Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 04/19/2026 This too shall pass.

For stocks and the economy, this too shall pass.

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

#stockmarket #economicgrowth #outlook #recession #S&P500 #earnings #stockprices #forecast #monetarypolicy #AI #investments #economy $SPY $VOO $QQQ

China Inflation Cools to 1.0% in March China CPI slowed to 1.0% YoY in March 2026; core CPI fell to 1.1% (NBS, Apr 10, 2026), pressuring domestic demand assumptions and prompting policy recalibration.

China Inflation Cools to 1.0% in March: China CPI slowed to 1.0% YoY in March 2026; core CPI fell to 1.1% (NBS, Apr 10, 2026), pressuring domestic demand assumptions and prompting policy recalibration. 👈 Read full analysis #ChinaInflation #CPI #EconomicTrends #MonetaryPolicy #DomesticDemand

BasisPointInsight.com - Staying on Pause May Be the Optimal Policy Response to a Supply-Shock by Gaura Sen Gupta With uncertainty elevated, RBI’s optimal response is to stay on pause and ensure ample liquidity, while fiscal policy takes the lead in cushioning supply shocks and rising energy costs. by Gaura Sen G...

1/3 Reserve Bank of India staying on pause is a calibrated response to a supply shock. The April policy makes this clear: inflation risks have risen, growth risks have deepened, and uncertainty around second-round effects remains high.

#MonetaryPolicy #SupplyShock

1/2 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐲 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐬, 𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐛𝐚𝐧𝐤𝐬 𝐝𝐨 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐞 𝐟𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥𝐲.

In his latest for BasisPoint, former RBI ED & MPC member 𝐌𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐥 𝐒𝐚𝐠𝐠𝐚𝐫 argues the April policy reflects restraint.

#RBI #MonetaryPolicy

1/3 Reserve Bank of India dialled down market anxiety, but without locking itself into a path.

#RBI #MonetaryPolicy #MarketSentiment

BasisPointInsight.com - RBI’s Quiet Dovish Tilt Meets a Fragile Rupee Defence by Abheek Barua RBI signals a growth priority amid oil-shock risks, even as it defends the rupee with calibrated intervention and selective curbs on speculation. by Abheek Barua, BasisPointInsight.com

2/3 🔹Is the RBI effectively prioritising growth over inflation without formally signalling a shift?

🔹Can rupee defence coexist with a softening rate bias, or will one eventually dominate policy choices?

#MonetaryPolicy #DovishTilt #IndianRupee

European Central Bank Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Middle East Conflict Fears Energy market instability and shipping risks drive central banks to maintain cautious monetary policy, raising cost pressures for global beverage producers.

European Central Bank Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Middle East Conflict Fears #EuropeanCentralBank #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #MiddleEastConflict #EnergyMarket

[EMOJI] [Latest Crypto News]

• [Impact]: US ceasefire agreement violates, Iran speaker says
• [Tag1]: Crypto #latestnews #XRP

[takeaway]

#tag1 #tech #finance #crypto #XRP #USCession #Iran #MonetaryPolicy

BasisPointInsight.com - RBI Stays on Hold, but Signals Flexibility in a Shifting Risk Landscape by Aastha Gudwani A ceasefire eased the backdrop, but RBI’s message was clear: policy stays flexible, FX steps are temporary, and risks to growth and inflation remain live. by Aastha Gudwani, BasisPointInsight.com

1/3 A lot can change in a few days—and for the Reserve Bank of India, it did. By the time the MPC wrapped up its April meeting, a ceasefire had eased the global backdrop, but not the underlying uncertainty shaping policy.

#RBI #MonetaryPolicy #PolicyPause

BasisPointInsight.com - RBI’s Optimism Sits Uneasily with Its Own Risk Diagnosis by Dhananjay Sinha The central bank has identified how supply shocks will hit demand, yet its growth and inflation projections do not fully reflect that reality by Dhananjay Sinha, BasisPointInsight.com

1/2 RBI’s latest policy reads like a risk manual, not a growth roadmap. It clearly lays out how oil shocks and geopolitical stress can squeeze demand through the external account, financial conditions and corporate balance sheets.

#RBI #MonetaryPolicy #PolicySignals #CentralBanking #MacroStability

Romania keeps policy rate, signals higher inflation in Q2 on Middle East effects Central bank’s forward guidance showed a clear shift in tone: inflation risks are now tilted to the upside in the short term, effectively pushing expectations for monetary easing further into the future.

