Ajax - Benfica: 37-25-38, Gala - Union SG: 55-23-23, Man City - Leverkusen: 68-18-14, Chelsea - Barca: 37-25-38, Dortmund - Villarreal: 56-22-22, Napoli - Qarabag: 36-25-39, Glimt - Juve: 22-22-56, Marseille - Newcastle: 25-23-52, Sl.Prague - Bilbao: 29-24-47, Copenhagen - Qairat: 39-25-36, Pafos - Monaco: 38-25-37, PSG - Tottenham: 67-18-15, Liverpool - PSV: 65-19-16, Arsenal - Bayern: 36-25-39, Atleti - Inter Milan: 28-24-48, Frankfurt - Atalanta: 31-25-44, Sporting - Brugges: 41-25-34, Olympiakos - Real: 12-16-71.

This week's UCL sees the two best-performing teams face off: Arsenal vs Bayern. My model makes it out to be a very close match!
The third club with the perfect-until-now 12 points is Inter Milan which are travelling to play against Atletico Madrid.
#UCL #ChampionsLeague #soccer #SoccerPredictor

Calculated probabilites for "Home team wins", "Draw", "Away Team wins". Napoli - Frankfurt: 39-25-36, Sl. Prague - Arsenal: 15-18-67, PSG - Bayern: 49-24-27, Liverpool - Real: 37-25-38, Juve - Sporting: 45-24-30, Atleti - Union SG: 63-20-17, Tottenham - Copenhagen: 51-23-26, Glimt - Monaco: 38-25-37, Olympiakos - PSV: 27-24-49, Qarabag - Chelsea: 18-20-61, Pafos - Villarreal: 29-24-47, Man City - Dortmund: 49-24-27, Inter Milan - Qairat: 76-14-10, Ajax - Gala: 42-25-33, Benfica - Leverkusen: 47-24-29, Brugges - Barca: 22-22-56, Marseille - Atalanta: 35-25-40, Newcastle - Bilbao: 52-23-25.

Again, here are the probabilities my Elo model gives out for this week's UCL matches. PSG are favorites against Bayern, while Liverpool vs Real looks like a close thing.
#SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague

Calculated probabilities for outcomes (after 90 mins): "home team wins"-"draw"-"away team wins". Heidenh. - HSV: 48-24-28, Hertha - Elversberg: 34-25-41, Eintracht - Dortmund: 33-25-42, Wolfsburg - Kiel: 58-21-20, Cottbus - Leipzig: 16-19-65, M'gladbach - KSC: 45-24-31, Augsburg - Bochum: 64-20-17, St. Pauli - Hoffenh.: 32-25-44, Illertissen - Magdeb.: 13-17-70, Fuerth - Lautern: 32-25-43, Paderborn - Leverk.: 23-23-54, Mainz - Stuttg.: 32-25-43, Union B. - Bielef.: 61-21-19, Darmstadt - Schalke: 41-25-35, D'dorf - Freiburg: 20-21-58, 1.FC Koeln - Bayern: 19-21-60.

Current input to calculate probabilities. Red color indicates losing Elo point, like Bayern has done by winning only narrowly against Wiesbaden. Strengths in the model right now, given in odds against the weakest team: Bayern: 20.1, Dortmund: 16.2, Leipzig: 14.0, Stuttg.: 13.7, Hoffenh.: 12.9, Leverk.: 12.7, Eintracht: 12.7, Wolfsburg: 12.7, Freiburg: 12.0, Heidenh.: 10.6, Union B.: 10.6, Mainz: 10.2, Augsburg: 10.1, St. Pauli: 9.5, Werder: 9.4, 1.FC Koeln: 8.1, M'gladbach: 8.1, HSV: 7.6, KSC: 6.5, Elversberg: 6.3, Paderborn: 6.3, Kiel: 6.1, Darmstadt: 6.1, Hannover: 5.8, Schalke: 5.8, Lautern: 5.4, Hertha: 5.2, D'dorf: 5.1, Bielef.: 4.6, Cottbus: 4.5, Braunschw.: 4.4, Magdeb.: 4.4, Muenster: 4.2, Fuerth: 4.1, Bochum: 3.9, Nuernb.: 3.9, Saarbr.: 3.0, Wiesbaden: 2.2, Essen: 2.1, Dresden: 2.1, Vikt. Koeln: 2.1, Ulm: 2.1, Rostock: 2.0, Norderst.: 1.1, Pirmasens: 1.1, Lok Leipzig: 1.1, BFC Dyn.: 1.1, Illertissen: 1.1, Sandh.: 1.1, Lotte: 1.1, Halle: 1.1, Regens.: 1.1, Delmenhorst: 1.1, Luebeck: 1.1, Homburg: 1.1, Schweinfurt: 1.1, Lohne: 1.1, Engers: 1.0, Grossasp.: 1.0, Hemelingen: 1.0, Guetersloh: 1.0, Bahl. SC: 1.0, Meuselwitz: 1.0, RSV Eintr.: 1.0.

