交易是孤獨的概率遊戲,以上僅為私人筆記,不構成任何投資建議。市場有風險,決策請慎重。
#總經策略 #能源投資 #對沖基金視角 #OilSky
更多底層硬核邏輯,請移步:https://stennis.substack.com/p/5ee?r=x6b3k (3/3)
"I JUST CRUNCHED THE NUMBERS ON TRUMP’S VENEZUELA OIL PLAN — and there’s a huge problem.
Venezuela can’t flood the market. Production is ~1M bpd (not 3M+) and infrastructure needs $100–180B & 10–15 years to rebuild. Nobody’s funding that.
Exxon & Conoco won arbitration
#BlueSky #NewsSky #OilSky 1/
Trump wastes no time gathering Big Oil execs...
Trump wants $100B+ to rebuild Venezuela’s oil sector.
Palacios: “The problem isn’t risky places… it’s not knowing the risk right now.”
Exxon: “Legal protections + guarantees first.”
Ross Perot: "We're very #BlueSky #NewsSky #OilSky
The U.S. wants Venezuelan oil not because it needs more oil — but because it needs HEAVY oil.
Gulf Coast refineries are built for heavy crude. U.S. shale is mostly light.
Venezuela’s oil is dense, sulphur-heavy — closer to tar — hard to extract, hard to refine… #BlueSky #NewsSky #OilSky
only U.S. firm left, heavily constrained. Production? Just 1M barrels/day.
Rebuilding would take $100B + a decade — if political stability even exists.
Oil is there. But you can’t kidnap stability or seize trust. ⛽️🔥 #OilSky
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
#prayeredging #climatechange #oilsky #greatamericanmyths #Ididitallforthemoney #what #thamoney #soyoucantakethathoney #andstickitup #yourass #smearitontheglass #anywhereyoucan #it’shoursofstickyfun #forthewholefamily
#memefield
I contributed to this article. What to do w/ 25 Million barrels of waste water per day in the Permian will likely be a limiting factor in the years ahead. #energysky #oilsky
insideclimatenews.org/news/2403202...
Are Permian Basin earthquakes now causing pipeline explosions? It’s possible. #oilsky #energysky #Permianbasin #fracquake www.myfoxzone.com/article/news...
Holy Smokes! Another mag 5 earthquake today in the Permian Basin. This one near the last year’s major waste water blowout. They do not understand the subsurface limits!!! #oilsky #energysky
An oil painting I am doing of a bold coast cliff above the water. Dramatic blu and green hues.
Painting progress---this is starting to get me to smile.
More to go and next comes the details that define the sea....
#art #blueskyart #landscape #oilsky #contemporarylandscape #downeast #maineartist
For 2025 energy macro including the Trump factor, #OPEC strategy, non-OPEC countries positioned to add barrels, & challenges flattening the Permian Basin output tune in here: #energysky #oilsky youtu.be/jHKSFp8gSBQ?...
Texas makes state funds available to help conventional stripper well owners plug their marginal wells. #methane #oilsky #energysky www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/t...
If you aren't concerned about the Permian Basin oil & gas runway, it's likely you don't understand that shale is the greatest experiment the industry has ever performed. Very soon remaining reserves won't matter, because associated water destroys profitability. #energysky #oilsky
Fun w/ numbers today: If the ave Indian had the same energy access as the ave Indonesian, India would consume 2.7 Million bpd MORE oil and they would still have less than half the energy consumption of the ave Chinese and 1/10th the consumption of the ave US citizen. #EnergySky #OilSky #OOTT
Is the Permian Basin at Peak or Plateau? My thoughts: #energysky #oilsky #gassky #OOTT #ONGT
It's all #OilSky now.
New article out:
We know now that the oil companies knew early on.
We also know that many nation states were/are major shareholders in big oil.
We also know that nation states have a wider ”duty of care” than companies.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
#energysky #oilsky
Intresting on the shifted position of IEA & Birol:
#oilsky
www.ft.com/content/62d2...