would currently be "Venezuela" (EPP+far right).
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