#SoccerPredictor: German DFB-Pokal is going into Round 2. Some little tweaks to the strength input try to compensate for league performances, which will help to test if a cup-only method predicts worse than an overall-strength model.
The closest big match is Frankfurt vs Dortmund.
#DFBPokal

Probabilites for all matches on Matchday 3 of UCL 25/26, calculated by my model and given in the format "home-team win" - "draw" - "away-team win". Barca - Olympiakos: 67-18-15, Qairat - Pafos: 37-25-38, Arsenal - Atleti: 42-25-33, Leverkusen - PSG: 14-18-68, PSV - Napoli: 36-25-39, Villarreal - Man City: 17-20-63, Copenhagen - Dortmund: 17-20-63, Union SG - Inter Milan: 13-17-70, Newcastle - Benfica: 33-25-42, Gala - Glimt: 39-25-36, Bilbao - Qarabag: 43-25-32, Bayern - Brugges: 60-21-19, Real - Juve: 57-22-21, Chelsea - Ajax: 58-21-20, Atalanta - Sl. Prague: 58-21-21, Frankfurt - Liverpool: 20-21-59, Sporting - Marseille: 37-25-38, Monaco - Tottenham: 28-24-48.

It's the third matchday of UCL. Here are the odds calculated by my Elo-style model.
This year, I test if such a model suffices or if one needs to incorporate results from the leagues in which the teams are also participating.
#soccer #SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague

Probabilites for all matches on Matchday of UCL, calculated by our model and given in the format "home-team win" - "draw" - "away-team win". Atalanta - Brugges: 42-25-33, Qairat - Real: 12-16-72, Inter Milan - Sl. Prague: 71-16-12, Chelsea - Benfica: 45-25-31, Atleti - Frankfurt: 50-24-26, Glimt - Tottenham: 28-24-48, Marseille - Ajax: 30-24-46, Gala - Liverpool: 11-15-73, Pafos - Bayern: 15-19-66, Union SG - Newcastle: 32-25-44, Qarabag - Copenhagen: 41-25-34, Dortmund - Bilbao: 54-23-23, Barca - PSG: 28-24-48, Arsenal - Olympiakos: 68-18-14, Leverkusen - PSV: 41-25-34, Napoli - Sporting: 37-25-38, Villarreal - Juve: 29-24-47, Monaco - Man City: 11-15-74.

Upcoming: UCL Matchday 2. I run an account on IG that applies an Elo-style model to the matches.
www.instagram.com/p/DPON-kqDYq...
#SoccerPredictor #ChampionsLeague #UCL #soccer #BaseOdds

Strengths assumed in the model for each team, measured in odds against the weakest team. Aston Villa: 3.3, Nottingham: 2.7, Roma: 2.7, Porto: 2.0, Lille: 2.0, Sevilla: 2.0, Feyenoord: 2.0, Bologna: 2.0, Nice: 2.0, Stuttgart: 2.0, Salzburg: 1.3, Rangers: 1.3, Freiburg: 1.3, Celtic: 1.3, Lyon: 1.3, Zvezda: 1.3, Midtjylland: 1.3, Zagreb: 1.3, Fenerbahce: 1.3, Utrecht: 1.0, Maccabi: 1.0, PAOK: 1.0, Celta Vigo: 1.0, Basel: 1.0, Pilsen: 1.0, Bukarest: 1.0, Rasgrad: 1.0, Budapest: 1.0, Graz: 1.0, Bergen: 1.0, Eagles: 1.0, Braga: 1.0, Genk: 1.0, Malmo: 1.0, P. Athens: 1.0, Bern: 1.0

