Register for our South America Grain Market Weather Webinar: bit.ly/CPDecemberWe...
🗓️ December 10th
⏰ 10:00 AM ET
What will be discussed?
• The impact of wx on grains in #Brazil & #Argentina
• Planted progress
• Drought status
• Wx fcsts and obs
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather
Over the past 30 days, Brazil #soybean regions have been substantially dry, with prod-wghtd precip only 82% of nrml. The 14-day AIFS, ECMWF, & GEFS fcst below nrml #Brazil soybean prod wghtd precip.
AIFS: 73% of nrml
ECMWF: 82% of nrml
GEFS: 63% of nrml
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather
Southern Illinois has been extremely dry over the prior 30+ days.
The IL corn prod wghtd precip over the last 30 days is 25% of nrml...
County-level changes in the #corn yield expected value show sharp declines across southern Illinois.
#oatt #Agriculture #AgWeather #AgWx
2025 vs 2024 #Corn Belt precip: drier eastern corn belt and MO while a relatively wetter Upper Midwest.
30-day precip totals near 2024 through July, then a mid–late Aug dip, converging by early Sep.
See the blog post here: www.cropprophet.com/2025-us-corn...
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather
Our Grain Market Weather Webinar starts at 10:00 AM ET this morning!
Register for the webinar here before 10 AM: bit.ly/CPSeptemberW...
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn #Agriculture
The eastern #Corn Belt has been extremely dry.
OH ranks driest on record (1981–2025) for Aug+Sep-to-date corn prod wghtd precip. IN, IL, & MO nearly as bad.
We’ll cover what this means for grain markets in tomorrow’s webinar.
Register here: bit.ly/CPSeptemberW...
#AgWx #oatt #AgWeather #Grains
The September Grain Market Wx Webinar is in 2 days.
Register: bit.ly/CPSeptemberW...
What will we discuss:
1) Impact of recent dryness on yield,
2) Effects of disease pressure on corn production,
3) Average first freeze dates by county and the upcoming freeze outlook.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn
Our last Grain Market Weather Webinar for this US growing season will take place on September 10th at 10 AM ET.
👉 Save your spot and register here: bit.ly/CPSeptemberW...
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn #Grains #Yield #WeatherRisk #Agriculture #GrainMarket #GrainTrader #Farmer
Iowa: Slightly different story.
Weather→yield links after 50% silking are weaker; heat & precip signal are not as drastic vs IL/IN.
Analyze the weather impact on grains using CropProphet: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#IAwx #agwx #corn #oatt #Grains #AgWeather #Yield #Agriculture
Indiana: Similar to IL—post 50% silking heat = lower yields across 15–60-day windows. Precip is a weaker positive.
#INwx #agwx #corn #oatt #AgWeather #Grains #Yield
Illinois: Hotter-than-normal max temps after 50% silking align with below-trend yields, and the signal strengthens through 60 days. Precip helps but heat dominates.
#ILwx #agwx #corn #oatt #AgWeather #Grains #Yield
Post 50% silking weather risk isn’t the same everywhere. State graphics show IL & IN yields are highly heat-sensitive (30–60 days after 50% silking), while IA is less responsive.
For #grain markets: heat > precip. Thread👇
#oatt #AgWx #corn #CornBelt #AgWeather #Grains #Yield
Corn yield deviation vs. accumulated Stress Degree Days (SDDs) since 50th pct silking.
• Some work has shown that > 140 SDDs results in yield declines
• As of now (green line), IL, IA, IN are well below that threshold.
#AgWx #Corn #oatt #AgWeather #Grains #Yield #oattrttt
Model spread (Days 1–14, prod-wghtd):
• ECMWF: Corn −17%, Soybeans −20%
• GEFS: Corn −10%, Soybeans −13%
• AIFS: Corn −4%, Soybeans −4%
Same direction (drier), different magnitude—fuel for volatility in #Corn & #Soybeans.
#graintrading #oatt #Grains #AgWx #AgWeather
Signal strength: ECMWF 8–14 day US corn production-weighted precipitation change = 3.8th percentile vs 8 yrs of history for this date—one of the sharpest mid to late-Aug shifts toward drier. (See violin plot attached)
📊 #cornbelt #risk #oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn
With USDA corn estimates out, we examined: Do above-normal planted #corn acres lead to higher yields?
