Probabilites for all matches on Matchday of UCL, calculated by our model and given in the format "home-team win" - "draw" - "away-team win". Atalanta - Brugges: 42-25-33, Qairat - Real: 12-16-72, Inter Milan - Sl. Prague: 71-16-12, Chelsea - Benfica: 45-25-31, Atleti - Frankfurt: 50-24-26, Glimt - Tottenham: 28-24-48, Marseille - Ajax: 30-24-46, Gala - Liverpool: 11-15-73, Pafos - Bayern: 15-19-66, Union SG - Newcastle: 32-25-44, Qarabag - Copenhagen: 41-25-34, Dortmund - Bilbao: 54-23-23, Barca - PSG: 28-24-48, Arsenal - Olympiakos: 68-18-14, Leverkusen - PSV: 41-25-34, Napoli - Sporting: 37-25-38, Villarreal - Juve: 29-24-47, Monaco - Man City: 11-15-74.

Upcoming: UCL Matchday 2. I run an account on IG that applies an Elo-style model to the matches.
www.instagram.com/p/DPON-kqDYq...
#SoccerPredictor #ChampionsLeague #UCL #soccer #BaseOdds

Strengths assumed in the model for each team, measured in odds against the weakest team. Aston Villa: 3.3, Nottingham: 2.7, Roma: 2.7, Porto: 2.0, Lille: 2.0, Sevilla: 2.0, Feyenoord: 2.0, Bologna: 2.0, Nice: 2.0, Stuttgart: 2.0, Salzburg: 1.3, Rangers: 1.3, Freiburg: 1.3, Celtic: 1.3, Lyon: 1.3, Zvezda: 1.3, Midtjylland: 1.3, Zagreb: 1.3, Fenerbahce: 1.3, Utrecht: 1.0, Maccabi: 1.0, PAOK: 1.0, Celta Vigo: 1.0, Basel: 1.0, Pilsen: 1.0, Bukarest: 1.0, Rasgrad: 1.0, Budapest: 1.0, Graz: 1.0, Bergen: 1.0, Eagles: 1.0, Braga: 1.0, Genk: 1.0, Malmo: 1.0, P. Athens: 1.0, Bern: 1.0

Odds calculated by the described model, given in the format "home team wins" - "draw" - "away team wins". PAOK - Maccabi: 39-25-36, Midtjylland - Graz: 47-24-29, Zagreb - Fenerbahce: 39-25-36, Sevilla - Nottingham: 32-25-43, Zvezda - Celtic: 39-25-36, Braga - Feyenoord: 23-23-54, Nice - Roma: 32-25-43, Freiburg - Basel: 47-24-29, Malmo - Rasgrad: 39-25-36, Lille - Bergen: 57-22-21, Eagles - Bukarest: 39-25-36, Aston Villa - Bologna: 52-23-25, Rangers - Genk: 47-24-29, Salzburg - Porto: 29-24-46, Budapest - Pilsen: 39-25-36, Bern - P. Athens: 39-25-36, Utrecht - Lyon: 32-25-43, Stuttgart - Celta Vigo: 57-22-21.

Today, men's UEL has the first matches of its league stage. As a best guess, I use a tiered list of strengths to assume where the teams are standing. The English club Aston Villa seems to be the likeliest to win the trophy.
#SoccerPredictor #UEL #UEFA #EuropeLeague #BaseOdds #soccer

Probabilites for all matches on Matchday of UCL, calculated by our model and given in the format "home-team win" - "draw" - "away-team win". PSV - Union SG: 50-24-27, Bilbao - Arsenal: 23-23-54, Real - Marseille: 73-15-11, Juve - Dortmund: 34-25-41, Benfica - Qarabag: 62-20-18, Tottenham - Villarreal: 39-25-36, Olympiakos - Pafos: 39-25-36, Sl. Prague - Glimt: 39-25-36, PSG - Atalanta: 61-20-19, Bayern - Chelsea: 42-25-33, Liverpool - Atleti: 51-23-26, Ajax - Inter Milan: 20-21-59, Brugges - Monaco: 50-24-27, Copenhagen - Leverkusen: 29-24-46, Man City - Napoli: 67-18-15, Frankfurt - Gala: 50-24-27, Sporting - Qairat: 50-24-27, Newcastle - Barca: 23-23-54.

Strengths in our base-odds model. PSG: 4.7, Man City: 4.4, Real: 4.0, Liverpool: 4.0, Inter Milan: 3.6, Bayern: 3.1, Arsenal: 3.0, Barca: 3.0, Chelsea: 2.8, Dortmund: 2.6, Atleti: 2.5, Benfica: 2.4, Juve: 2.1, Atalanta: 2.0, Ajax: 1.5, Bilbao: 1.5, PSV: 1.5, Frankfurt: 1.5, Leverkusen: 1.5, Sporting: 1.5, Napoli: 1.5, Newcastle: 1.5, Tottenham: 1.5, Villarreal: 1.5, Brugges: 1.5, Gala: 1.0, Marseille: 1.0, Monaco: 1.0, Olympiakos: 1.0, Sl. Prague: 1.0, Union SG: 1.0, Copenhagen: 1.0, Qarabag: 1.0, Glimt: 1.0, Qairat: 1.0, Pafos: 1.0.