Odds calculated by the described model, given in the format "home team wins" - "draw" - "away team wins". PAOK - Maccabi: 39-25-36, Midtjylland - Graz: 47-24-29, Zagreb - Fenerbahce: 39-25-36, Sevilla - Nottingham: 32-25-43, Zvezda - Celtic: 39-25-36, Braga - Feyenoord: 23-23-54, Nice - Roma: 32-25-43, Freiburg - Basel: 47-24-29, Malmo - Rasgrad: 39-25-36, Lille - Bergen: 57-22-21, Eagles - Bukarest: 39-25-36, Aston Villa - Bologna: 52-23-25, Rangers - Genk: 47-24-29, Salzburg - Porto: 29-24-46, Budapest - Pilsen: 39-25-36, Bern - P. Athens: 39-25-36, Utrecht - Lyon: 32-25-43, Stuttgart - Celta Vigo: 57-22-21.

Today, men's UEL has the first matches of its league stage. As a best guess, I use a tiered list of strengths to assume where the teams are standing. The English club Aston Villa seems to be the likeliest to win the trophy.
#SoccerPredictor #UEL #UEFA #EuropeLeague #BaseOdds #soccer

Probabilites for all matches on Matchday of UCL, calculated by our model and given in the format "home-team win" - "draw" - "away-team win". PSV - Union SG: 50-24-27, Bilbao - Arsenal: 23-23-54, Real - Marseille: 73-15-11, Juve - Dortmund: 34-25-41, Benfica - Qarabag: 62-20-18, Tottenham - Villarreal: 39-25-36, Olympiakos - Pafos: 39-25-36, Sl. Prague - Glimt: 39-25-36, PSG - Atalanta: 61-20-19, Bayern - Chelsea: 42-25-33, Liverpool - Atleti: 51-23-26, Ajax - Inter Milan: 20-21-59, Brugges - Monaco: 50-24-27, Copenhagen - Leverkusen: 29-24-46, Man City - Napoli: 67-18-15, Frankfurt - Gala: 50-24-27, Sporting - Qairat: 50-24-27, Newcastle - Barca: 23-23-54.

Strengths in our base-odds model. PSG: 4.7, Man City: 4.4, Real: 4.0, Liverpool: 4.0, Inter Milan: 3.6, Bayern: 3.1, Arsenal: 3.0, Barca: 3.0, Chelsea: 2.8, Dortmund: 2.6, Atleti: 2.5, Benfica: 2.4, Juve: 2.1, Atalanta: 2.0, Ajax: 1.5, Bilbao: 1.5, PSV: 1.5, Frankfurt: 1.5, Leverkusen: 1.5, Sporting: 1.5, Napoli: 1.5, Newcastle: 1.5, Tottenham: 1.5, Villarreal: 1.5, Brugges: 1.5, Gala: 1.0, Marseille: 1.0, Monaco: 1.0, Olympiakos: 1.0, Sl. Prague: 1.0, Union SG: 1.0, Copenhagen: 1.0, Qarabag: 1.0, Glimt: 1.0, Qairat: 1.0, Pafos: 1.0.

To give rough predictions for UCL (starting today), the strengths of all teams is the key input. From that, the Elo-style model I use calculates odds for each match.
#SoccerPredictor #ChampionsLeague #UCL #soccer #BaseOdds

Prognosis of UCL group stage, done before season start. Expected points are plotted against assumed strength (base odds). Ordered by expected points: Man City, PSG, Liverpool, Real, Inter Milan, Barca, Arsenal, Bayern, Chelsea, Dortmund, Benfica, Juve, Atalanta, Tottenham, Atleti, ...

Strengths (base odds) of all UCL teams, in descending order. PSG: 4.7, Man City: 4.4, Real: 4.0, Liverpool: 4.0, Inter Milan: 3.6, Bayern: 3.1, Arsenal: 3.0, Barca: 3.0, Chelsea: 2.8, Dortmund: 2.6, Atleti: 2.5, Benfica: 2.4, Juve: 2.1, Atalanta: 2.0, Ajax: 1.5, Bilbao: 1.5, PSV: 1.5, Frankfurt: 1.5, Sporting: 1.5, Napoli: 1.5, Newcastle: 1.5, Tottenham: 1.5, Villarreal: 1.5, Brugges: 1.5, Gala: 1.0, Leverkusen: 1.0, Marseille: 1.0, Monaco: 1.0, Olympiakos: 1.0, Slavia Prague: 1.0, Union SG: 1.0, Copenhagen: 1.0, Qarabag: 1.0, Glimt: 1.0, Qairat: 1.0, Pafos: 1.0.

