Before Operation Epic Fury began on Feb. 28, Iranian officials and regime-aligned analysts leaned heavily into rhetoric that echoed Syria's civil war. The protests, they claimed, were not organic but the crafty work of foreign agents working for enemies - namely the United States and Israel - determined to break Iran up into fragments and plunge it into chaos by ousting its government.
Ironically, this narrative conveniently ignores Tehran's own role in Syria for more than a decade before Ahmad al-Sharaa and his Islamist rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, ousted Assad in December
2024. The IRG Quds Force was instrumental in propping up Assad, their top regional ally, enabling numerous massacres of Syrian civilians. Iranian officials, such as the IRC's new commander Ahmad Vahidi and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, seemed to copy and paste Assad-era rhetoric, blaming
"terrorists" and the Islamic State group for the deaths inflicted by state security forces - the IRGC and its Basij paramilitary force. The fearmongering by Iranian officials was meant to silence Iranian protesters and those operating in the "gray space" - Iranians who don't want the clerical establishment but worry that protests will fail and leave them in prison. Meanwhile, those already on the streets chanted, "Basij, IRGC, you are our Islamic State."
What distinguishes this latest round is the scale of the killing by security forces. The regime's lackeys wielded knives and machetes alongside military-grade weapons, firing indiscriminately at peaceful protesters and also bystanders running errands. This violence mostly occurred under the cover of a communications shutdown designed to conceal the regime's atrocities and blunt the outrage of the Iranian people, some of whom have been so brutalized that they opted to sing and dance in protest rather than mourn their slain loved ones, suggesting that the fear machine of the Islamic Republic might finally be losing effectiveness.
And as fear dwindled, fury rose in response to the Assad-style atrocities. Iranians reported that protesters' corpses were treated like lumps of meat, dumped in piles from ice cream vans and meat trucks, forcing relatives to search for their loved ones in the most dehumanizing way. One father reportedly spent at least 12 minutes looking for his dead son, calling out repeatedly, "My dear Sepehr, where are you, son?" A channel associated with state media took it upon itself to mock the deaths of the protesters by asking a macabre multiple-choice question: "Which refrigerator does the Islamic Republic keep the bodies in?"
Authorities reportedly charged exorbitant sums to families of killed protesters and even forced them to sign paperwork that claimed they were martyred members of the Basij. The Assad regime also used to control public displays of mourning for those killed by its own security (or by IRGC proxy Hezbollah or by Russian airstrikes), forcing grieving families to limit or cancel burial rights and to falsely proclaim that their loved ones were "killed by terrorists," the de facto way of referring to antiregime dissenters, or that they merely died in a random "accident." In Iran, forcing mourners to count their dead among the Basij may help explain the rise in the death toll among Iran's security forces - 207, according to the nongovernmental organization Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRAI). Reports emerged that families of detained protesters were forced to attend state rallies marking the anniversary of the 1979 Iranian Revolution on Feb. 11 if they wanted their relatives to be released or spared from execution, or to have their sentences reduced. And yet, despite this repressive atmosphere, Iranians continued to defy the regime. In mid-February, they marked 40 days since the deaths of protesters, and in some cases were fired upon by security forces, while there were further protests at numerous prominent universities across Iran at the end of the month - even as the threat of war loomed over the country.
Iranians reported that authorities also pushed for
"dafneh dasteh jami," or mass graves, to hide the true death toll from the uprising. Some corpses weren't even given the dignity of a body bag, presumably because authorities ran out. Some protesters who dared to enter a hospital with injuries, knowing they could be arrested afterward, were reportedly shot point-blank in the head; they were discovered at the morgues and forensic centers with catheters and medical devices still attached. Doctors and nurses were also detained for treating protesters. The messages that poured out of Iran in January were always the same: What the media reported was only a sliver of what transpired across all 31 provinces.
According to HRAI, at least 6,488 protesters were killed, with another 11,744 cases under review - now delayed by the war - with more than 53,000 arrests.
The U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in Iran, Mai Soto, suggested that the number may exceed 20,000, while anonymous senior officials within the Health Ministry said it may exceed 30,000. By even the most conservative estimates, the regime killed more people in December and January than during the 1979 revolution itself. "You have to go back to Agha Muhammad Khan in the 1790s to witness a similar intensity of violence meted out by the Iranian state against its people," Ali Ansari, director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St.
Andrews, told me.
What the Islamic Republic learned about repression from Syria: Iran helped the Assad regime crush unarmed protests with staggering violence starting 2011. Now, it has turned those same tactics on its own people newlinesmag.com/argument/wha... By @hdagres.bsky.social #Islamism #Baathism