To give rough predictions for UCL (starting today), the strengths of all teams is the key input. From that, the Elo-style model I use calculates odds for each match.
#SoccerPredictor #ChampionsLeague #UCL #soccer #BaseOdds

#SoccerPredictor: To test the model's robustness, I put the strengths of Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga, 3. Liga into a model for DFB Pokal. After all matches, the model can then be evaluated. #dfbpokal #bundesliga #zweitebundesliga #dritteliga #baseodds

Odds for the first matchday in 2. Bundesliga, given in the format "Home Win", "Draw", "Away Win". Schalke - Hertha: 29-24-46, Elversberg - Nuernberg: 39-25-36, Paderborn - Kiel: 39-25-36, Karlsruhe - Muenster: 57-22-21, Darmstadt - Bochum: 29-24-46, Bielefeld - D'dorf: 29-24-46, Hannover - Lautern: 50-24-27, Magdeburg - Braunschw.: 57-22-21, Fuerth - Dresden: 39-25-36.

Input strengths, ordered from high to low: Bochum: 3.0, D'dorf: 3.0, Hannover: 3.0, Hertha: 3.0, Kiel: 2.0, Elversberg: 2.0, Paderborn: 2.0, Magdeburg: 2.0, Lautern: 2.0, Karlsruhe: 2.0, Nuernberg: 2.0, Darmstadt: 2.0, Schalke: 2.0, Bielefeld: 2.0, Fuerth: 1.0, Muenster: 1.0, Braunschw.: 1.0, Dresden: 1.0.

Before DFB-Pokal starts in two weeks, there will be already two rounds of 2. Bundesliga. I applied my base-odds model to it. The input strengths are tiers from last season, modified after reading up on expertise re changes during the summer break.
#Soccer #SoccerPredictor #BaseOdds #ZweiteBundesliga

Reviewing the round of sixteen. Palmeiras drew against Botafogo in 90 minutes (as expected), Benfica and Chelsea drew in 90 minuts (as expected), PSG won decisively against Miami (light surprise), Bayern won against Flamengo (as expected), Fluminense won against Inter Milan (stronger surprise), Hilal drew against Man City in 90 minutes (light surprise), Real won narrowly against Juve (as expected), Dortmund won against Monterrey (light surprise).

Updated strengths in the base-odds model. *: dropped out in the group stage. **: dropped out later. Man City**: 8.4, PSG: 8.3, Real: 8.3, Inter Milan**: 6.9, Bayern: 6.1, Dortmund: 5.1, Atleti*: 4.9, Benfica**: 4.6, Chelsea: 4.2, Juve**: 4.2, Fluminense: 3.4, Botafogo**: 3.4, Monterrey**: 3.3, Flamengo**: 3.2, Palmeiras: 3.1, River Plate*: 3.1, Boca*: 2.9, Porto*: 2.8, Pachuca*: 2.6, Hilal: 2.5, Miami**: 2.2, Sundowns*: 2.1, Salzburg*: 2.1, Ahly*: 2.0, Seattle*: 2.0, LAFC*: 2.0, Esperance*: 1.9, Wydad*: 1.7, Ain*: 1.1, Ulsan*: 1.0, Auckland*: 1.0, Urawa*: 1.0.

#ClubWorldCup: The round of sixteen saw some surprises. Now one team in the final will not be one of the former favorites.
#fifacwc #baseodds #SoccerPredictor

Odds for Matchday 2, in the format: probability of home win - draw - away win. Palmeiras - Ahly: 48-24-28, Miami - Porto: 28-24-48, Seattle - Atleti: 19-21-60, PSG - Botafogo: 64-19-17, Benfica - Auckland: 72-16-12, Flamengo - Chelsea: 31-25-44, LAFC - Esperance: 38-25-37, Bayern - Boca: 56-22-22, Sundowns - Dortmund: 19-21-60, Inter Milan - Urawa: 83-10-6, Fluminense - Ulsan: 67-18-15, River Plate - Monterrey: 36-25-39, Juve - Wydad: 56-22-22, Real - Pachuca: 63-20-17, Salzburg - Hilal: 55-22-22, Man City - Ain: 84-10-6.

The next round has some cool match-ups:
PSG-Botafogo, Flamengo-Chelsea, Bayern-Boca, Sundowns-Dortmund, River Plate-Monterrey, Real Madrid-Pacucha.
#ClubWorldCup #SportsData #BaseOdds

Long table of all strengths of clubs in the model. They read "Man City: 8.0, PSG: 8.0, Inter Milan: 8.0, Real: 8.0, Bayern: 6.0, Dortmund: 5.0, Atleti: 5.0, Juve: 4.0, Chelsea: 4.0, Benfica: 4.0, Flamengo: 3.0, Palmeiras: 3.0, River Plate: 3.0, Monterrey: 3.0, Pachuca: 3.0, Botafogo: 3.0, Porto: 3.0, Fluminense: 3.0, Boca: 3.0, Wydad: 2.0, Inter Miami: 2.0, Salzburg: 2.0, LAFC: 2.0, Esperance: 2.0, Sundowns: 2.0, Seattle: 2.0, Ahly: 2.0, Ulsan: 1.0, Ain: 1.0, Auckland: 1.0, Hilal: 1.0, Urawa: 1.0".

Probabilities for each match, given in the format "Team 1 - Team 2: T1 wins - Draw - T2 wins". Ahly - Inter Miami: 38-25-38, Bayern - Auckland: 80-12-8, PSG - Atleti: 50-24-27, Palmeiras - Porto: 38-25-38, Botafogo - Seattle: 48-24-28, Chelsea - LAFC: 56-22-22, Boca - Benfica: 31-24-45, Flamengo - Esperance: 48-24-28, Fluminense - Dortmund: 26-23-51, River Plate - Urawa: 66-19-16, Ulsan - Sundowns: 22-22-56, Monterrey - Inter Milan: 17-20-63, Man City - Wydad: 72-16-12, Real - Hilal: 84-10-6, Pachuca - Salzburg: 48-24-28, Ain - Juve: 12-16-72.

#SoccerPredictor: Club World Cup incoming!
This tournament will see clubs taking each other's measure on the global scale. While European teams are considered the best, there might be surprises.
Here are the numbers used in my base-odds model, and the resulting probabilities.
#ClubWorldCup #BaseOdds

C. Hoell (@baseodds) on Threads Let's review the base-odds model for this season! In the expected points, you see that Leipzig, Stuttgart had been overvalued after seven rounds, while Freiburg and Mainz had been undervalued, when co...

On Threads, you find me reviewing the soccer model I have done a trial run for in this Bundesliga season:
www.threads.com/@baseodds/po...
#DataAnalysis #SoccerPredictor #BaseOdds #EloModel

Da es bei #Bohndesliga International von #RocketBeans diskutiert wurde: Nach den Elo-Zahlen hat PSG tatsächlich durch die Ziehung einen Nachteil gegenüber Bayern von 5 erwarteten Punkte bei etwa derselben Spielstärke. Die beiden sind aber auch die stärksten Outlier. #baseodds #UCL #ChampionsLeague

Scatterplot of expected points after eight rounds against the base odds of each team. A line gives visual guidance for the approximate ideal function. The individual points all lay close to that line, with no clear difference between teams of different pots (color coded).

The UEFA #ChampionsLeague (for men's #soccer clubs) is returning in 11 days!
The new format sees each team play against eight opponents, drawn from ranking-based pots for equal chances. My model validates the fairness: each team's odds depend mainly on their own strength.
#baseodds #DataAnalysis

Probabilities ("Team 1 wins", "Draw", "Team 2 wins") for round 2 of Bundesliga season 2024/25. FCU-STP: 60-30-10. VFB-M05: 55-30-15. SVW-BVB: 15-30-55. SGE-TSG: 55-30-15. BOC-BMG: 15-30-55. KIE-WOB: 5-20-75. B04-RBL: 45-30-25. FCH-FCA: 30-30-40. FCB-SCF: 65-25-10.

Odds against the weakest game (Kiel). B04 leads would have odds of 14.5:1 against KIE, and 14.5:13.8 against FCB.

Tomorrow, round 2 of German football #Bundesliga starts. ⚽
Here are the odds my model is expecting for each match. 📊
If you only watch one game, make it Leverkusen-Leipzig! ✨
#SoccerPredictor #baseodds #BuLi

C-3PO : Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to 1.
Han Solo : Never tell me the odds. As a language-based model, you probably just assumed that sounded close enough.
C-3PO:
C-3PO: I miss my little number cruncher.
#StarWars #odds #baseodds #LLM

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You can follow this modeling endeavour on instagram, at
baseodds (English language) and
baseodds_de (German).
Here is the English-language account:
www.instagram.com/baseodds/
#BaseOdds #SoccerPredictor #DataAnalysis #SoccerStats #Bundesliga #BuLi #Elo

Probabilities ("Team 1 wins", "Draw", "Team 2 wins") for the first matches in Bundesliga's 2024/25 season.

This season, I will try my Elo-based model for German football league #Bundesliga! ⚽📊
Here are the probabilities the model gives for the first matches. I use them in WDR's free #AlleGegenPistor betting game. Hoping for a cool season, have fun!
#SoccerPredictor #BuLi #BaseOdds

Bei #AlleGegenPistor habe ich noch schnell den ersten Spieltag getippt. Viel Erfolg an alle, die teilnehmen! ⚽ #SoccerPredictor #NoGamblingPolicy #Bundesliga #BuLi #BaseOdds