The UCL match-ups have been drawn today. The Elo-style model has been applied and shows that the effect of luck seems to be limited. Atletico Madrid and Eintracht Frankfurt might have had the worst luck, losing one or two points to the ideal value.
#soccer #SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague

Base odds for all Bundesliga teams. FCB: 4.0, BVB: 2.7, B04: 2.3, SGE: 2.3, VFB: 2.3, SCF: 2.0, M05: 2.0, RBL: 2.0, WOB: 1.7, TSG: 1.7, BMG: 1.5, FCA: 1.5, SVW: 1.3, FCU: 1.3, STP: 1.3, FCH: 1.3, KOE: 1.0, HSV: 1.0.

#SoccerPredictor: Bundesliga (men's soccer) is starting again tonight. My Elo-like model now assumes a overall tight field: Bayern is favored against Hamburg only by 4 to 1. Additionally, *tension* will be monitored to indicate the need for strong adjustments.
#Bundesliga #Soccer #DataAnalysis

#SoccerPredictor: To test the model's robustness, I put the strengths of Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga, 3. Liga into a model for DFB Pokal. After all matches, the model can then be evaluated. #dfbpokal #bundesliga #zweitebundesliga #dritteliga #baseodds

Odds for 3. Liga, given as "Home Win"-"Draw"-"Away Win". Essen - 1860: 39-25-36, Ingolstadt - Regensburg: 39-25-36, Osnabrueck - Aachen: 39-25-36, Cottbus - Saarbr.: 32-25-43, Hoffenh. II - Havelse: 39-25-36, Waldhof - Verl: 29-24-46, Duisburg - Stuttg. II: 23-23-54, Aue - Rostock: 29-24-46, V. Koeln - Schweinfurt: 67-18-15, Wiesbaden - Ulm: 39-25-36

Plot of points at the simulated seasons against the input base odds (strengths). Points are here given as "base odds - expected points". Saarbr.: 4.0 - 70, Ulm: 3.0 - 60, Regensburg: 3.0 - 60, Cottbus: 3.0 - 60, Rostock: 3.0 - 60, V. Koeln: 3.0 - 60, Verl: 3.0 - 60, Essen: 3.0 - 60, Wiesbaden: 3.0 - 60, Ingolstadt: 3.0 - 60, 1860: 3.0 - 60, Aachen: 2.0 - 50, Aue: 2.0 - 50, Osnabrueck: 2.0 - 50, Stuttg. II: 2.0 - 50, Waldhof: 2.0 - 50, Duisburg: 1.0 - 30, Hoffenh. II: 1.0 - 30, Havelse: 1.0 - 30, Schweinfurt: 1.0 - 30.

And for fun (and because of MSV Duisburg's participation), I also let a model run on 3. Liga. This is even harder to predict because expert opinion is hard to find. The inputs I used are derived from last season's performances.
#dritteliga #Fussball #SoccerPredictor #DataAnalysis

Odds for the first matchday in 2. Bundesliga, given in the format "Home Win", "Draw", "Away Win". Schalke - Hertha: 29-24-46, Elversberg - Nuernberg: 39-25-36, Paderborn - Kiel: 39-25-36, Karlsruhe - Muenster: 57-22-21, Darmstadt - Bochum: 29-24-46, Bielefeld - D'dorf: 29-24-46, Hannover - Lautern: 50-24-27, Magdeburg - Braunschw.: 57-22-21, Fuerth - Dresden: 39-25-36.

Input strengths, ordered from high to low: Bochum: 3.0, D'dorf: 3.0, Hannover: 3.0, Hertha: 3.0, Kiel: 2.0, Elversberg: 2.0, Paderborn: 2.0, Magdeburg: 2.0, Lautern: 2.0, Karlsruhe: 2.0, Nuernberg: 2.0, Darmstadt: 2.0, Schalke: 2.0, Bielefeld: 2.0, Fuerth: 1.0, Muenster: 1.0, Braunschw.: 1.0, Dresden: 1.0.

