New working paper
crawford.anu.edu.au/cama/researc...

Australian oil consumption projections Some charts Claude and I constructed on oil consumption projections that seem reasonable to me.

How fast will Australia reduce long-term oil consumption and imports? I couldn't find consolidated projections elsewhere so Claude and I made some up.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/austra...

Coupling maritime electrification with renewable power systems: The potential of battery vessels The research in this article is from a forthcoming working paper and follows my recent open-access paper and article. That previous work considered battery vessels (BVs) that could (dis)connect to con...

New article on the electrification of long-distance shipping with battery vessels (BVs) and the interaction with Australia’s future electricity grid. BVs can reduce curtailment, system costs and emissions from electricity generation.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/coupli...

Not that I’m aware of

Electric container ships won’t work – but a fleet of auxiliary battery ships could clean up shipping Could container ships ever go electric? The best option might be a fleet of attendant battery vessels to power these giants directly.

theconversation.com/electric-con...

Slow and steady wins the race: how autonomy facilitates long-haul truck electrification I’m seeking feedback on some early results from a parameterised model looking at the effects of autonomy on the competitiveness and operation of battery-powered heavy-duty long-haul trucks. Represents...

Early results from an upcoming working paper on autonomous battery trucks. Key message: in terms of battery competitiveness with diesel for long-haul heavy trucks, autonomy is roughly equivalent to a battery pack price reduction of AUS$50/kWh.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/slow-s...

I have written about optimally pricing methane versus CO2 from a social cost perspective where there is a risk of catastrophic damage from climate tipping events. I find results more consistent with GWP100 than GWP20 from this perspective.

bsky.app/profile/twis...

Electrifying long-distance container ships | Anthony Wiskich How can long-distance battery-powered container ships stack up? A speculative Asia-Europe illustration

This linked-in article summarises the paper.
lnkd.in/gHZzfTkS

New research paper on how long-distance container shipping can be electrified (and hence decarbonised) in Research in Transportation Economics.
#ClimateEconomics #ClimatePolicy #Decarbonisation #Shipping

@cleanshipping.bsky.social
@csiropublishing.bsky.social
authors.elsevier.com/a/1lkeQ2eEmT...

The Global Decarbonisation Potential of Synthetic Biology We discuss synthetic biology applications that can lead to long-term decarbonisation and quantify the potential using a top-down approach. We find that promoting the restoration of agricultural land ...

New opinion piece with Robert Speight on the long-term global decarbonisation potential of Synthetic Biology. Not open access but a preprint is avalable from my website.
#ClimateEconomics #ClimatePolicy #Decarbonisation
@csiropublishing.bsky.social
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Seminar - Driving Down Australian Domestic Aviation Demand | LinkedIn This paper investigates how emerging transport technologies and climate policy could reshape personal domestic aviation demand in Australia. Using a discrete choice model based on National Visitor Sur...

How might new vehicle technologies reduce personal aviation demand and emissions? Looking forward to presenting online tomorrow with ITLS ...

www.linkedin.com/events/semin...

Policy implications. Climate: electrified and autonomous vehicles will reduce warming. Infrastructure: more car travel, less (and bigger) air travel. Competition policy: less air travel affects ticket prices. Social cohesion: brings together southeastern Australia, but not the west/east coasts.

Personal air passengers in the busiest Melbourne-Sydney route reduce by 63%, with less effect on the longer Melbourne-Brisbane route. Overnight robotaxis most used when N=4 for distances between 600 and 1000 km.

Impacts on personal domestic aviation passengers, relative to the counterfactual. Personal air passengers in the busiest Melbourne-Sydney route reduced by 63%, with less effect on the longer Melbourne-Brisbane route. Overnight robotaxis are most used when N=4 for distances between 600 and 1000 km.

Average flight distances increase due to greater reductions on shorter flights.

Aggregate impacts on personal domestic aviation from comparative static scenarios. Scenarios: EV=Electric vehicle, AV=Autonomous vehicles, ON=Overnight robotaxis, Cspd=Increased car speed, Tax=Carbon tax on aviation.

Elasticities reduce in magnitude as distances increase.

Elasticities vary with travel distance.

Shows increasing air trip share with geodesic distance.

This is the main data and a simple fitted model (excludes individual route price data) for solo travellers (N=1) and groups (N>1). Marker size reflects the number of air trips. We estimate a discrete choice disutility model with car and air travel modes using Bayesian priors.

Combining in turn electrification, autonomy, the use of overnight robotaxis, a 10 kph increase in average car speeds, and an AUS$200/tCO2e carbon tax leads to personal air passenger reductions of 5%, 19%, 22%, 28% and 43%, respectively.

Working paper on reduced personal air travel due to electrified, autonomous personal vehicles/robotaxis. The model is based on Australian travel data and illustrates potential long-run effects eg decarbonisation/contrails. #econ #energy #transport #autonomy crawford.anu.edu.au/cama/content...

The densities of lines/markers in Panels A rises with battery densities (50,200,1000 Wh/kg), with blue/red representing on-ship/off-ship approaches. The panel shows fuel use per transport work relative to the "Current" scenario without a carbon price.

Seeking input from technical shipping/electrical experts on the challenges and potential solutions to powering large ships (eg container) using separate battery vessels en route. There are economic advantages to separating batteries from the ship - a new paper considers this "off-ship" approach ...

I need help on this (possible configurations including alongside/astern vessels like naval refuelling or tighter integration, dynamic cable limitations). I consider future scenarios (say >2040) so thoughts on where tech is heading welcome. The paper is in R&R and I hope will be available soon.

Gradual fuel reductions in the off-ship approach (blue) as battery pack prices decline cf "all-or-nothing" battery adoption in the on-ship approach (red). Line density rises with gravimetric energy density (50,200,1000 Wh/kg).

...and increase gradually as more segments electrify, while optimal battery adoption is "all-or-nothing" in the on-ship approach. The chart shows future scenarios with a US$200 carbon price. But how feasible is powering a large vessel en route through a cable?...

One advantage relates to flexibility, such as the potential for partial electrification across some segments over a long route with many stops ( I look at a China to Europe itinerary for a hybrid container ship ). Fuel reductions start at higher battery pack prices cf batteries "on-ship"...

Seeking input from technical shipping/electrical experts on the challenges and potential solutions to powering large ships (eg container) using separate battery vessels en route. There are economic advantages to separating batteries from the ship - a new paper considers this "off-ship" approach ...

Thanks Scott - please add me ✋

Yes please

New open access article on 'Clean innovation, heterogeneous financing costs, and the optimal climate policy mix'. With Emanuele Campiglio and Alessandro Spiganti. @jeem-econ.bsky.social #econsky
doi.org/10.1016/j.je...

Vacancy for PhD candidate on climate risks and individual behaviour workingat.vu.nl/vacancies/ph...

Alternative protein sources for food and feed | Think Tank | European Parliament Alternative protein sources for food and feed

#Environment impacts of producing animal-based #proteins are substantial. Over 3/4 of agricultural #landuse & 2/3 of agricultural GHG #emissions are linked to such foods. Alternative #protein sources offer opportunities for #foodsecurity & sustainability: www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en...

Substituting Clean for Dirty Energy: A Bottom-Up Analysis | Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists: Vol 10, No 3 Abstract We analyze the macroeconomic substitution between clean and dirty inputs through the lens of production isoquants derived from a numerical bottom-up model of electricity production. This appr...

Up next was the 🏅 2023 Best @jaereaere.bsky.social Paper Award 🏅, which was awarded to:

Fabian Stöckl and Alexander Zerrahn for “Substituting Clean for Dirty Energy: A Bottom-Up Analysis”

Read it here: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...