“ #Advancedeconomies expand and remain #competitive not through additional #labor inputs but through #capital deepening, #technologicalprogress, and #totalfactorproductivity #growth.” www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a...
🎙️The Budgetary Challenge of #AdvancedEconomies: Is an Impasse Inevitable?
Between rising interest rates, an ageing population, and massive rearmament needs, the budgetary equation for developed nations is becoming increasingly complex.
🎧 The full podcast 👉 bnpp.lk/E2qLJ0
#PublicDebt
🌐 #2026 Economic Outlook in Advanced Countries: Building on the Success of 2025
❓ Will the #GlobalEconomy, and #AdvancedEconomies in particular manage to navigate the challenges ahead as they did in 2025?
✨ Read Hélène Baudchon's analysis in her latest editorial for #EcoWeek
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Spanish growth should continue to outpace Eurozone growth. It is underpinned by a dynamic labour market, which is generating gains in purchasing power and bolstering consumption. Lucie Barette
Growth is expected to reach 1.1% in 2026, down from 1.4% in 2025, the latter benefiting from an exceptionally strong first quarter. However, GDP growth is likely to be unevenly distributed. Guillaume Derrien
The Japanese economy is caught between a rock and a hard place. Growth has begun to slow towards its potential level. Japan can boast full employment, a buoyant corporate sector and a reduction in its debt-to-GDP ratio. Anis Bensaidani
📊 The latest issue of #EcoPerspectives, our quarterly #EconomicOverview of #AdvancedEconomies is available!
In this new release, Lucie Barette, Guillaume Derrien and Anis Bensaidani examine the situation of #Spain, the #UnitedKingdom and #Japan
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The German economy is undergoing a strategic transformation, with increased public spending poised to significantly change its economic model. This transformation has the potential to boost business investment and household spending, while also reducing the country's reliance on exports. Marianne Mueller
French growth has been rebounding since Q2 2025, driven primarily by aeronautics production, but also by business investment in a context of decreasing interest rates. Stéphane Colliac, Thomas humblot
The Italian economy is showing some resilience: GDP experienced a modest rebound in Q3 2025, and moderate inflation is helping to maintain household purchasing power. We forecast growth to be around 1% over the next two years (1% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027). Simona Costagli, Paola Verduci
📊 The latest issue of #EcoPerspectives, our quarterly #EconomicOverview of #AdvancedEconomies is available!
In this new release, Marianne Mueller, Stéphane Colliac, Thomas Humblot, Simona Costagli and Paola Verduci examine the situation of #Germany, #France and #Italy
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After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026 Hélène Baudchon
Pressures on public finances in advanced countries are mounting, but remain manageable The structural rise in interest rates is already complicating the situation, but its effects are not yet being fully felt. When they do, most countries will need to generate primary surpluses in order to stabilise their debt ratios.
Growth in the United States is expected to come close to its potential pace in 2026. This resilience would mask “K-shaped growth”, supported by AI-optimism related investment and consumption by the wealthiest. Anis Bensaidani, Céline Choulet
Growth in the Eurozone is expected to strengthen in 2026 (1.6%) primarily driven by investment and a resurgence in activity in Germany. Our forecasts indicate that inflation is likely to remain below the 2% target. Guillaume Derrien, Thomas Humblot
📊 The latest issue of #EcoPerspectives, our quarterly #EconomicOverview of #AdvancedEconomies is available!
In this new release, Hélène Baudchon, Anis Bensaidani, Guillaume Derrien, Thomas Humblot and Céline Choulet examine the situation of the #US and the #Eurozone
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Conference | Economic Research Global Economy: Looking back at 2025, looking ahead to 2026
✨Not to be missed | Our economists take stock of the global economic situation at a dedicated conference.
Watch the replay of our latest conference on our website 👉 bnpp.lk/o4V1K0
#Economy #Growth #FiscalPolicy #MonetaryPolicy #PublicDebt #Tariffs #EmergingMarkets #AdvancedEconomies
Publication: EcoCharts Public Finances Title: Public debt set to increase in most countries by 2030
📣 Discover “#EcoCharts Public Finances,” our new annual publication dedicated to analyzing #PublicFinances in the main #AdvancedEconomies.