Before DFB-Pokal starts in two weeks, there will be already two rounds of 2. Bundesliga. I applied my base-odds model to it. The input strengths are tiers from last season, modified after reading up on expertise re changes during the summer break.
#Soccer #SoccerPredictor #BaseOdds #ZweiteBundesliga

Odds calculated for all matches of Matchday 2, given in the format "home team wins" - "draw" - "away team wins". NOR - FIN: 64-19-17, SUI - ISL: 39-25-36, ESP - BEL: 74-15-11, POR - ITA: 26-24-50, GER - DEN: 46-24-29, POL - SWE: 21-22-57, ENG - NED: 53-23-24, FRA - WAL: 81-11-7.

Classification of teams, by plotting expected points, given the played matches, against strength. "Favorites": Spain and France. "Troubled": England. "Runners-up": Norway, Sweden, Germany, Italy, Netherlands. "Happy to be Present": Finland, Switzerland, Denmark, Iceland, Portugal, Poland, Belgium, Wales.

Matchday 2 has started, see the first graphic for the odds calculated in my model.
Additionally, the plot of expected points vs strength can be used to classify perfomances far. France and Spain remain favorites, while England is in dire waters.
#weuro2025 #SoccerPredictor #EURO2025

Reviewing the round of sixteen. Palmeiras drew against Botafogo in 90 minutes (as expected), Benfica and Chelsea drew in 90 minuts (as expected), PSG won decisively against Miami (light surprise), Bayern won against Flamengo (as expected), Fluminense won against Inter Milan (stronger surprise), Hilal drew against Man City in 90 minutes (light surprise), Real won narrowly against Juve (as expected), Dortmund won against Monterrey (light surprise).

Updated strengths in the base-odds model. *: dropped out in the group stage. **: dropped out later. Man City**: 8.4, PSG: 8.3, Real: 8.3, Inter Milan**: 6.9, Bayern: 6.1, Dortmund: 5.1, Atleti*: 4.9, Benfica**: 4.6, Chelsea: 4.2, Juve**: 4.2, Fluminense: 3.4, Botafogo**: 3.4, Monterrey**: 3.3, Flamengo**: 3.2, Palmeiras: 3.1, River Plate*: 3.1, Boca*: 2.9, Porto*: 2.8, Pachuca*: 2.6, Hilal: 2.5, Miami**: 2.2, Sundowns*: 2.1, Salzburg*: 2.1, Ahly*: 2.0, Seattle*: 2.0, LAFC*: 2.0, Esperance*: 1.9, Wydad*: 1.7, Ain*: 1.1, Ulsan*: 1.0, Auckland*: 1.0, Urawa*: 1.0.

#ClubWorldCup: The round of sixteen saw some surprises. Now one team in the final will not be one of the former favorites.
#fifacwc #baseodds #SoccerPredictor

Probabilities in the base-odds model, percentages given in the format "home team wins" - "draw" - "away team wins". ISL - FIN: 56-22-22, SUI - NOR: 28-24-48, BEL - ITA: 28-24-48, ESP - POR: 72-16-12, DEN - SWE: 31-24-45, GER - POL: 56-22-22, WAL - NED: 16-19-66, FRA - ENG: 38-25-38.

#SoccerPredictor: The EURO 2025 is starting tomorrow evening, with Iceland-Finland and Switzerland-Norway in Group A. Again, I applied a base-odds model to help you (and myself) in any office/family/public prediction competition.
#EURO2025 #SoccerStats #WomensSoccer

A classification of clubs, according to the scatter plot achieved points vs base odds. Beige: Favorites are Man City, Real Madrid, PSG, Inter Milan. Green: Good Performers from Bayern to Botafogo, with Atletico the only team here that has dropped out. Red: Underdogs, partially still in the running in the coming round of sixteen. Includes Hilal (made it to the round of sixteen) and Salzburg (did not make it). Grey: Former hopefuls. Orange: Effectively chanceless, like Auckland.