Central bank’s forward guidance showed a clear shift in tone: inflation risks are now tilted to the upside in the short term, effectively pushing expectations for monetary easing further into the future. Bne IntelliNews #Romania #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #CentralBank #Economy

'Disruptions In Hormuz Likely To Impact Growth': RBI Governor During MPC Meeting Speaking during the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, he flagged risks to global supply chains and energy markets.

Web Server Hosting 'Disruptions In Hormuz Likely To Impact Growth': RBI Governor During MPC Meeting Arise Server #Hormuz #EconomicGrowth #RBIGovernor #MonetaryPolicy #SupplyChain

NZ Central Bank Holds Cash Rate at 2.25% RBNZ left the official cash rate at 2.25% on Apr 8, 2026 and warned geopolitical risk from the Iran war could push up imported inflation and alter policy timing.

NZ Central Bank Holds Cash Rate at 2.25%: RBNZ left the official cash rate at 2.25% on Apr 8, 2026 and warned geopolitical risk from the Iran war could push up imported inflation and alter policy timing. 👈 Read full analysis #NewZealand #RBNZ #CashRate #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy

BasisPointInsight.com - Rupee Weakness Tests RBI, but Rate Action May Wait by Anubhuti Sahay External pressures are mounting, yet inflation dynamics and growth risks favour a wait-and-watch stance by Anubhuti Sahay, BasisPointInsight.com

2/3 Inflation is still within the target band, growth risks are rising, and the central bank has multiple tools beyond rates to manage currency volatility.

#MonetaryPolicy #ExchangeRate

ECB Radev: Too Early to Hike in April ECB policymaker Radev on Apr 7, 2026 said it's "too early" to decide on Apr 30; markets price ~53% odds for a hike and oil pressures raise inflation risks.

ECB Radev: Too Early to Hike in April: ECB policymaker Radev on Apr 7, 2026 said it's "too early" to decide on Apr 30; markets price ~53% odds for a hike and oil pressures raise inflation risks. 👈 Read full analysis #ECB #InterestRates #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #Radev

BasisPointInsight.com - RBI’s Real Test Lies Beyond Rates in a War-Driven World by Madhavankutty G Oil shock, capital outflows and a fragile rupee are recasting policy limits, forcing the RBI to defend stability beyond rates alone. by Madhavankutty G, BasisPointInsight.com

1/3 The RBI’s real test is no longer about where rates go next, but how the entire policy framework holds under stress.

#RBI #MonetaryPolicy #Rupee

Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 04/10/2026 Shocking behavior threatens stock prices and the economy.

Shocking behavior threatens stock prices and the economy.

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

#stockmarket #economicgrowth #outlook #recession #S&P500 #earnings #stockprices #forecast #monetarypolicy #AI #investments #economy $SPY $VOO $QQQ

How Should Monetary Policy Respond to the Energy Price Shock - NIESR What should monetary policy do in response to the sharp rise in oil and gas prices due to the war in Iran? This blog suggests that 2022 offers five lessons.

#EasterWeekendReading🐣🔖

In this #DirectorView blog David Aikman outlines five lessons for the current #MonetaryPolicy response to the #energyprice shock ⬇️

#UKeconomy #BankOfEngland #InterestRates

Gold overtakes US Treasuries in central bank reserves Gold has overtaken US Treasuries as the largest component of global central bank reserves for the first time since the mid-1990s, marking a significant shift in the structure of the international monetary system, Bloomberg reports.

Gold has overtaken US Treasuries as the largest component of global central bank reserves for the first time since the mid-1990s, marking a significant shift in the structure of the international monetary system, Bloomberg… Bne IntelliNews #Gold #USTreasuries #CentralBank #Investing #MonetaryPolicy

Better To Best Research Hub: Economic Innovation for Poverty Elimination Open-access research on eliminating poverty through dual-currency systems (Creative Currency Octaves), community ownership models (Public Trust Housing/Foundations), and democratic governance. 14 peer...

Basic units that expire monthly ensure circulation rather than hoarding.

This stabilizes essential goods markets and limits inflationary pressure - a feature, not a bug.

#EconSky #MonetaryPolicy #PublicPolicy #PovertyResearch

BetterToBest.github.io/research-hub/

BasisPointInsight.com - RBI Snaps Onshore–Offshore Rupee Link to Curb FX Arbitrage by V Thiagarajan Curbs on NDFs and rebooking may steady the rupee in the near term, but risk widening onshore-offshore gaps and unsettling foreign investors by V Thiagarajan, BasisPointInsight.com

1/2 The RBI has effectively broken the link between onshore and offshore rupee markets to curb arbitrage. It may stabilise the currency in the near term, but it also weakens a key channel of price discovery and liquidity that markets had come to rely on.

