Treasury Market Under Scrutiny
Rising federal debt sparks concerns as ratio hits 100% of GDP, expected to climb further
#TreasuryMarket #FederalDebt #USFiscalPolicy

https://a777.lt/JoVtBX

DTCC’s FICC says it is scaled for Treasury clearing but flags open issues on inter‑affiliate scope and double‑margining DTCC officials told lawmakers FICC processed record daily volumes and has implemented access and margining changes for SEC‑mandated Treasury clearing but identified open questions on inter‑affiliate exemptions and double‑margining that could affect some firms' ability to migrate by the deadlines.

DTCC’s FICC is ready for a massive shift in Treasury clearing, but critical regulatory questions could impact firms' migrations—are you prepared for the changes ahead?

Click to read more!

#US #MarketStability #FinancialRegulation #CitizenPortal #TreasuryMarket #RiskManagement

📈 Major Reports: GDP Q3 estimate, Durable Goods, Personal Income/Spending.
🏦 Central Bank: Fed speeches on policy, supervision.
💹 Treasury & Market: Note auctions, market indices.

#USeconomy #GDP #FedSpeeches #TreasuryMarket
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Trump’s efforts to remove Fed governor set to test Treasury market By Davide Barbuscia NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. bond investors expect President Donald Trump’s latest attempt to exert control over the Federal Reserve to push down the value of long-dated U.S. debt on concerns that an overly dovish U.S. central bank may lose its grip on inflation. Late on Monday, Trump took his battle against the central bank to an unprecedented extreme with his effort to fire Governor Lisa Cook over questions raised over mortgages she took out before she joined the Fed. The bid to remove Cook comes as part of the relentless pressure Trump has put on the Fed to lower interest rates since he returned to the White House this year. The move could kick off a protracted legal battle, but ousting Cook would give Trump’s Fed appointees a board majority that could sway future Fed leadership. "Implications if this were to go through would be a relatively more dovish leaning board of governors and FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), which potentially could mean looser-than-necessary monetary policy resulting in lower short-end yields but higher longer-term yields," said John Madziyire, head of U.S. Treasuries and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities at Vanguard. "This will result in higher term premiums on increased inflation expectations and higher uncertainty," he said, referring to the premium investors demand for the risk of owning long-dated U.S. debt securities rather than short-term ones. The reaction to Trump’s announcement on Cook was relatively muted on Tuesday due to uncertainty over whether his effort will be successful. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were roughly unchanged day on day at about 4.26%. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. However, key parts of the Treasury yield curve steepened as short-term Treasury yields declined on stronger expectations of an imminent easing in monetary policy, and longer-dated yields rose on concerns that aggressive interest rate cuts could lead to higher long-term inflation. Yields rise when prices fall. The closely watched yield curve comparing two- and 10-year Treasury yields steepened to its highest since April intraday on Tuesday, while the premium of 30-year yields over two-year yields surged to its highest since early 2022. "We see further scope for Trump’s challenge to the Fed’s independence to push (the) term premium high and steepen the yield curve," BMO Capital Markets analysts said in a note on Tuesday. While inflation has been trending lower in recent years after hitting a 40-year high in 2022, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target, reducing the Fed’s ability to cut rates aggressively despite a weakening in the labor market. Any excessive rate cuts could trigger a bond market response, as investors would lose confidence in the central bank’s inflation-control focus. "The bond market will likely punish cutting at the wrong time," said Tim Urbanowicz, chief investment strategist at Innovator Capital Management. Concerns over a loss of Fed independence could be exacerbated by surging U.S. government debt levels, at a time when investors are already weighing the risk of "fiscal dominance," a scenario where keeping government financing cheap eclipses the fight against inflation. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. "If public debt is high, there’s some temptation by government to use its influence on (the) central bank to revive growth and get a bit more inflation to erode the real value of its debt," said Gilles Moec, chief economist at AXA. "Down the road this is going to become counterproductive because it will result in higher long-term rates,” he said. Successful investors know to check multiple angles before making their move. InvestingPro's three powerful features work together to give you that edge: ProPicks AI runs 80+ stock-picking strategies, including Tech Titans, which doubled the S&P 500's performance in just 18 months! Fair Value combines 17 proven valuation models to help you spot overpriced stocks and undervalued gems. And WarrenAI delivers instant insights on any stock. Ask questions, get vetted answers backed by real-time data (unlike ChatGPT). Our subscribers use all three to identify stocks before double-digit gains and avoid costly mistakes. But with 50% during our Summer Sale, even if you only use one of these features the value pays for itself. Sale ends soon—don't wait until prices go back up.