Strengths in the base-odds model. Hilal's starting point has been manually updated from 1 to 2, because of their consistent performance. The teams are ranked like follows, with asterisks indicating drop-outs. Man City: 9.0, Real: 8.1, PSG: 7.9, Inter Milan: 7.6, Bayern: 6.0, Atleti*: 4.9, Dortmund: 4.9, Benfica: 4.6, Juve: 4.3, Chelsea: 4.2, Monterrey: 3.4, Botafogo: 3.4, Flamengo: 3.3, Palmeiras: 3.1, Fluminense: 3.1, River Plate*: 3.1, Boca*: 2.9, Porto*: 2.8, Pachuca*: 2.6, Hilal: 2.4, Miami: 2.3, Sundowns*: 2.1, Salzburg*: 2.1, Ahly*: 2.0, Seattle*: 2.0, LAFC*: 2.0, Esperance*: 1.9, Wydad*: 1.7, Ain*: 1.1, Ulsan*: 1.0, Auckland*: 1.0, Urawa*: 1.0.

#SoccerPredictor: the group stage is over in the men's soccer #ClubWorldCup. The model, including the input data, has been working quite well. However, there was a big tension with al-Hilal which has now been manually updated from Auckland level to Salzburg level.

Long table of all strengths of clubs in the model. They read "Man City: 8.0, PSG: 8.0, Inter Milan: 8.0, Real: 8.0, Bayern: 6.0, Dortmund: 5.0, Atleti: 5.0, Juve: 4.0, Chelsea: 4.0, Benfica: 4.0, Flamengo: 3.0, Palmeiras: 3.0, River Plate: 3.0, Monterrey: 3.0, Pachuca: 3.0, Botafogo: 3.0, Porto: 3.0, Fluminense: 3.0, Boca: 3.0, Wydad: 2.0, Inter Miami: 2.0, Salzburg: 2.0, LAFC: 2.0, Esperance: 2.0, Sundowns: 2.0, Seattle: 2.0, Ahly: 2.0, Ulsan: 1.0, Ain: 1.0, Auckland: 1.0, Hilal: 1.0, Urawa: 1.0".

Probabilities for each match, given in the format "Team 1 - Team 2: T1 wins - Draw - T2 wins". Ahly - Inter Miami: 38-25-38, Bayern - Auckland: 80-12-8, PSG - Atleti: 50-24-27, Palmeiras - Porto: 38-25-38, Botafogo - Seattle: 48-24-28, Chelsea - LAFC: 56-22-22, Boca - Benfica: 31-24-45, Flamengo - Esperance: 48-24-28, Fluminense - Dortmund: 26-23-51, River Plate - Urawa: 66-19-16, Ulsan - Sundowns: 22-22-56, Monterrey - Inter Milan: 17-20-63, Man City - Wydad: 72-16-12, Real - Hilal: 84-10-6, Pachuca - Salzburg: 48-24-28, Ain - Juve: 12-16-72.

#SoccerPredictor: Club World Cup incoming!
This tournament will see clubs taking each other's measure on the global scale. While European teams are considered the best, there might be surprises.
Here are the numbers used in my base-odds model, and the resulting probabilities.
#ClubWorldCup #BaseOdds

C. Hoell (@baseodds) on Threads Let's review the base-odds model for this season! In the expected points, you see that Leipzig, Stuttgart had been overvalued after seven rounds, while Freiburg and Mainz had been undervalued, when co...

On Threads, you find me reviewing the soccer model I have done a trial run for in this Bundesliga season:
www.threads.com/@baseodds/po...
#DataAnalysis #SoccerPredictor #BaseOdds #EloModel

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Soccer Elo update:
At the moment, I got two ig accounts running that update for each matchday, based on Elo models.
The first one is baseodds_de, treating #Bundesliga in German language: www.instagram.com/baseodds_de/ #SoccerPredictor #Soccer

Probabilities ("Team 1 wins", "Draw", "Team 2 wins") for round 2 of Bundesliga season 2024/25. FCU-STP: 60-30-10. VFB-M05: 55-30-15. SVW-BVB: 15-30-55. SGE-TSG: 55-30-15. BOC-BMG: 15-30-55. KIE-WOB: 5-20-75. B04-RBL: 45-30-25. FCH-FCA: 30-30-40. FCB-SCF: 65-25-10.

Odds against the weakest game (Kiel). B04 leads would have odds of 14.5:1 against KIE, and 14.5:13.8 against FCB.