Answer: No.
Using CropProphet Modeler data, the graphic shows no clear relationship between acreage deviation and trend yield deviation.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Agriculture
Monitoring this situation is going to be crucial over the next few weeks.
🌾 Get a 14-day risk-free trial of CropProphet to analyze weather’s impact on grains: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#AgRisk #GrainMarkets #WeatherTrading #oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Weather #Agriculture #Corn #rain
IL corn prod wghtd precip is above nrml over the past 30 days, driven by ~3 precip events in mid to late July.
However, the past 14 days have been notably dry—corn growing areas in IL received only ~50% of nrml precip. AIFS-ENS fcsts show below nrml precip in Week 1.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn
How will August weather shape grain market moves? Find out in today’s Grain Market Weather Webinar — registration closes 10 AM ET.
If weather could impact your grain markets, don’t miss this insight.
👉🔗 bit.ly/CPAugustWebi...
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Agriculture #Grains #Corn
🌾 Grain Traders: This week’s Forecast of the Forecast verified strongly!
• Warmer than nrml across much of the #Corn Belt & Interior NE
• Drier than nrml in the NE, Inner Mountain West, & KS-OK-TX
📺 Watch: youtu.be/d8Tnd3shAew
📅 Aug 13 webinar: bit.ly/CPAugustWebi...
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather
The August Grain Market Weather Webinar is 1 week away!
🗓️ August 13th
⏰ 10 AM ET | 9 AM CT
Register here: bit.ly/CPAugustWebi...
#AgWx #oatt #AgWeather #Corn #Agriculture #Grains #Weather
Over the next 2 weeks, the #corn belt is going to be HOT.
The 14-day GEFS & ECMWF both fcst the corn prod wghtd avg tmp to be >4°F above nrml.
And... during week 3 and 4, the GEFS shows an increased likelihood of above nrml temps within the corn belt.
#oatt #AgWx #Agriculture #AgWeather #Grains
It’s been the opposite of a drought across the #Corn Belt—especially over the past 15 days.
MN, IA, and IL all ranked #1 all-time (1981–2025) for corn production weighted precip from Jul 17–31.
Too much rain? Could yields suffer?
#AgWx #Yield #oatt #AgWeather #GrainMarket #Grains #GrainTrader
The ECMWF, GEFS, and AIFS-ENS all fcst the Canada #corn and #canola production weighted precip to be substantially below normal over the next 14 days.
Below normal precipitation in corn and canola growing regions in Canada needs to be monitored.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Grains #Canada #AgWeather
Over the past 60 days, it has been substantially dry in portions of Canada.
Over the last 60 days, the CA #corn prod wghtd precip has been 69% of nrml while the CA #canola prod wghtd precip has been 70% of nrml.
What does the 14-day precip fcst show? See below.⬇️
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Grains #CA
Here is a map showing SPC wind reports from July 27–28 overlaid on % of U.S. corn production by county.
While models forecasted a high wind event in southern MN, the most impactful winds actually occurred across northern and eastern Iowa.
#oatt #AgWx #Corn #AgWeather #Wind #SPC
What was the corn yield impact of the 2020 Iowa derecho?
In Iowa, wind speeds of 70–120 mph led to yield losses of 42–49 bu/ac. Illinois also saw notable losses.
We analyzed the event in depth here👉 cropprophet.com/2020-iowa-de...
#corn #AgWx #AgWeather #oatt #Agriculture #Yield
A derecho is possible tonight from eastern SD through MN into WI. The area of greatest concern is west and south of Minneapolis.
Such events have historically negatively impacted #corn yields and left significant damage in their wake.
#AgWx #AgWeather #oatt #Agriculture #Yield
@subletteweather.com previews Monday's ECMWF forecast: up to 90% probs of above nrml temps in the southern #Corn Belt/SE, while the Dakotas and #Wheat Belt lean cooler.
A wetter signal likely from STL into the Wheat Belt.
📺Watch the full update: youtu.be/vbZqXn_IHjk
#AgWeather #oatt #AgWx
Analyze how weather impacts grain yields objectively with a 14-day risk-free trial of CropProphet: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#oatt #agwx #AgWeather #Corn #Yield #Agriculture #GrainMarket #Grains #GrainTrader #Grain #Weather #Plant2025