You can read the full publication here
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After a strong first half of the year, Spanish growth should remain higher than that of its European neighbours in 2025 and 2026. Domestic demand is likely to remain the main driver, primarily supported by job creation, while the contribution of foreign trade is expected to become slightly negative. Lucie Barette
Belgian growth fluctuated in the first half of this year, with a strong Q1 followed by a slowdown in Q2. Nevertheless, our nowcast for Q3 points to growth of 0.3% q/q, with renewed confidence among households and businesses. Export growth was subdued, hit by tariffs and the related uncertainty. Arne Maes
After solid growth in H1 2025, the second half of the year is expected to see a slowdown (under the weight of US trade policy and UK fiscal policy). Despite the downside risks on the labour market and industry difficulties, growth is expected to be at a higher and stable rate in 2026 thanks to monetary easing. Guillaume Derrien
The Japanese economy has been showing some momentum for just over a year. However, this performance is likely to fade in the second half of the year, not least as a result of the tightening of US trade policy. The labour market remains tight, and inflation continues to exceed the 2% target. Anis Bensaidani
📊 The latest issue of #EcoPerspectives, our quarterly #EconomicOverview of #AdvancedEconomies is available!
In this new release, Lucie Barette, Arne Maes, Guillaume Derrien and Anis Bensaidani examine the situation of #Spain, #Belgium, #UnitedKingdom and #Japan.
👉 bnpp.lk/ENBX2E
The resumption of German growth has been hampered by US tariffs. However, the outlook continues to brighten thanks to the government's strategy, which is structured around a vast programme of public investment and incentives for business investment. Marianne Mueller
Uncertainty persists buy the rebound in growth should be sustained. Unlike the political situation, other aspects of the French economy have improved (agricultural and aeronautical production, interest rates in the private sector, investment). Stéphane Colliac, Laurent Quignon
In Q2 2025, Italy's real GDP fell by -0.1% q/q. On the supply side, this can be explained by a decline in value added in agriculture and industry and a stagnation in services. On the demand side, growth in domestic components did not offset the decline in net exports. Simona Costagli, Paola Verduci
📊 The latest issue of #EcoPerspectives, our quarterly #EconomicOverview of #AdvancedEconomies is available!
In this new release, Marianne Mueller, Stéphane Colliac, Laurent Quignon, Simona Costagli and Paola Verduci examine the situation of #Germany, #France and #Italy.
👉 bnpp.lk/ENBX2E
Advanced economies are continuing to show resilience in the face of the US trade war. Despite significant fluctuations in trade in the first half of 2025, global trade has been broadly unaffected so far. Hélène Baudchon
Growth in the United States has slowed significantly compared with 2024 and is expected to remain moderate in the coming months, while maintaining some dynamism. Inflation is gradually rising again, mainly due to higher tariffs, while the labour market is already showing clear signs of weakening. Anis Bensaidani
Growth in the Eurozone has so far proved fairly resilient to shocks (accompanied in particular by an acceleration in new lending against a backdrop of falling interest rates) and should gradually accelerate. Exports will continue to be weakened by Chinese competition and US protectionism. Guillaume Derrien
📊 The latest issue of #EcoPerspectives, our quarterly #EconomicOverview of #AdvancedEconomies is available!
In this new release, Hélène Baudchon, Anis Bensaidani and Guillaume Derrien examine the situation of advanced economies, including the #USA and the #Eurozone
👉 bnpp.lk/ENBX2E
Symbol %
🇺🇸 How high can they go? A longer-term perspective on long-term interest rates, with a focus on the #USA
➡️ After a decline of real long-term interest rates in #AdvancedEconomies, the direction has changed in recent years.