Tomorrow, round 2 of German football #Bundesliga starts. ⚽
Here are the odds my model is expecting for each match. 📊
If you only watch one game, make it Leverkusen-Leipzig! ✨
#SoccerPredictor #baseodds #BuLi

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You can follow this modeling endeavour on instagram, at
baseodds (English language) and
baseodds_de (German).
Here is the English-language account:
www.instagram.com/baseodds/
#BaseOdds #SoccerPredictor #DataAnalysis #SoccerStats #Bundesliga #BuLi #Elo

Probabilities ("Team 1 wins", "Draw", "Team 2 wins") for the first matches in Bundesliga's 2024/25 season.

This season, I will try my Elo-based model for German football league #Bundesliga! ⚽📊
Here are the probabilities the model gives for the first matches. I use them in WDR's free #AlleGegenPistor betting game. Hoping for a cool season, have fun!
#SoccerPredictor #BuLi #BaseOdds

Bei #AlleGegenPistor habe ich noch schnell den ersten Spieltag getippt. Viel Erfolg an alle, die teilnehmen! ⚽ #SoccerPredictor #NoGamblingPolicy #Bundesliga #BuLi #BaseOdds

My next focus is #SoccerPredictor modeling for the coming #Bundesliga season, extending my Elo-based model that I used on multiple tournaments this summer. ⚽📊
At the moment, I am missing expert ratings. Next Wednesday, I will make a cut and use the available things. Keep tuned! 📺 #DataAnalysis

Elo ratings in my model, with gains and losses regarding the input ratings. USA, GER, CAN, and JPN gained more than one point. ESP, FRA, AUS, NZL and ZAM lost around one point (on a scala of 10).

With regards to the input ratings, the spread has grown during the competition. This could mean there the input could have been more risky. 🤔
Here is the final tier list!
S-tier: USA ✨🥇
A-tier: GER 🥉, CAN, JPN, BRA 🥈.
B-tier: ESP, FRA, COL.
#SoccerPredictor #Paris2024 #wolyfoot #DataAnalysis

Final Elo ratings for the women's soccer competition at Paris 2024, with gains and losses with regards to before the medal matches. USA leads with 9.3 points, ZAM is last with 2.1 points.

#Paris2024 update: USA women's soccer team won gold! ⚽✨This time, they could win in normal time, 1-0 against BRA. The updated Elo rating sees them far in front, too. 📊
#SoccerPredictor #wolyfoot #Olympics #SoccerStats

Probabilities of outcomes after normal time for the gold match at women's soccer at Paris 2024. USA wins: 45 %. Draw: 33%. BRA wins: 22%.

#Paris2024 update: women's soccer match for gold! ⚽
Yesterday, Germany defeated Spain with 1-0 and won bronze medals. Today, it is USA-BRA with 61-39 probabilities. Again, there is a reasonable chance for extra time and a shoot-out. 📊
Keep tuned! 📺
#SoccerPredictor #wolyfoot #Olympics #DataAnalysis

Probabilities ("Team 1 wins", "Draw", "Team 2 wins"; after 90 minutes) for the last matches of women's soccer at Paris 2024. GER-ESP: 47-33-20. USA-BRA: 45-30-25.

#Paris2024 update: women's soccer semi-finals! ⚽
BRA won hugely against ESP, while the US team had to go to extra time to defeat GER. Next are the matches for the medals.
Overall outcome probabilities, and times:
GER-ESP: 62-38, Friday 15h.
USA-BRA: 59-41, Saturday 17h.
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Probabilities ("Team 1 wins", "Draw", "Team 2 wins"; after 90 minutes) for semi-finals of women's soccer at Pari 2024. USA-GER: 47-33-20. ESP-BRA: 43-32-25.

Later in the day, women's soccer at #Paris2024 continues! ⚽
Here are the outcome probabilities by model, and starting times.
USA-GER: 63-37, 18h Paris local time.
ESP-BRA: 59-41, 21h.
What do you expect? Equally long matches as in the quarter-finals? 🤔
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USA lost ELO points because they were expected to have an undisputed win against JPN.
Still S-tier: USA ✨
A-tier: CAN*, ESP, JPN*, GER.
B-tier: BRA, COL*, FRA*.
(Teams with an asterisk * have already dropped out).
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