Click Subscribe. #Trump #FederalReserve #TreasuryMarket #Economy #Finance

Foreign Holdings Of US Treasuries Hit Record $9.13 Trillion In June 2025 - BigBreakingWire Foreign investors increased their holdings of US Treasury securities to a record $9.13 trillion in June 2025, according to new data from the US Treasury…

Foreign holdings of US Treasuries hit a record $9.13T in June. Japan tops with $1.15T, UK $858.1B, China $756.4B, Belgium $433.4B, India down to $227.4B. Foreigners now own 30%+ of US debt despite an 11% dollar drop, the steepest since 1973.

#TreasuryMarket #BondMarket #TreasuryHoldings

Read 👇🏻

#TreasuryMarket Deep Dive!

Slim reveals a potential swing trade setup & critical timing for investors on #InterestRates & 10-year notes. Essential viewing!

Watch: 👇 youtu.be/s3jMmlSQIhs
#Bonds #Trading #Investing

3 Bloomberg: The next test of #investor #sentiment comes soon, with a #Treasury #auction of $39 billion of #10-year notes today followed by $22 billion of #30-year #bonds tomorrow. An offering of three-year #securities yesterday met with soft demand #markets #TreasuryMarket

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Trump’s $3.3T megabill passed the Senate.

Yields jumped right after:
• 10-year: +3 bps
• 30-year: +3 bps
• 2-year: +1 bps

Markets expect more debt, more volatility.

The House is next.
#markets #bonds #treasurymarket #investing #stockmarketnews #wealthwavedigest

9/10 Government spending plans will "add trillions of dollars to the deficit" precisely when investors are backing away from U.S. assets. This threatens the Treasury market's stability and the dollar's role as a global safe haven.
#DeficitSpending #TreasuryMarket

3/6
Treasury issuance is under review as current rates exceed long-term averages.
Q: "We are more than one standard deviation above the long-term rate. Why would we do that?"

#InterestRates #TreasuryMarket #Finance

Bank Failure Risks Now Surge on New Regulatory Rollback  Explore the implications of bank failure risks as U.S. regulators consider reducing capital requirements for major banks.

Bank Failure Risks Now Surge on New Regulatory Rollback


#BankFailures #FinancialCrisis #CapitalRequirements #USBanking #EconomicRisks #FederalReserve #MarketStability #SystemicRisk #BankingIndustry #TreasuryMarket #FinancialRegulations #InvestorConcerns #Post2008Crisis #MarketNews #News

Click Subscribe. #Banking #Finance #TreasuryMarket #Investing #Economy

Lowering the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) to boost Treasury market stability may bring unintended risks. Reducing capital requirements could encourage banks to take on more leverage, increasing systemic risk and making the financial system more vulnerable to shocks. #TreasuryMarket

Chartbook 370: Is a "Treasury market unwind" in progress? Wednesday morning and the overnight fin-fi panic. (Part 2) A specter is stalking global financial markets.

“On Monday a #Treasurymarket unwind was nightmarish “fin-fi”. Then we identify culprits. Issues converge. We cross thresholds. And come Tuesday/Wednesday here we are. The boogeyman is getting more and more real.” open.substack.com/pub/adamtooz...

Will the World Keep Buying US Treasuries? | by Paola Subacchi & Paul van den Noord - Project Syndicate Paola Subacchi & Paul van den Noord foresee a gradual reduction in countries’ holdings of dollar-denominated debt, not a rapid sell-off.

“While the #Treasurymarket and the #USdollar have so far held up relatively well, further reductions in countries’ #US #debt holdings could push #Treasury #yields higher, weaken the #dollar, and threaten the stability of the #international #financialsystem” www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/i...

⚠️ Treasury Shorts Are Crowded

📊 Hedge funds hold record-short positions in Treasuries.

🌀 If rates drop, expect a massive short squeeze.

⛵️ Everyone’s on one side – watch for a flip.

#TreasuryMarket #ShortSqueeze

3 Bloomberg: While #Powell said “the economy’s fine” two weeks ago, #traders will scrutinize his comments and officials’ revised forecasts, known as the #dot-plot, for cracks in that view. #TreasuryMarket #bonds #markets #bondmarkets #Fed #USTs

1 Bloomberg: traders in the $27 trillion #Treasurymarket are betting on higher long-term #bondyields as #WallStreet starts to adjust for Donald #Trump’s potential return to the White House. 🧵
#bonds #markets #bondmarket

Top Links 453 The US Treasury market, the economics and politics of France's historic election, AI power demands and the Hajj heat disaster. Great links, images and reading from Chartbook newsletter.

“The size of the US #Treasurymarket has quintupled since the financial crisis, in an indication of how much the #US has turned to #debt financing over the past 15 years.” adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-...