✨ William De Vijlder's analysis is in #EcoInsight
👉 bnpp.lk/bWZL2o
United Kingdom Business sentiment improves in all sectors: The composite PMI index rises in June (+1.7 points, to 52), driven by both services (+1.9 points, to 52.8) and industry (+1.3 points, to 47.7). The trade agreement with the United States has reduced uncertainty among businesses, leading to the start of a recovery in export orders (+3 points, to 46.2). Guillaume Derrien
United States Improvement in the ISM. The manufacturing ISM improved modestly (49.0, +0.5 pp) in June, with a notable jump in output (50.3, +4.9 pp), which entered expansion territory for the first time since February. The non-manufacturing ISM returned to growth territory (50.8, +0.9 pp) thanks to a rebound in activity and new orders. Anis Bensaidani
Japan A peak in labour market participation. Contractual scheduled earnings accelerated markedly in April, to +2.1% y/y (+0.7 pp). At the same time, real wages remained in negative territory (-2.0% y/y, -0.2 pp). The unemployment rate remained stable (2.5%), while the participation rate reached a record high since 1997, at 64.0% (+0.3 pp). Anis Bensaidani
China Household consumption is supported by government subsidies. Retail sales growth picked up again in May (+6.5% y/y in volume terms, vs. +5.2% in April), boosted by government subsidies for the replacement of consumer goods. However, housing sales continued to contract (-5.5% y/y in April) and consumer confidence remains fragile. Christine Peltier
#EcoPulse — The monthly economic overview of #AdvancedEconomies and China. In this new edition, Guillaume Derrien, Anis Bensaidani and Christine Peltier examine the #UnitedKingdom, the #UnitedStates, #Japan and #China
Find the full analysis here
👉 bnpp.io/O9LC50Wn0m9
France Household confidence stable at a low level, standing at 88 in June and in May (91 in April). The balances of opinion on the past standard of living (nearly 20 points below its historic average), on the outlook for the standard of living (nearly 30 points below) and on the outlook for unemployment trends (nearly 25 points above) are stable but down. Stéphane Colliac, Thomas Humblot
Italy The unemployment rate rose slightly in May (+0.4 pp to 6.5%, but -0.1 pp y/y). At the same time, the employment rate continued to rise (62.9; +0.1 pp). Wage growth stabilised at 3.4% y/y (+0.0 pp). However, it remains strong and well above inflation, thereby supporting household purchasing power. Lucie Barette
Spain The labour market is breaking new records. The number of people registered with social security reached a historic high in June (21.9 million; +2.2% y/y). At the same time, the number of unemployed people fell to 2.4 million (the lowest since 2008), pushing the unemployment rate down (10.8%; -0.1 pp). Negotiated wages continued to rise (+3.4% y/y in May, the same level as in April). Lucie Barette
#EcoPulse — The monthly economic overview of #AdvancedEconomies and China.
In this new edition, Stéphane Colliac, Thomas Humblot and Lucie Barette examine #France, #Italy and #Spain
Find the full analysis here
👉 bnpp.io/O9LC50Wn0m9
Intro Our Q2 2025 nowcasts highlight the resilience of the Eurozone and, to a lesser extent, France. Weaker exports (after their surge in Q1 in anticipation of the US trade tariffs) penalises our forecast in Q2. It’s the opposite for the US with the Atlanta Fed nowcast at +0.7% for Q2. Advanced Economies Team
Eurozone The composite PMI index was stable at 50.2 in June, remaining above the expansion threshold in the first half of the year. The upturn in the manufacturing index slowed but continued (+0.1 pt to 49.5). It was driven in particular by new orders, with the index back above the 50 threshold for the first time in three years. The services PMI is unchanged. Guillaume Derrien, Thomas Humblot
Eurozone The decline in borrowing rates in the Eurozone resumed, except for investment loans. New investment loan rates (IRF>5 years) to non-financial corporations in the eurozone remained stable in May 2025, at 3.67%, for the third consecutive month. By contrast, rates on new treasury loans (variable rate and IRF < 3 months) to corporates continued to fall (-25 bps m/m) to 3.38%. Thomas Humblot
Germany Households are confident yet cautious. Household confidence is also improving. The economic expectations component has risen to 20.1 in July (+13 points in two months). However, this improvement in expectations is not yet reflected in other opinion indicators: the propensity to save remains high and, after an initial rise from -15 to -6 between March and November 2024, the purchasing intentions index is still stagnating at this low level. Marianne Mueller
#EcoPulse — The monthly economic overview of #AdvancedEconomies and China.
In this new edition, Guillaume Derrien, Thomas Humblot and Marianne Mueller examine the #Eurozone and #Germany
Find the full analysis here
👉 bnpp.io/O9LC50Wn0m9
Evolution of 2-year, 10-year, 30-year yields (%). Countries: France, Germany, USA, UK, China, Japan.
🇪🇺 Rising long-term #InterestRates: a relatively good point for the #Eurozone
➡️ The rise in interest rates seen in the #AdvancedEconomies has been continuing in scattered order
✨ Stéphane Colliac's and Anis Bensaidani's analysis is in #ChartOfTheWeek
👉 bnpp.lk/E9VV4o
1 Desjardins: “ #Sovereign #yieldcurves steepened following the announcement of a higher #NATO target, including for the #GovernmentofCanada ( #GoC). Canada’s #fiscal position is currently one of the most enviable among #advancedeconomies, leaving some room for potential new #spending” #cdnecon