#MonetaryPolicy #FXMarkets #GlobalMarkets

Upward bias in inflation perceptions persists Andre, Schaffranka, Weber: Elevated inflation perceptions after the surge are a common but mostly harmless phenomenon

In a new SAFE Finance Blog post, researchers show that households in the euro area systematically overestimate inflation—even near the #ECB’s 2% target.

Why it matters:
perceptions shape spending, saving, and wages, making them key for #monetarypolicy.

👉 safe-frankfurt.de/news-latest/...

Central banks are showing divergent monetary policy approaches; for instance, the ECB is holding rates steady despite inflation risks from energy. This is a calculated gamble on economic stability. ⚖️ #CentralBanks #MonetaryPolicy

Halving the fuel excise is smart politics, but flawed policy The changes announced by the prime minister won’t help with supply and are poorly targeted.

Smart politics, flawed policy. What would better policy look like regarding easing pressure on the oil crisis? @theconversation.com #economics #fiscalpolicy #monetarypolicy

Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 04/03/2026 The casualties of the growing war in Iran increasingly includes stocks and the US economy.

The casualties of the war in Iran increasingly include stocks and the US economy.

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

#stockmarket #economicgrowth #outlook #recession #S&P500 #earnings #stockprices #forecast #monetarypolicy #AI #investments #economy $SPY $VOO $QQQ

Fed's Policy Options Narrow as Market Strain Grows Fed faces constrained choices as S&P down ~10% (Mar 29, 2026) and private credit AUM near $1.2tn (Preqin Dec 2023); urgent analysis of spillovers to CRE and systemic risk.

Fed's Policy Options Narrow as Market Strain Grows: Fed faces constrained choices as S&P down ~10% (Mar 29, 2026) and private credit AUM near $1.2tn (Preqin Dec 2023); urgent analysis of spillovers to CRE… 👈 Read full analysis #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicAnalysis #MarketTrends #SandP500

Figure 5: Geographic Distribution of Automation and Robots, 2007 - 2020 These figures shows the maps with all transactions of automation technologies (Panel A) and industrial robots imported (Panel B) in volume in 2007-2019 by county, excluding import from logistic firms.

This paper analyzes how #financial constraints affect firms' #automation adoption, focusing on responses to #macroeconomic shocks like the 2012-2015 Japanese yen depreciation & #monetarypolicy changes.

Read: spkl.io/63322AFGvm
Subscribe: spkl.io/63326AFGvq

ECB Schnabel Says No Need to Rush on Rates Isabel Schnabel on Mar 27, 2026 said the ECB "has time to analyze the data"; ECB's 2% inflation target remains the anchor (InvestingLive, Mar 27, 2026).

ECB Schnabel Says No Need to Rush on Rates: Isabel Schnabel on Mar 27, 2026 said the ECB "has time to analyze the data"; ECB's 2% inflation target remains the anchor (InvestingLive, Mar 27, 2026). 👈 Read full analysis #ECB #InterestRates #InflationTarget #IsabelSchnabel #MonetaryPolicy

BOJ Re-estimates Japan Natural Rate at -0.9%–+0.5% BOJ places Japan's natural rate at -0.9% to +0.5% as of Q3 2025 (BOJ, Mar 27, 2026); this moderates deep-negative r-star narratives and affects policy calibration toward the 2% inflation goal.

BOJ Re-estimates Japan Natural Rate at -0.9%–+0.5%: BOJ places Japan's natural rate at -0.9% to +0.5% as of Q3 2025 (BOJ, Mar 27, 2026); this moderates deep-negative r-star narratives and affects policy… 👈 Read full analysis #BOJ #JapanEconomy #InflationTarget #NaturalRate #MonetaryPolicy

BOJ Adds Monthly Core-CPI Indicators to Toolkit BOJ will publish five monthly CPI indicators from Mar 26, 2026; first release used to argue core inflation remains above 2.0%, forcing markets to reassess policy bets.

BOJ Adds Monthly Core-CPI Indicators to Toolkit: BOJ will publish five monthly CPI indicators from Mar 26, 2026; first release used to argue core inflation remains above 2.0%, forcing markets to reassess policy bets. 👈 Read full analysis #BOJ #CPI #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicIndicators