Als ich gestern auf #WDR2 diese Vorhersage von #AlleGegenPistor hörte, hielt ich das für optimistisch. Aber er hat's genau getroffen.
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#AlleGegenPistor
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Probabilities ("Team 1 wins", "Draw", "Team 2 wins") for the first matches in Bundesliga's 2024/25 season.
This season, I will try my Elo-based model for German football league #Bundesliga! ⚽📊
Here are the probabilities the model gives for the first matches. I use them in WDR's free #AlleGegenPistor betting game. Hoping for a cool season, have fun!
#SoccerPredictor #BuLi #BaseOdds
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Bei #AlleGegenPistor habe ich noch schnell den ersten Spieltag getippt. Viel Erfolg an alle, die teilnehmen! ⚽ #SoccerPredictor #NoGamblingPolicy #Bundesliga #BuLi #BaseOdds
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My points and placement in "Alle gegen Pistor" for EURO 2024. I placed just inside the top 10000 players.
In WDR's #AlleGegenPistor betting game, some people got the bonus points for "ESP wins the cup". Here, I personally blame FRA for not making true my bet!
My final placement is now "just inside the top 10k" of ca. 50k users. Congratulations to the winners, and thank you to all players!
#EM2024
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ESP-FRA, averaged over bets in Alle Gegen Pistor: 68% for ESP wins, 22% for draw, 10% for FRA wins (all outcomes after 90 minutes).
Reproduced plot of the probabilities by the ELO-based model introduced in previous post. ESP wins: 40%, draw: 35%, FRA wins: 25%.
#SoccerPredictor for ESP-FRA, the first semi-final of #EURO2024.
#AlleGegenPistor "Tipptrend" (outcomes after 90 mins):
ESP wins: 68%, draw: 22%, FRA wins: 10%.
My model says: 40-35-20.
Betting on the difference? A draw might be more likely due to FRA's defensive focus. ⚽🔮 #EM2024 #NoGamblingPolicy
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Frequencies of outcomes bet by players in Alle Gegen Pistor. ESP-GER: 28-24-48. POR-FRA: 20-20-60.
To beat the odds, one can bet against the trend!⚽📊
Model probabilities vs #AlleGegenPistor bets ("Tipptrend"):
ESP-GER: 45-30-25 vs 28-24-48;
POR-FRA: 20-30-50 vs 20-20-60.
Notice the overrepresentation of "GER wins" in bets.
Would you shift your bet and hope for an advantage? 🤔 #EURO2024 #EM2024
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Charts showing my points and my placement in the free betting game "Alle gegen Pistor" by WDR. Now I have 24 points and am placed around 12000.
My own luck was mid in round 2. #AlleGegenPistor #EURO2024
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My points and placement in the betting game "Alle gegen Pistor". Currently, I have 15 points and am placed better than 5000th.
In the free #AlleGegenPistor betting game by WDR, my performance (using my model and a random number generator) has been solid. With most points being given out in the group stage and limited input to the ELO model so far, I’m pretty happy with my luck! 🌟⚽ #EURO2024 #EM2024
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Betting games are popular with offices, friend groups, and families. My household has a strict no-gambling policy! 🚫💸 So, I play for free at WDR's #AlleGegenPistor for #EURO2024. Accept my challenge! 🏆⚽ allegegenpistorem.wdr2.de
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